Lookin' very sheared!
SE Indian Ocean: TC Daryl
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.8S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.6S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.8S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.3S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AND THEN TURN POLEWARD NEAR TAU 48 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CREATED BY A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z,
222100Z AND 230300Z.//
THE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES ROLLING DOWN!
0 likes
-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Cat 1.
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 41
Issued at 5:45 pm WST on Sunday, 22 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas from
Exmouth to Ningaloo.
At 5pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
195 kilometres northwest of Onslow and
165 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth
moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Daryl is tracking parallel to the coast and is expected remain
well offshore, gradually weakening in the next 24 hours. However, gales with
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could briefly reach Exmouth later this evening
or in the early hours of Monday morning.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Daryl at 5PM WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 20.5 South Longitude 113.7 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 986 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 1.
The next warning will be issued by 9PM WST Sunday 22 January.
The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in coastal communities at Exmouth are advised
that the BLUE alert has been lifted.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 41
Issued at 5:45 pm WST on Sunday, 22 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas from
Exmouth to Ningaloo.
At 5pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
195 kilometres northwest of Onslow and
165 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth
moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Daryl is tracking parallel to the coast and is expected remain
well offshore, gradually weakening in the next 24 hours. However, gales with
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could briefly reach Exmouth later this evening
or in the early hours of Monday morning.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Daryl at 5PM WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 20.5 South Longitude 113.7 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 986 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 1.
The next warning will be issued by 9PM WST Sunday 22 January.
The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in coastal communities at Exmouth are advised
that the BLUE alert has been lifted.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.7S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.5S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 113.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BOTH MICRO-
WAVE AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 24. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 18 FEET.
THE JTWC SAYS "BYE, BYE" TO DARYL!
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 42
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Sunday, 22 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
The CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE has now been cancelled.
At 8pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
165 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Daryl is expected to move further away from the Australian
mainland and gradually weaken into a tropical low over the next 24 hours.
Sustained gale force winds are no longer expected in the Exmouth area.
No further tropical cyclone advices are anticipated for Tropical Cyclone Daryl.
Some rain and wind impacts may occur over the Southwest Land Division in a few
days time, after the system has lost its tropical cyclone characteristics. If
required, separate severe weather warnings will be broadcast.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Daryl at 8PM WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 20.7 South Longitude 113.2 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 988 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 110 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 1.
The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in coastal communities at Exmouth are advised
that the BLUE alert has been lifted.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 42
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Sunday, 22 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
The CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE has now been cancelled.
At 8pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
165 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Daryl is expected to move further away from the Australian
mainland and gradually weaken into a tropical low over the next 24 hours.
Sustained gale force winds are no longer expected in the Exmouth area.
No further tropical cyclone advices are anticipated for Tropical Cyclone Daryl.
Some rain and wind impacts may occur over the Southwest Land Division in a few
days time, after the system has lost its tropical cyclone characteristics. If
required, separate severe weather warnings will be broadcast.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Daryl at 8PM WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 20.7 South Longitude 113.2 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 988 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 110 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 1.
The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in coastal communities at Exmouth are advised
that the BLUE alert has been lifted.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0052UTC 23 JANUARY 2006
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twenty one decimal nine south [21.9S]
Longitude one hundred and eleven decimal seven east [111.7E]
Recent movement: southwest 10 knots.
Maximum winds: 40 knots.
Central pressure: 988 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 200 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants.
FORECAST
SE to SW winds 30/40 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. Winds
easing below 34 knots by 1200UTC 23 January.
At 1200UTC 23 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 23.1 south 109.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000UTC 24 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 24.5 south 108.1 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 0700UTC 23 January 2006.
WEATHER PERTH
FOR DARYL SINCE THE ROLLER COASTER INCLINED DOWNWARD, THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A "UP" FOR THE CYCLONE! DISSIPATION SEEMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0052UTC 23 JANUARY 2006
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twenty one decimal nine south [21.9S]
Longitude one hundred and eleven decimal seven east [111.7E]
Recent movement: southwest 10 knots.
Maximum winds: 40 knots.
Central pressure: 988 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 200 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants.
FORECAST
SE to SW winds 30/40 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. Winds
easing below 34 knots by 1200UTC 23 January.
At 1200UTC 23 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 23.1 south 109.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000UTC 24 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 24.5 south 108.1 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 0700UTC 23 January 2006.
WEATHER PERTH
FOR DARYL SINCE THE ROLLER COASTER INCLINED DOWNWARD, THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A "UP" FOR THE CYCLONE! DISSIPATION SEEMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Down to a tropical low.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0629UTC 23 JANUARY 2006
CANCELLATION OF
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 15 nautical miles of
Latitude twenty three decimal two south [23.2S]
Longitude one hundred and ten decimal two east [110.2E]
Recent movement: southwest 15 knots.
Maximum winds: 30 knots.
Central pressure: 990 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 200 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants.
FORECAST
Winds associated with ex-TC Daryl have eased below 34 knots.
No further warnings will be issued for this system.
WEATHER PERTH
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0629UTC 23 JANUARY 2006
CANCELLATION OF
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 15 nautical miles of
Latitude twenty three decimal two south [23.2S]
Longitude one hundred and ten decimal two east [110.2E]
Recent movement: southwest 15 knots.
Maximum winds: 30 knots.
Central pressure: 990 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 200 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants.
FORECAST
Winds associated with ex-TC Daryl have eased below 34 knots.
No further warnings will be issued for this system.
WEATHER PERTH
0 likes
Good bye you where a good cyclone! Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], ljmac75 and 72 guests