cat 4 or 5 question

[kba981]

what are the odds for a major hurricane hittting se florida ( palm beach )

[gatorcane]

what are the odds for a major hurricane hittting se florida ( palm beach )

Based on statistical analysis over the past 100 years, Palm Beach is in region 6 which is HIGH RISK. Looks like about a 28% chance for a major and that is statistically one of the highest probabilities in the entire U.S.

County (High) Information
Name Palm Beach FL
Region 6
Region - Coastline Distance 483
Region - 2000 Population 5,213,884
Region - Named Storms (1900-1999) 47
Region - Prob. 1 or More NS 70.4% (36.1%)
Region - Prob. 2 or More NS 14.6% (7.5%)
Region - Hurricanes (1900-1999) 34
Region - Prob. 1 or More H 53.9% (27.7%)
Region - Prob. 2 or More H 8.3% (4.2%)
Region - Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 16
Region - Prob. 1 or More IH 27.6% (14.1%)
Region - Prob. 2 or More IH 2.0% (1.0%)
Region - Prob. TS Force 76.3% (28.9%)
Region - 50 Year TS Prob. 100.0%
Region - NS Vicinity Prob. 99.9% (92.6%)
Region - Prob. H Force 23.5% (8.9%)
Region - 50 Year H Prob. 99.1%
Region - H Vicinity Prob. 87.9% (55.1%)
Region - Prob. IH Force 6.3% (2.4%)
Region - 50 Year IH Prob. 70.3%
Region - IH Vicinity Prob. 43.5% (19.4%)
Subregion:1 6d
Subregion - Coastline Distance (km) 64
Subregion - 2000 Population 1,131,184
Subregion - Prob. TS Force 10.1% (3.8%)
Subregion - Prob. TS Vicinity 59.7% (29.2%)
Subregion - 50 Year TS Prob. 85.8%
Subregion - Prob. H Force 3.1% (1.2%)
Subregion - Prob. H Vicinity 24.4% (10.1%)
Subregion - 50 Year H Prob. 44.7%
Subregion - Prob. IH Force 0.8% (0.3%)
Subregion - Prob. IH Vicinity 7.3% (2.8%)
Subregion - 50 Year IH Prob. 14.7%
County - Coastline Distance (km) 64
County - Inland Border Width (km) ---
County - 2000 Population 1,131,184
County - Prob. TS Force 10.1% (3.8%)
County - Prob. TS Vicinity 59.7% (29.2%)
County - 50 Year TS Prob. 85.8%
County - Prob. H Force 3.1% (1.2%)
County - Prob. H Vicinity 24.4% (10.1%)
County - 50 Year H Prob. 44.7%
County - Prob. IH Force 0.8% (0.3%)
County - Prob. IH Vicinity 7.3% (2.8%)
County - 50 Year IH Prob. 14.7%

[kba981]

wow thats not good

[JPmia]

what are the odds for a major hurricane hittting se florida ( palm beach )

Based on statistical analysis over the past 100 years, Palm Beach is in region 6 which is HIGH RISK. Looks like about a 28% chance for a major and that is statistically one of the highest probabilities in the entire U.S.

