Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Josephine96]

so we may have a GOM system getting ready to try to form? huh.. Cool.. Break up the quiet But lets see how strong it may get

[Stormcenter]

so we may have a GOM system getting ready to try to form? huh.. Cool.. Break up the quiet But lets see how strong it may get

Personally, I rather the quiet.

[Rainband]

I will stick with the quiet.

[zoeyann]

Thanks for the heads up guys. I am about to do my weekly shopping and I guess I should replace those batteries that wound up in the kids' toys, just in case.

Anyway I hope this is not going to pan out and just turns out to be something to talk about.

[Josephine96]

I hate the quiet Hurricane season is so boring when there's nothing to track..

[cajungal]

I notice now the projected path of "possible" tropical system is now more geared toward the NE GOM and not the Central GOM. I'm not -removed- this toward Florida but just noting what the models are showing. Anyway, we don't have anything now so it's a mute point.

Future tracks don't mean a thing right now when we don't have an actual system to track. It is not written in stone that something will actually develop and affect the gulf coast in that time frame. These things change everyday.

[Josephine96]

I would not wish anything towards us.. But we are way behind on rain still.. We could really use some rain. Lets just not get it all at once

[Stormcenter]

I notice now the projected path of "possible" tropical system is now more geared toward the NE GOM and not the Central GOM. I'm not -removed- this toward Florida but just noting what the models are showing. Anyway, we don't have anything now so it's a mute point.

Future tracks don't mean a thing right now when we don't have an actual system to track. It is not written in stone that something will actually develop and affect the gulf coast in that time frame. These things change everyday.

I totally agree, I was just stating what the models were showing.
I wasn't the one that started this thread about this GOM possible threat.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Possibly the worst analogy to hear for GOM residents and specifically Texas residents is something forming north of Panama....

Sure 57 knows the year as he was about four years old...

talk about monsters! seven years before my time, heard many of stories of that BIG one! and no one really mentions carla that much, I believe it had a 22 foot storm surge at the head of matagorda bay and 14 or 15 feet at the gulf shore.

[N2DaTropics]

ONE INTERESTING FEATURE ARISES LATER NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. (THIS
FEATURE APPARENTLY ORIGINATES FROM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA). BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF A LOW
AND BRING IT TO APALACHICOLA BY THURSDAY EVENING. (IT IS UNUSUAL
FOR BOTH OF THESE MODELS TO BE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT
WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT EVEN EXIST YET). WE DECIDED
TO "SMOOTH" OUT OUR WIND GRIDS AND JUST SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS OUR AREA LATER NEXT WEEK (AS OPPOSED TO SHOWING A
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 20-30 KT WINDS). IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THESE MODELS STICK WITH THIS FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.


I guess it's just wait and see if anything actually rears it's head and heads toward the Yucatan Pen...if something does indeed form then I would think that anyone from the Upper Tx coast to the Big Bend Area of the Fl Panhandle would need to be very watchful...

[Roxy]

I'm sorry if this has been answered, but won't the high on top of us keep us safe? I mean I want the hight to move cus it's too damn hot...but is it going to? I don't want it to move out if it will bring a storm.

Dang, we can't win can we?

[stormspotter]

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KMOB 180834
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST THIS MORNING IS THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF DEVELOPMENT OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY THAT
CROSSES THE YUCATAN THEN HEADS NORTHWARD. THE GEM IS FASTER WITH
THE SYSTEM BUT THE THREE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS
FEATURE MOVING TO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
AGREEING ON A THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW THIS BEARS WATCHING AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND THEN RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

[Lindaloo]

Is this one of those April fool threads? Because I am still waiting for the punchline.

[wxman57]

I'm sorry if this has been answered, but won't the high on top of us keep us safe? I mean I want the hight to move cus it's too damn hot...but is it going to? I don't want it to move out if it will bring a storm.

Dang, we can't win can we?

I believe you're correct. The high will likely be over NW Texas by the middle of next week with the trof axis across central to SE LA. Anything that develops should stay along or eat of the trof axis - well east of us.

[Stormcenter]

wxman57 if you had to put some percentages on the chances of this materializing what would they be?

[gatorcane]

yes my eyebrows are raised because wxman57 is posting. Lets hope this doomsday scenario does not unfold for those in hurricane-stricken NOLA and the Florida panhandle.

[sunny]

yes my eyebrows are raised because wxman57 is posting.

I just told Linda that very thing!! Definitely caught my attention...

[wxman57]

wxman57 if you had to put some percentages on the chances of this materializing what would they be?

Confidence is not high as all we have is some disorganized thunderstorms and model projections. But if I had to put a number on it (and I do), then I'd say 20%, possibly 30%. That leaves a 70-80% nothing happens. If thunderstorms get more organized today and the 12Z models continue to indicate development (particularly the EC), then I might bump that up to 40% or even 50%.

[Stormcenter]

wxman57 if you had to put some percentages on the chances of this materializing what would they be?

Confidence is not high as all we have is some disorganized thunderstorms and model projections. But if I had to put a number on it (and I do), then I'd say 20%, possibly 30%. That leaves a 70-80% nothing happens. If thunderstorms get more organized today and the 12Z models continue to indicate development (particularly the EC), then I might bump that up to 40% or even 50%.

Thanks and keep up the great work.

[beachbum_al]

Nothing is being said on the local news about this yet in the Mobile area. I did see the NWS statement for the future but that is about all. I guess it is a wait and see scenario.