November 15: Tornado Outbreak - Southeast US - 9 killed

[Janie2006]

Things are really starting to "pop" around here (Mobile, Al). We've one line of thunderstorms approaching rapidly, and this line has a history of producing doppler-indicated tornados over southern Ms this morning (at least 4 of them). Meanwhile, it appears the main squall line is getting its act together over TX/LA.

[Janie2006]

Quick update:

No "on-the-ground" official confirmation as of yet, but some reports of damage are coming in from Washington county (about 60 miles north of Mobile). In any case, a dangerous wx scenario this morning.

[Bunkertor]

Any livestreams available ?

[Janie2006]

Not that I am immediately aware of. My sources are the local sheriff's departments.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I was sleeping. Looks like the reports did not come in overnight.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the current number of tornado reports is 11, treating the "possible tornado" in the wind section as such.

[CrazyC83]

Report from Sumrall, MS (near Hattiesburg): 6 injured, major structural damage. Likely F2-low F3.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 AM TORNADO SUMRALL 31.42N 89.55W
11/15/2006 LAMAR MS EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 6 INJ *** SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE NEAR
SUMRALL...PARTICULARLY IN THE ROCKY TOP COMMUNITY.
SEVERAL HOMES REPORTED DESTROYED...A MOBILE HOME BLOWN
INTO A POND.

[CrazyC83]

Here is where we stand at this morning:

PDS Tornado Watch 853 (Southern and Central Mississippi, Greater New Orleans)

Tornado Watch 854 (Southern Alabama, Florida Panhandle) - should be PDS IMO

Tornado Watch 855 (Northern Mississippi, West Tennessee)

Tornado Watch 856 (South-Central Louisiana)

Tornado Watch 857 (Northern Alabama)

[CrazyC83]

Tornadoes up to 15 (including the possible tornado wind reports) and now 9 injuries.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MS...WRN AL AND SE LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 854...

VALID 151530Z - 151630Z

THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MS AND AL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES AND THE
EXPIRATION TIMES ON WW 853 AND WW 854...THE TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE
REPLACED SHORTLY WITH TORNADO WATCH 858.

..BROYLES.. 11/15/2006


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

30378742 29468855 29729001 30539045 31589027 32518994
33228926 33498860 33298776 32358706

[CrazyC83]

Live streaming - WSFA-TV Montgomery - http://www.wsfa.com/

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
MUCH OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 145 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CENTREVILLE ALABAMA TO 100 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 853...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 854. WATCH NUMBER 853 854
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 955 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 857...

DISCUSSION...AS VERY STRONG JET ROTATES ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH MDTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINES OF STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
MUCH OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 145 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CENTREVILLE ALABAMA TO 100 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 853...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 854. WATCH NUMBER 853 854
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 955 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 857...

DISCUSSION...AS VERY STRONG JET ROTATES ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH MDTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINES OF STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 151551
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

TORNADO WATCH 858 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-017-021-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-
047-051-053-061-063-065-067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-105-
107-109-113-119-123-125-129-131-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0858.061115T1555Z-061116T0300Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER
CHAMBERS CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA GREENE HALE
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY PICKENS PIKE
RUSSELL SUMTER TALLAPOOSA
TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX


FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0858.061115T1555Z-061116T0300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON
WASHINGTON


LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0858.061115T1555Z-061116T0300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
TERREBONNE


MSC023-031-035-039-041-045-047-059-061-067-069-073-075-103-109-
111-131-153-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0858.061115T1555Z-061116T0300Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON JASPER
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE NOXUBEE PEARL RIVER
PERRY STONE WAYNE


GMZ550-555-630-650-655-750-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0858.061115T1555Z-061116T0300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM

MOBILE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...MOB...LIX...JAN...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW8
WW 858 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 151555Z - 160300Z
AXIS..145 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NNE 0A8/CENTREVILLE AL/ - 100ESE BVE/BOOTHVILLE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 125NM E/W /32SSW VUZ - 119ESE LEV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

REPLACES WW 853..LA MS CW
REPLACES WW 854..AL FL CW

LAT...LON 33138461 28758548 28759026 33138962

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.


Watch 858 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

WSFA: Major damage in Pintlala.

Likely a tornado. It hit a school off US-31 (windows blown out, trees down in a straight line), but everyone appears OK. Road to the school is blocked.

[Lindaloo]

No real bad weather in Pascagoula yet. The sun came out for about an hour. lol.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 151628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AL...FL
PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN GA AND SC COASTAL
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
INTO SERN STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL AR AND
SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO NWRN MS THIS EVENING...AS 100 KT MID LEVEL
JET MAX MOVES FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE NWRN GULF. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE SERN STATES.
OCCLUDED 992 MB SFC LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AR SHOULD TRACK AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
SERN ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK THU.

...CNTRL GULF CST INTO TN/GA/FL/CAROLINAS...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF AL...SWRN GA AND THE
FL PANHANDLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR 70F.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 1KM SHEAR NEAR 40
KT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WILL BE EQUALLY STRONG NORTH OF THIS AREA
...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LESSEN THE
TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHEAR AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND EVEN TORNADOES.

ANOTHER ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SERN GA AND SC COASTAL AREAS AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING JET MAX AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF
STREAM. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN THIS AREA.

FARTHER NW...AN AREA OF LOW-TOPPED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN ERN AR. IF SOME CLEARING/HEATING
CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
STRONG VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

BROAD ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH SEVERE POTENTIAL...DESPITE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS.

..IMY/CROSBIE.. 11/15/2006

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1643Z (11:43AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

No real bad weather in Pascagoula yet. The sun came out for about an hour. lol.

I heard there were a couple possible tornadoes around there last night...

[CrazyC83]

Roof caved in at the Funzone in east Montgomery with children inside. No other information.

Update: Unofficial report says everyone is OK.

[CrazyC83]

"Worst devastation ever seen in our lifetimes" - WSFA

[senorpepr]

Tornadoes up to 15 (including the possible tornado wind reports) and now 9 injuries.

Remember, that's not the number of tornadoes, but rather the number of reports. If five people report the same tornado in different cities, does that make it five separate tornadoes? No.

[CrazyC83]

Tornadoes up to 15 (including the possible tornado wind reports) and now 9 injuries.

Remember, that's not the number of tornadoes, but rather the number of reports. If five people report the same tornado in different cities, does that make it five separate tornadoes? No.

That is true and what I meant. On the other hand, some go unreported at first or are later declared after initially being declared straight-line winds. That will especially be true with this being an overnight event; updates are every 3 hours.