County (High) Information
Name Palm Beach FL
Region 6
Region - Coastline Distance 483
Region - 2000 Population 5,213,884
Region - Named Storms (1900-1999) 47
Region - Prob. 1 or More NS 70.4% (36.1%)
Region - Prob. 2 or More NS 14.6% (7.5%)
Region - Hurricanes (1900-1999) 34
Region - Prob. 1 or More H 53.9% (27.7%)
Region - Prob. 2 or More H 8.3% (4.2%)
Region - Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 16
Region - Prob. 1 or More IH 27.6% (14.1%)
Region - Prob. 2 or More IH 2.0% (1.0%)
Region - Prob. TS Force 76.3% (28.9%)
Region - 50 Year TS Prob. 100.0%
Region - NS Vicinity Prob. 99.9% (92.6%)
Region - Prob. H Force 23.5% (8.9%)
Region - 50 Year H Prob. 99.1%
Region - H Vicinity Prob. 87.9% (55.1%)
Region - Prob. IH Force 6.3% (2.4%)
Region - 50 Year IH Prob. 70.3%
Region - IH Vicinity Prob. 43.5% (19.4%)
Subregion:1 6d
Subregion - Coastline Distance (km) 64
Subregion - 2000 Population 1,131,184
Subregion - Prob. TS Force 10.1% (3.8%)
Subregion - Prob. TS Vicinity 59.7% (29.2%)
Subregion - 50 Year TS Prob. 85.8%
Subregion - Prob. H Force 3.1% (1.2%)
Subregion - Prob. H Vicinity 24.4% (10.1%)
Subregion - 50 Year H Prob. 44.7%
Subregion - Prob. IH Force 0.8% (0.3%)
Subregion - Prob. IH Vicinity 7.3% (2.8%)
Subregion - 50 Year IH Prob. 14.7%
County - Coastline Distance (km) 64
County - Inland Border Width (km) ---
County - 2000 Population 1,131,184
County - Prob. TS Force 10.1% (3.8%)
County - Prob. TS Vicinity 59.7% (29.2%)
County - 50 Year TS Prob. 85.8%
County - Prob. H Force 3.1% (1.2%)
County - Prob. H Vicinity 24.4% (10.1%)
County - 50 Year H Prob. 44.7%
County - Prob. IH Force 0.8% (0.3%)
County - Prob. IH Vicinity 7.3% (2.8%)
County - 50 Year IH Prob. 14.7%

Yes, when you combine Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Broward the stats. show that consistently have the highest chance of a hurricane every year. You only have to look at the map that is associated with this data above. Also, that is why we pay so much for windstorm insurance as well.

[PTPatrick]

when Dennis headed for Mobile as a Cat 4 I decided to stay put, at least 15 miles from Mobile bay and about 30 from the gulf...High and dry basically. The house was sturdy, although, old with old style windows. So I basically set up a matress in the windowless hall just in case things got hairy. Of course I didnt end up needing it.

Katrina I stayed as well, even when I thought we could get her as a 5. I kind of had to because I am a hospital worker, but I chose to stay home rather than the hospital for comfort reasons, and my hospital, isnt the greatest(flash flooding issues,and a roof that leaks in a heavy t'storm).

[kba981]

[windycity]

So, question, how many of you would stay in the event of a cat 4-5? Lets dont be judgemental on answers, im just curious on everyones plans. Im staying, but where i know we will be safe.

[Dustin]

No. You should all leave... The winds would be enough to take any tree down, and unless your house is all brick, and concerte enforced, you had iron shutters, on the house, and hid in a middle floor closet or bathroom through out the storm I would suggest you leave. Now if it were me, I am a hardcore hurricane entusisast, and as a bachelor, I would stay in the home, with a lot of preperations. Thats a tough call, if you really love mother nature, and if you stay alone, that would be up to your better judge ment so to say.

[terstorm1012]

I'd stay...I'm 200 miles inland in a sturdy highrise building in an area that hasn't seen real hurricane force winds since Hurricane Hazel. For me, leaving would be pointless. The storm would be here and gone in under 2 hours, they move that fast. The only thing that would make me leave would be flooding like with Agnes, the neighborhood I live in was under 10 feet of water, but the Cat 4 would have to stall out and I don't forsee that occuring. Plus I use public transportation, I don't drive.

If I move to Miami, depending on where I lived in that area, I'd stay or ride it out with relatives who know more about it then I do. If the relatives leave, then I would leave with them.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I think the question is moot.

IF you are anywhere near the coast, where it would actually make landfall as a full-blown 5, or even high-end 4, and you stay, it seems to me that would be taking a foolish risk. That said, were I to live more than 30 miles from landfall, and well above any flood zone, and in a sturdy home that does NOT have massive trees that could fall on my roof/house, I, too would ride it out. The thing is, that by the time the storm would reach that far inland, it is HIGHLY unlikely sustained winds would still be a strong 4, much less a 5. I don't believe there is a wind profile of ANY storm that maintained winds of such speeds more than a few miles off the coast, because if you have "sustained" winds of over 150 mph, you simply are NOT safe, unless you live in something akin to a bomb shelter. Just look at the pictures of Gallatin Tennessee, today--estimated winds of 150-200 mph and you'll have a good idea what these kinds of winds can do! Flying debris, and the potential for roof/home destruction would be extremely high, and I doubt that would be a wise choice of action.

