Tropical Depression Carlotta (04E) in EPAC

[cheezyWXguy]

OK . . . I know what the NRL page is, but where did you go on that site to find what you said?

I looked at the projected path

[beachbum_al]

Isn't it unusual to have two hurricanes back to back like that? I always thought that when you have one storm that the energy from that storm keeps everything else from developing. Of course my thinking was wrong obviously because we have these two.

[Cyclenall]

Is anyone else watching this thing? Carlotta is weird because she starts rapidly strengthening for 4 hours and then starts weakening for no reason. I'm surprised that I didn't wake up to a monster. Carlotta is a failure of a storm! She can still pull a CAT2 or 3 if she starts getting her act together. The NHC said on the 2nd last advisory that she was going to become a major hurricane! Now, it's all downward from here! I have never seen this happen.

Hurricane Carlotta looks fine and good but the problem is she isn't making any huge gains. A eye was supposed to poke out (pin-hole) but it never did. Everything was going for a fast strengthening until something came in the picture and shut down the "project". We could have broke a record if she became a major like her big brother Bud.

I just thought of something, she is doing the same thing as Bud still. Bud didn't really strengthen but he didn't weaken unlike Carlotta. Big let down and a wrong prediction I made.

New % chance for Hurricane Carlotta:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 40%
Category 4 Hurricane: 10%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1%

% chance that Hurricane Carlotta will strengthen:

Slowly: 50%
Steady: 68%
Quickly: 55%
Rapidly: 35%
Wilma type Rapidly: 0.01%

% chance that Hurricane Carlotta will weaken:

Slowly: 40%
Steady: 25%
Quickly: 5%
Rapidly: 1%

[Cyclenall]

Carlotta is starting to copy Bud. She is starting to undergo rapid strengthening again by the looks of it. Eye forming quickly. It's neat how she is doing almost the exact same thing as Bud when he was going wild.

I hope I have nailed it this time.

New % chance for Hurricane Carlotta:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 55%
Category 4 Hurricane: 13%
Category 5 Hurricane: 2%

Now that I look at Carlotta again, she is wrapping around again for another try at becoming much stronger. I remember the last time she did this and did nothing. Let's see if she can make it this time.

[AnnularCane]

Carlotta is starting to copy Bud. She is starting to undergo rapid strengthening again by the looks of it. Eye forming quickly. It's neat how she is doing almost the exact same thing as Bud when he was going wild.

I hope I have nailed it this time.

You probably made her mad when you called her a failure.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like we might have major hurricane Carlotta.

[WmE]

Yes, it's looking fine. I guess it's a strong Cat1 or weak cat2 hurricane now. This might become Buds bigger sister!

[Cyclenall]

You probably made her mad when you called her a failure.

Yeah, that happens. She was a failure for a period of time but I'm rooting for her to make a comeback, a major one.

Looks like we might have major hurricane Carlotta.

One thing I will say is if she copies Bud when he was becoming a hurricane and then keeps strengthening fast, then she could jump to a major in the next 24 hours. Bud stopped after a while.

[whereverwx]

I wonder what the current conditions are at Socorro Island...

[HurricaneHunter914]

I wonder how many people are on that island right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to becoming better organized at a fast pace. Nice outflow forming over the northern/northwestern side...With what appears to be a banding eye...

[Cyclenall]

The NRL has it at 75 Knots and 984 mb. I think it's higher then that.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The NHC don't even strengthen it any further.

[clfenwi]

WTPZ24 KNHC 132029
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.4N 113.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.6N 116.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
792
WTPZ44 KNHC 132029
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS MADE A COME BACK...JUST A LITTLE...AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AS THE SHEAR
EFFECT FROM BUD'S OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN
A BANDING TYPE EYE TRYING TO FORM AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS. ON THIS BASIN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND SHOWS A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.

CARLOTTA IS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND. IT WOULD HAVE BEEN
VERY USEFUL TO HAVE AN OBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC
WEATHER STATION THERE. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST
ABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKNESS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED
MORE TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL...AND NOT WITH THE GFS WHICH
DISSIPATES CARLOTTA QUICKLY AND FORMS A NEW CYCLONE TO THE EAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 17.8N 111.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 18.4N 113.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.6N 116.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 124.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Cyclenall]

It's out now, 75 Knots currently and they predict nothing but weakening afterwards. They don't even call rapid strengthening. Hmm....

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks like an eye is trying to form... it don't see why it can't strengthen further in the next 12 hrs...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think its strengthing right now...For one the eye is starting to form deep convection all the way around...And is becoming more organized. I see now reason for it not to strengthen.

0 75 knots
6 80 knots
12 85 knots
24 70 knots
36 50 knots

[HurricaneHunter914]

If Carlotta was in the Caribbean it would have more time to strengthen then now.

[cycloneye]

774
WTPZ44 KNHC 140233
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006

THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF TOPS COLDER THAN -70C REMAINING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF A VERY POORLY-DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 75 KT. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WHILE
CARLOTTA RETAINS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
117W ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HURRICANE...
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THIS MAY BE CREATING SOME SHEAR THAT HAS
STOPPED INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC WATERS...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N132W. HURRICANE
BUD IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA...WHILE A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE NEAR 22N117W. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3-4
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA TO A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24 HR AND KEEP IT GOING GENERALLY WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL DIRECTION OF
MOTION...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF ALL DEVELOP ONE OR MORE NEW
TROPICAL CYCLONES EAST OF CARLOTTA...WITH THE RESULT THAT THE GFS
LOSES THE STORM WITHIN 72 HR. WHILE THESE NEW STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY OCCUR...IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL NOT FORM IN TIME TO
AFFECT CARLOTTA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND CONU
CONSENSUS MODELS.

CARLOTTA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HR.
SINCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND
DOWN...BECOMING A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 5 DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD WEAKEN FASTER
THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE COOLER WATER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 18.1N 112.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.8N 119.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[AnnularCane]

I guess she's not doing as well as I thought she was earlier today.