TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[Bailey1777]

It's gonna skirt Western Cuba and bend back a little more Westward.(IMO)Then ride the periph.

[wxman57]

wxman57

Quote

"Mid Louisiana coast to eastern FL panhandle residents better make preparations ASAP before the public awake and see the NHC track crossing the coast and the panic starts."


They may do that over in LA, but we in the Panhandle have seen so much of this that there won't be any panic. I've yet to have a neighbor even question me over this yet.

Yeah, people there are burned out after Ivan and Dennis. Things generally change when that black line intersects the coast, though, and the "H" word is mentioned.

[miamicanes177]

Cuba is poised to rip this to shreds...thank goodness! 1-2 days of cuba should do the trick!

[Scorpion]

Cuba is poised to rip this to shreds...thank goodness! 1-2 days of cuba should do the trick!

And you know this how? The NHC track weakens it 10 kts....

[marcane_1973]

There is a lot of things that can still weaken this storm including Cuba. I see this storm only getting to a low end Cat 2 or maybe even a 1. I think this storm will be all hype.

[LSU2001]

Cuba is poised to rip this to shreds...thank goodness! 1-2 days of cuba should do the trick!

I don't see cuba tearing this up much. Flat land mostly in my opinion

[JtSmarts]

Cuba is poised to rip this to shreds...thank goodness! 1-2 days of cuba should do the trick!

It really depends on how much time it spends over Cuba and/or what part of Cuba it crosses. As the NHC mentioned in their discussion: Left Part Of Cuba= Little weakening, Right Part= A bit more weakening.

[PTrackerLA]

We're just gonna have to wait and see, as agonizing as it is. The latest discussion shows just how unsure the NHC is about Ernesto's eventual US landfall. Unfortunately it looks like evacuations may begin late Monday or Tuesday near and south of New Orleans especially with the tens of thousands of residents living in FEMA trailers.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Yea I think Ernesto is fixin to visit Hati

Don't let the convection fool you. It is moving WNW at this time.

I go by the forecast points and since 5:00 it has moved almost NW

[wxman57]

Cant wait until the line gets off of Pensacola

East would be better, into a less-populated area of Florida. Hope you don't have to change your name to "Ernestohater".

[jenmrk]

No we are all too busy sitting at our computers too talk to our neighbors, but in all seriousness I did see quite a few gas cans being filled up today and one gas station went up .10 cents in just 5 hours here in Pensacola today so I think the panic is trickeling in at a small pace.[/img]

[Opal storm]

I'm sure the chaos will begin here on Monday or Tuesday unless the track dramatically shifts away from us before then.Wal-Mart already has huge piles of flashlights and batteries at the front entrance of the store.

[miamicanes177]

I'm in alabama and that center is headed straight for me so I am cheerleading for cuba to destroy this thing. Katrina and Ivan were enough.

[Ivanhater]

Cant wait until the line gets off of Pensacola

East would be better, into a less-populated area of Florida. Hope you don't have to change your name to "Ernestohater".

haaa, I hope I dont either....I will be glued to your forecasts on here and hope the threat passes to my east....give me some good news wxman!!

[cinlfla]

Here's what I'm looking at , if you look at the the western blob right below it where you start seeing blue look and see where the NHC point is,
to my untrained eyes this thing is gaining latitude again.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks to me that Ernesto is stair stepping along the ridge to its north. At some point though it has to make more of a west course. That said if Ernesto spends a full day say running east towest over Cuba it will have an effect, especially eastern half of Cuba. Still these storms are like rubber bands passing over these small islands. The LL gets disrupted but the mid-level carries on an once it gets back over those warm waters and favorable UL winds the rubberband tightens back up and usually quite dramatically.

[Javlin]

IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...

The FSU says alot to me and the lack of movement by these models.I hope not,do not know if the physice can go another round even at a decent brush.The storm looks good tonight;how do you see a center at night,when they get an"Eye".

[Tampa_God]

Cant wait until the line gets off of Pensacola

East would be better, into a less-populated area of Florida. Hope you don't have to change your name to "Ernestohater".

haaa, I hope I dont either....I will be glued to your forecasts on here and hope the threat passes to my east....give me some good news wxman!!

Towards Me?

[ConvergenceZone]

Cuba is poised to rip this to shreds...thank goodness! 1-2 days of cuba should do the trick!

well, remember that's only IF it goes over CUBA, and right now it suppose to stay left of Cuba. If it's a hurricane when it enters Cuba, it won't rip it to shreds, but it will rip it to a tropical storm or at worst a tropical depression, at which point, it can gain strength EXTREMELY RAPIDLY once it hits the gulf again. We've seen that happen before.

[jenmrk]

I'm sure the chaos will begin heNDUCESre on Monday or Tuesday unless the track dramatically shifts away from us before then.Wal-Mart already has huge piles of flashlights and batteries at the front entrance of the store.


AS A FORMER WALMART ASSOCIATE I CAN TELL YOU THAT THEY WILL ALSO TURN UP THE TV'S MOUNTED ON THE CEILINGS EVERYTIME THE WEATHER COMES ON, THE TV'S NON REALLY NOTICES ANYOTHER TIME, IT INDUCES PANIC AND $$$ GETS SPENT VERY FAST.