Ask any person who has actually HAD the misfortune to have been in an actual strong 4, or 5 right near the COC at landfall, (not just any person who happened to be somewhere in the path of the wind fields of Andrew or Camille or even Charley --but actually right there at ground zero for landfall) and I doubt you would find ONE, who would say they'd ride out that kind of storm again--it is beyond terrifying. I know, as I know folks who were in Homestead for Andrew, and they would NEVER stay for ANY kind of major storm again. I've heard pretty much the same from many others who've actually been in the heart of a landfalling 3--IN the COC.

Again, I reiterate: despite what some would like to believe, winds in the high end of 4, to full 5 do NOT last very long after landfall, and if you're well inland, no matter what the storm is at actual landfall, (and I know a lot of folks would still claim they rode out a 4 or 5) you will NOT be in a Cat 5 when it gets to you--and that is a GOOD thing.

A2K

[Scorpion]

Being 3 miles from the coast, I am sure the winds would not weaken much by the time they got to me. I would still stay, however. A2K is right, most people who think they get Cat 5 winds actually got Cat 3 winds. Cat 2-3 winds are devastating and can level unprotected structures.

[CHRISTY]

I think the question is moot.

IF you are anywhere near the coast, where it would actually make landfall as a full-blown 5, or even high-end 4, and you stay, it seems to me that would be taking a foolish risk. That said, were I to live more than 30 miles from landfall, and well above any flood zone, and in a sturdy home that does NOT have massive trees that could fall on my roof/house, I, too would ride it out. The thing is, that by the time the storm would reach that far inland, it is HIGHLY unlikely sustained winds would still be a strong 4, much less a 5. I don't believe there is a wind profile of ANY storm that maintained winds of such speeds more than a few miles off the coast, because if you have "sustained" winds of over 150 mph, you simply are NOT safe, unless you live in something akin to a bomb shelter. Just look at the pictures of Gallatin Tennessee, today--estimated winds of 150-200 mph and you'll have a good idea what these kinds of winds can do! Flying debris, and the potential for roof/home destruction would be extremely high, and I doubt that would be a wise choice of action.

Ask any person who has actually HAD the misfortune to have been in an actual strong 4, or 5 right near the COC at landfall, (not just any person who happened to be somewhere in the path of the wind fields of Andrew or Camille or even Charley --but actually right there at ground zero for landfall) and I doubt you would find ONE, who would say they'd ride out that kind of storm again--it is beyond terrifying. I know, as I know folks who were in Homestead for Andrew, and they would NEVER stay for ANY kind of major storm again. I've heard pretty much the same from many others who've actually been in the heart of a landfalling 3--IN the COC.

Again, I reiterate: despite what some would like to believe, winds in the high end of 4, to full 5 do NOT last very long after landfall, and if you're well inland, no matter what the storm is at actual landfall, (and I know a lot of folks would still claim they rode out a 4 or 5) you will NOT be in a Cat 5 when it gets to you--and that is a GOOD thing.

A2K

well as an andrew survivor i can tell u that was the worst night my familys ever been threw!it was truly a very scary situation all u could here was those howling winds that would simply would not go away,my husband spent almost the whole night with his back to the door so the wind would not bust it open we lived in a moble home and we chose to stay which was truly a horrible mistake we ended up losing almost all of our roof 1 sofa my bedroom was a total loss i mean it was like a nightmare!once the sun came up and i went outside for the first time it was like a BOMB was dropped in my area!iam very thankful we made it threw that experience because material things can always be replaced but u only live once thats why i truly feel always tell your loved ones that love them very much because tommorow is not for sure.and in 2005 i lost my sister in NEW ORLEANS because of hurricane katrina so its really been very hard to move on after these hard times ive been threw but thankfully now me and my husband live in a 2 bedroom house with my princess which is my daughter.

[Ixolib]

.....Cat 2-3 winds are devastating and can level unprotected structures.

If by "unprotected" you mean dilapidated, poorly built, in the surge zone, or made of balsa wood, I'd agree.

However, MANY MANY MANY structures can and do survive cat 2-3 "winds" and will live to see even more cat 2-3 conditions in their future. Straight-line winds alone - even cat 5 strength - do not "level everything in their path". The leveling takes place when there is surge, tornadoes, and perhaps even extreme gusts. Otherwise, lots of structures will make it through to see another sunrise...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Quote: Scorpion: [Being 3 miles from the coast, I am sure the winds would not weaken much by the time they got to me.]

