TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[dwg71]

MAC look here http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

you can clearly see that there are popcorn thunderstorm blown right away on the west side beginning around 72W

[rnbaida]

when is the next recon?

[skysummit]

People are beginning to get terribly ansy around here. I keep trying to tell them that this track will shift....the models will shift. It's way to early to go bonkers. You know...that track shifted from west to east and it may continue doing that, who knows. Bottom line is it WILL shift.

[ALhurricane]

Although Ernie does have a "squashed" appearance on his western side, you can clearly see those thin, long, whispy clouds on the western side as well. If there was strong shear there, I would expect to see it affecting those clouds. Therefore, I DO NOT believe he is encountering any shear issues right now. Nor do I believe he is going to. If you'll notice, that dry air he's been encountering to his west for the past couple of days is disappearing. His improved circulation, inflow, and outflow seems to be really churning up the atomsphere around him and giving him a much moister environment to work with. This all points to intensification today, IMO.

Upper level low over NW Caribbean and a squashed appearance on the west side of the storm are definite indications of shear. This will continue to be the case until the ULL retrogrades far enough west. Ernesto is not going to have an easy day of it, but if he survives today, then there is definite trouble down the road.

If that is the case, can you explain to me why the shear does not seem to be affecting the feeder clouds to Ernie's west??? In the past, I've seen these clouds usually affected before the storm. But I'm not seeing anything to indicate those clouds are being sheared. So what gives? Perhaps high level shear and mid-level clouds??? Weak shear??? What explanation can you provide?

I just think it is a matter of satellite interpretation. To me, it is fairly obvious to see the shear on the western side of the storm. Cloud motions are moving from SW to NE and is giving the storm the 'squashed' appearance on satellite. Shear is occurring in the mid to upper levels. Easterly low level winds plus southwest upper level winds equal shear.

[cinlfla]

I do not even believe I am waking up and seeing this, this morning. I though for sure the shear would have got to Ernesto over night. When do the new model runs come out? I can't remember

[Mac]

MAC look here http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

you can clearly see that there are popcorn thunderstorm blown right away on the west side beginning around 72W

Thanks, DWG. I can see it. However, it's not affecting those feeder clouds to the west. So, here's my best, somewhat educated guess. Yesterday it was discussed that mid-level shear (the shear that was causing Ernie the most problems) would subside and upper-level shear (that is much easier for a storm to overcome) would persist in the short-term. This may be panning out, and it would make sense based upon the visuals I'm seeing. Those thunderstorms that are being affected are much higher than those feeder clouds. Therefore, they would be more likely to be affected by upper-level shear. Sound reasonable?

Regardless, whatever shear is out there is not hurting Ernie. He's bound and determined to be promoted to hurricane tonight.

[cpdaman]

MAC look here http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

you can clearly see that there are popcorn thunderstorm blown right away on the west side beginning around 72W

has anyone plotted the ULL over jamaica to see how fast this thing is moving

p.s very cool satelite animation dwg71

[skysummit]

I do not even believe I am waking up and seeing this, this morning. I though for sure the shear would have got to Ernesto over night. When do the new model runs come out? I can't remember

Yea....with all that shear down there, he continues to look impressive and slowly intensify. That's a LOT of energy! I'm getting awfully worried for those that will eventually feel the affects of him.

NHC is calling for a Cat 3, and they're likely being conservative.

[Mac]

I just think it is a matter of satellite interpretation. To me, it is fairly obvious to see the shear on the western side of the storm. Cloud motions are moving from SW to NE and is giving the storm the 'squashed' appearance on satellite. Shear is occurring in the mid to upper levels. Easterly low level winds plus southwest upper level winds equal shear.

Thanks for the reply. I won't waste the board's bandwidth by repeating what I just did to DWG...but please let me know if this seems like a reasonable explanation to you.

