GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[JonathanBelles]

Water temp soared here this week to 79*F from 72*F last week.

[Scorpion]

The past week has definitely had a more summer feel to it than previously. It's just downright muggy in the mornings now.

[JonathanBelles]

It was muggy last night, sticky today. That front didnt bring cooler weather but summer in its wake.

[JonathanBelles]

according to the news the water tamps hit 80*F today,but none of the maps show 80 yet.

[Cyclenall]

The shear anomalies may be low, but the shear is still there. They don't really say anything about what shear will be like during the actual season (which is a month away). In fact, the GFS forecast shows an increase in shear throughout most of the basin and a return to a zonal flow pattern for at least the next 168 hours, which should put a nail in the coffin of preseason activity in April and early May.

How accurate are these GFS forecasts? I haven't heard much on them probably because they aren't the most accurate.

Last year was like watching paint dry. It would be nice to see at least some action this year, but there's going to be complaining soon, so we really have to get back on topic.

Don't remind me . Last year was so tame that I had to focus on the Epac to get any new experience with tropical cyclones.

[drezee]

Warm anolmalies are increasing in the areas near the islands. Europe is Baking!!

[cycloneye]

According to the latest data of potential maximun winds and potential minimun pressure,many parts of the Atlantic basin can support major hurricane winds,and the pressures are relativly low especially in the Caribbean Sea and in the MDR area.

[Coredesat]

Looks like the GFS had things right, there is indeed a zonal flow pattern over most of the Atlantic:

[web]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v317/teamragnarok/850200ushear0.gif[/web]

EDIT: I just noticed that "component" is spelled wrong on these graphics.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

According to the latest data of potential maximun winds and potential minimun pressure,many parts of the Atlantic basin can support major hurricane winds,and the pressures are relativly low especially in the Caribbean Sea and in the MDR area.

If those SSTS, Heat Content, and Lower Pressures continue the Central Atlantic and
Caribbean could see a very severe hurricane season.

[flightwxman]

Is it just me, or is that convective area moving off the african coast headed straight for that area?

[MississippiHurricane]

Since were on the topic of water temps, here is a buoy data link for water temps:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/

[Nimbus]

The caribbean is about a degree warmer than usual for this time of year. What does that equate to in time period, are we about a week ahead of schedule in terms of SST?

There is over 40 knots of shear over most of the area which is probably typical for this time of year. Nobody is expecting amother 2005 are they?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.
It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound
meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including
storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

2007 could be AS BAD AS 2005 in terms of storm severity.

I am going to go out on a limb- looking at those ssts, if shear
decreases, and moist pattern over Africa continues- Another 2005
in terms of storm severities- Not Damage- Is Possible...I think we
could see another 2005- IN TERMS OF INTENSITY BUT HOPEFULLY
NOT DEVASTATION.

I feel VERY STRONGLY this way...VERY STRONGLY. I mean look at those ssts,
and the moist pattern...I expect a VERY SEVERE HURRICANE SEASON FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CARRIBEAN
ISLANDS TO THE CARIBBEAN.

[canegrl04]

By July the shear will probably be cut down to 15-20 kts. Weather in Texas is heating up.Temps will be near 90 by Saturday.Very muggy.

[drezee]

SST in the florida keys hitting 30C over past 3 days...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SMKF1

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

SST in the florida keys hitting 30C over past 3 days...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SMKF1

Sea Surface Temperatures have already briefly climbed above 86 degrees.

This strengthens my meteorological expectations for a very severe
hurricane season, as elaborated upon in my prediction a couple
posts earlier in this thread. I can't stress this enough: Everyone needs to
be ready.

[JonathanBelles]

86*F ?? wow. I'm glad it went back down.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

It's really heating up out there. Almost half of the GOM is covered in high 70s.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Anyone notice the very large area of convection over the
central Atlantic and Central Caribbean?
Probably a trough
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[Damar91]

Yes, I had noticed that as well...