That is certainly your choice to make. And given certain circumstances, I might do the same. I'd have to check the topography of the area, and what lay between me and the shoreline. Again, were I sufficiently high enough above any possible surge (as close as 3 mi to shore it would need to be at least 50 ft--just being certain) and one sturdy structure for me to take that risk.

As far as how much the winds would degrade before they reached you, doubtless they wouldn't very much over a 3 land stretch, but they can degrade fairly rapidly after landfall, and most storms begin to degrade before they actually make that full landfall. (Before anyone jumps on that one, I KNOW there are and have been exceptions, but they are just that, more the exception than the rule). The chances of your seeing sustained winds over 155 are minimal at best, IMO, where you would be; but unless I lived in one very sturdy structure, I don't think I'd stay if something were barelling my way with, say 160-170 mph winds. A Cat 4, probably I would.

Ixolib brings a valid point as well. I lived in an old shotgun house in New Orleans that has withstood storms since the late 1800's when it as constructed. It certainly isn't a bomb shelter; but it was well built and survived many storms in over a century of it's existence. It's still standing, even after Katrina; but I doubt it'll survive the reconstruction that will take place in the 9th Ward after all this destruction around it. And there are many homes of friends I've had throughout Mississppi, and Louisiana that have survived several encounters with storms of 1,2, and even 3 strength. But winds steady over 155 mph, are MUCH rarer than people realize, and while they won't destroy "everything" (heck, even SOME structures in Gallatin are still standing), the question you must ask yourself is, "Do I want to take the risk of being lucky enough to be in one of those surviving structures?" --remember, that's ONLY should you be staring a bona-fide Cat 5 coming at you right off the water--I've already said that were I far enough from the water, and a few miles inland to where I know some degradation will have taken place--I, too, would sit it out.

A2K

[GeneratorPower]

Remember, too, that it's not just surviving the storm. The living conditions after the storm can be terrible. 90 degree summertime heat with 100% humidity, no air conditioning, and a refrigerator full of spoiled food. No water. No gasoline. No food. No power. And a house that's damaged and probably has a leaky roof. Yes, life is good in a hurricane zone. I know some people who are well prepared and have good stockpiles of necessities, and a generator. So life is bearable.

The best course of action might be to empty out your fridge, tie everything down, lock up and get out. And of course, make sure you know what your insurance policy covers and doesn't cover.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another thing to think about is flying debris. If you live near a highly populated city or suburb, the debris that fly by are much more likely to do damage than if you lived in an open field. A 100mph wind blowing shingles, rocks and aluminum at your house will do much more damage than a 100mph wind blowing no debris toward your house. So if you live in an area where things will be blowing around, I would take that into consideration.

[JPmia]

Bottomline is this, if you plan to evacuate for a Cat 4 or 5 and you live in South FL, plan to leave 4-5 days before the storm. There is no way 5 million of us can evacuate the day before, 2 days, or 3 days before the storm. I don't want to be here for a Cat. 4 or 5, but I am not sure there will be enough time to get out; especially if it is developing quickly. There in lies the potential catastrophie for South Floridians.

[JPmia]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -news-sfla


This is a rather timely article. Seems many think they are ok with a Cat. 4 & 5. Boy do they have a rude awakening coming some day.

[Derek Ortt]

the Andrew evacuation was handled in just a few hours, though

as for what I would do, very likely just another hurricane on the causeway at the office. Key Biscayne would take the brunt of the surge (the whole 8 feet of it)

[JPmia]

the Andrew evacuation was handled in just a few hours, though

as for what I would do, very likely just another hurricane on the causeway at the office. Key Biscayne would take the brunt of the surge (the whole 8 feet of it)

The difference between the Andrew evacuation and one these days is that those people and many more will want to leave South Florida for Central/North Florida and Georgia. More people now want to leave than they did in the past. And as you know, these people could be caught on the highway when conditions begin to deteriate. That is the fear of many EM Officials now. I believe FIU published surveys on this issue within the last 5 or 7 years. That sure would be a wild ride at the RSMAS campus although the place is built like a bunker.