Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[Derek Ortt]

for thosew atning a hurricane strike on the USA, may have a better chance from the CPAC disturbance, though even those chances are remote

[abajan]

Barbados Observations

There haved been west to NW winds in Barbados this afternoon.

abajan's observations from his home in the southwest of Barbados

No rain right now but the clouds to the north, east and south look angry. For the last hour or so there's been a lot of distant thunder and now that it's dark, fairly frequent flashes of lightning can be seen in the north, east north-east and south.

The wind is calm.

[bvigal]

Hmm, don't know the odds of a mainland US strike, probably very small. But, October 27 is of special significance to me... and it was, unfortunately, a lesson in how models, climatology, and just plain old what's believable can ALL be wrong when it comes to tropical cyclones. I'll never say never about anything again, and with Lenny the following year at Thanksgiving, I think I will just expect the unexpected, especially during 'borders' of the season.

Anybody recognize the following track?

If not, here's a big hint.


Of course, that doesn't look like anything noteworthy, but that storm didn't do anything that was expected. Take a look at warning #17


10/27/98 - men of "the phantom" we haven't forgotten you, RIP

[HUC]

Somewhat NO of abajan,in the souest side of Guadeloupe(or Gwada),cloudy,cb sparsed,winds now from the SEst,light...This situation remember me TS Helena in the end of october 1963 that born at the same location,the same date and causing a lot of desperation in the leeward;certainly not the same situation,but,if this Low slow its wesward track,who know...Anyone got the track of Helena 1963??

[cycloneye]

Somewhat NO of abajan,in the souest side of Guadeloupe(or Gwada),cloudy,cb sparsed,winds now from the SEst,light...This situation remember me TS Helena in the end of october 1963 that born at the same location,the same date and causing a lot of desperation in the leeward;certainly not the same situation,but,if this Low slow its wesward track,who know...Anyone got the track of Helena 1963??

[HUC]

Thank's Luis...WAIT AND SEE AS ALWAYS!

[Opal storm]

It's a very sloppy disturbance but convection is still going.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

Joyce is that you?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280202
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE
MAIN WINDWARD ISLANDS CHAIN. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

[AussieMark]

Hmm, don't know the odds of a mainland US strike, probably very small. But, October 27 is of special significance to me... and it was, unfortunately, a lesson in how models, climatology, and just plain old what's believable can ALL be wrong when it comes to tropical cyclones. I'll never say never about anything again, and with Lenny the following year at Thanksgiving, I think I will just expect the unexpected, especially during 'borders' of the season.

Anybody recognize the following track?

If not, here's a big hint.


Of course, that doesn't look like anything noteworthy, but that storm didn't do anything that was expected. Take a look at warning #17


10/27/98 - men of "the phantom" we haven't forgotten you, RIP

The Mitch track is very distinct

[Chacor]

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[jusforsean]

Its nice to see people on here wether its something or not:)

[Chacor]

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[x-y-no]

Well, the CMC is picking up on this ...

Takes the wave across Haiti/Eastern Cuba/Bahamas and then develops it to what may be a depression or a TS as it moves ENE out to sea.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006102800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

None of the other globals do anything with it ... The GFS holds a stronger low to mid level Atlantic ridge in place which would be inconsistant with the wave turning north quite so soon. I'm having a bit of a hard time buying the GFS riding picture, though, given the nice strong front right overhead right now and how far that extends down to the western Carib. Seems to me the CMC scenario is pretty plausible if anything is going to develop at all.

[Epsilon_Fan]

this seems interesting enough to come out of the woodwork

but I'd say this becoming anything more than a depression is slim

[Steve H.]

It entering the central Caribbean now and shear is fairly low so let's see what happens

[Opal storm]

Well it's been 24hrs and it's still alive and now in the Caribbean,but imo it's moving too fast to get organized.

[Sanibel]

Now we see if 2006 is pulling another one on us or this really is curling up with a surface reflection.

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like things are setting up for a Western Caribbean storm here. A front diving down is now slowly stalling in the NW Caribbean. The wave is staying weak and is on a due W course heading towards the W. Caribbean. The shear is relaxing so ULL winds are becoming very favorable. Once this wave slows down some, in about 2-3 days look for some fireworks in the Western Caribbean as the wave interacts with the dissipating front. Lots of energy, lots of warm water since no storms have been in the W. Caribbean since Alberto, weak ULL winds. Bam. Another short-wave trough will be swinging through the SE US mid to late next week which would pull this system Northward once in the W. Caribbean.

This may just be the October surprise starting to unfold as we speak.

[dixiebreeze]

For sure, the NHC is keeping an eye on 93L. Of course, there's not much else to keep an eye on these days

It has been pretty persistent.

[Sanibel]

If I say 2006 will prove true and make it another all bark and no bite disturbance it will develop. If I say it will develop it will poof tomorrow.


Still, the wise gambler learns the lesson of 2006 and leans on poof.