[rnbaida]

People....We will have a cat4-5 heading for LA Or MS. If it beats this shear and has little or no land interference we will have a huge storm... I may be Katrina like...Once it hits those high sst's it will blow up

[skysummit]

People....We will have a cat4-5 heading for LA Or MS. If it beats this shear and has little or no land interference we will have a huge storm... I may be Katrina like...Once it hits those high sst's it will blow up

STILL too early to say that! Everyone from TX to FL needs to be prepared. This track will shift, and these models will shift. Will that front slow down and let him continue more westward? Will he feel the affects of the weakness sooner and turn sooner? Who knows.

[bostonseminole]

I still don' t see how people can be saying if this survives.. I would be very surprised if this has any issues.. maybe hold steady but it will not go away.. unfortunately

[JBP]

WHXX04 KWBC 261135
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.4 69.7 285./13.0
6 14.8 70.7 289./10.2
12 15.6 71.8 307./14.1
18 16.2 72.9 297./12.1
24 17.2 73.9 315./13.9
30 18.0 75.0 309./13.0
36 19.0 76.0 314./14.0
42 19.9 77.2 306./14.2
48 20.4 78.5 291./12.9
54 21.0 79.6 299./11.9
60 21.7 80.8 299./12.9
66 22.3 81.9 300./12.2
72 22.9 83.1 294./12.4
78 23.3 84.4 289./12.5
84 23.8 85.4 296./10.2
90 24.2 86.2 296./ 8.8
96 24.7 86.8 314./ 7.3
102 25.4 87.3 323./ 8.3
108 26.3 87.5 345./ 9.0
114 27.1 87.5 1./ 8.2
120 28.0 87.4 7./ 8.3
126 29.0 87.0 22./10.9

6z GFDL.

geez. Now that would be right in our backyard.

[ALhurricane]

I still don' t see how people can be saying if this survives.. I would be very surprised if this has any issues.. maybe hold steady but it will not go away.. unfortunately

The reason it is said is because TUTTs are notorious for hanging around longer than models forecast. This in turn has messed up quite a few intensity forecasts in the past and in some cases has destroyed systems.

Until the TUTT is on its merry way and the shear abates, you have to leave that option on the table, IMO. Having said that, Ernesto has done one heck of a job so far. It will be interesting to watch visibile satallite images today to see if the LLC becomes exposed at all.

[Kennethb]

Regardless, the media is set up all week in NO for Katrina anniversary. They could not have a much better setup to play off of. There will be a frenzy, anxiety, as they righfully will highlight the potential storm.

The track will change often, better for some, worse for others. This weekend allows time to make sure you have hurrucane preparations ready.

[Mac]

People....We will have a cat4-5 heading for LA Or MS. If it beats this shear and has little or no land interference we will have a huge storm... I may be Katrina like...Once it hits those high sst's it will blow up

Katrina like...yes...but with an ominous difference. As I recall, Katrina had to contend with increasing shear as she approached the Gulf Coast...shear that may not be present to take the punch out of Ernie when he bears down on the Coast.

[Scorpion]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

Shows warmer water close to the coast.

[Mac]

I still don' t see how people can be saying if this survives.. I would be very surprised if this has any issues.. maybe hold steady but it will not go away.. unfortunately

The reason it is said is because TUTTs are notorious for hanging around longer than models forecast. This in turn has messed up quite a few intensity forecasts in the past and in some cases has destroyed systems.

Until the TUTT is on its merry way and the shear abates, you have to leave that option on the table, IMO. Having said that, Ernesto has done one heck of a job so far. It will be interesting to watch visibile satallite images today to see if the LLC becomes exposed at all.

I recognize it is definitely a possibility, but I don't think we'll see an exposed LLC today. It was amazing watching Ernie resposition his convection over the LLC last night. And it happened in just a couple of hours. On satellite, it looked like the cold cloud tops were just picked up from one spot and set down on top of the LLC to the NW side of the storm.

[TampaFl]

New model plots are disturbing. The eastward trend continues.

They will wobble back west today also. I'll be more attentive to the models once Ernie gets to the Caymans. I hope the Gulfstream is going to be sent up today or tommorrow so the models have more data to digest. This is setting up to be another history maker....

Yes they are disturbing. Why do you think they will wobble back west today?. Just wondering. what your reasoning is.


Robert

[rnbaida]

Shear is starting to affect the west side of the storm.