Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[deltadog03]

??? Ok, just curious what did that have to do with the storm? I think it has a shot!

[Scorpion]

Remember, the models are sovling large systems of PDEs NUMERICALLY

The solutions are NOT exact solutions, because there are NO exact solutions of those systems (at least not yet to the best of my knowlededge).

When solving numerically, there are truncation errors, and these errors grow with time. Thus, several days out, of course any solution will have a large error most of the time.

This does not even address the fact that the mesoscale processes are parameterized. The models CANNOT depict these processes.

This is some of the reason why there are large errors with long range forecasts

But there are several models depicting development in the area, the Euro being the most aggessive of course. So the conditions are definitely there.

[MiamiensisWx]

??? Ok, just curious what did that have to do with the storm? I think it has a shot!

I want to apologize. I didn't know that the thread focused on western Caribbean development down the road. The title suggested that the topic was dealing with the current system (not the development depicted at 200 hours in the models). I apologize for my mistake.

[Stratusxpeye]

??? Ok, just curious what did that have to do with the storm? I think it has a shot!

I want to apologize. I didn't know that the thread focused on western Caribbean development down the road. The title suggested that the topic was dealing with the current system (not the development depicted at 200 hours in the models). I apologize for my mistake.

(Bolded) Let's be nice Models are hinting at something possibly developing. That is the idea of this thread. We'll have to see if it pans out. The End result will most likely not be what the models say now but there may be development.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thank you derek for explanantions

[deltadog03]

I was talking about what derek was saying...not you

[cycloneye]

The original cause for this thread made by drezee on May 11 was to show the NAM model scenarios at that time.But now things haved changed as global models are showing distint scenarios at a longer range timeframe being the euro the most agressive so far.GFS has distint solutions.In other words,let's wait for a more global model consensus as the next runs come out in the comming days,to see if really something will form in the Western Caribbean or not.And the most important thing is to see how the enviroment will be by the time those models show something forming in the Western Caribbean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The Caribbean waters are the hottest they have been in years...
yes hotter than even in 2005 or 2006 in the Caribbean at this time
Just take a look at the Caribbean SSTs thread.

If shear lessens and moisture gathers, a potent pre-season
storm over the Caribbean would not surprise me at all.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Caribbean waters are the hottest they have been in years...
yes hotter than even in 2005 or 2006 in the Caribbean at this time
Just take a look at the Caribbean SSTs thread.

If shear lessens and moisture gathers, a potent pre-season
storm over the Caribbean would not surprise me at all.

The hot waters stand out as a major risk to me for later on this season. If the waters are warm and if there is low shear in that region during the late July through October period, then we may face a situation where one storm after another is forming (some being quite strong). Could get crazy in a couple of months!

With this current threat though, I think shear will be enough to preclude any significant development; though I wouldn't rule out a weak feature trying to spin up given enough time.

[Opal storm]

The Caribbean waters are the hottest they have been in years...
yes hotter than even in 2005 or 2006 in the Caribbean at this time
Just take a look at the Caribbean SSTs thread.

If shear lessens and moisture gathers, a potent pre-season
storm over the Caribbean would not surprise me at all.

The hot waters stand out as a major risk to me for later on this season. If the waters are warm and if there is low shear in that region during the late July through October period, then we may face a situation where one storm after another is forming (some being quite strong). Could get crazy in a couple of months!

And we could have bombs like Dennis, Wilma and Katrina were.

[Derek Ortt]

that post has to do with the fact that you CANNOT trust a model to depict a mesoscale feature this far in advance.

We have not had consistency. Different models are developing different features.

As I said, numerical solutions have truncation errors that grow in time, and these truncation errors also contain convective parameterizations (i.e., the models unnaturally force convective activity due to poor resolution). Until we start seeing models developing the same feature, I would not put much stock into the TC solution

The post has everything to do with the Euro solution

Check back in a couple of days (before the week-end) and see what the situation is then. Until then, enjoy game 4 of the Western Conference Finals tomorrow night and see if Detroit can take a 3-1 lead over Anaheim

[deltadog03]

Ok, Thats what I figured you were talking about. And YES I hope the wings destroy the ducks

[flyingphish]

I read somewhere how this trof around the Bahamas could lift up to the N/NE and leave a weakness in the Western Carribean. Also, this late cold front coming through Fl. could leave some energy behind in that area, (south end breaks off) that could be steered toward Fl. early next week by another trof moving in from the central U.S. Seems like a possibility. I wonder if the models are seeing this. Things should start to get pretty interesting from here on out, at any rate.

[Meso]

I know a lot of you will be saying "it's the CMC" buuuut check this out http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

[cycloneye]

I know a lot of you will be saying "it's the CMC" buuuut check this out http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

12z CMC animation

Above is the animation of what Meso posted about the Canadian model scenario for the 12z run.It forms a low in the Caribbean and moves it thru Cuba and the Bahamas while it grows in intensity.Until I see something for real in the Caribbean I dont trust this scenario.

[Thunder44]

From the 2:05pm TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A WEAK LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 18N83W
1013 MB AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONARY AND DEVELOP LITTLE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ABOUT 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO SOUTH OF 11.5N WEST
OF 76W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 16N W OF 70W. BROAD AND DRY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWEST PART
NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W.

[Derek Ortt]

still too soon, but something to be monitored since the models are now hinting at the SAME FEATURE doing something, though of course with different solutions

Will be closely monitoring, though am continuing to enjoy the conference finals and not worried yet

[HURRICANELONNY]

YEP THUNDER. IF YOU LOOK CLOSE ON VIS. LOOP AROUND 18N 83W YOU CAN SEE A LITTLE CIRCULATION.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[Fusion13]

The CMC Model here is showing something pretty strong forming. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

[DESTRUCTION5]

still too soon, but something to be monitored since the models are now hinting at the SAME FEATURE doing something, though of course with different solutions

Will be closely monitoring, though am continuing to enjoy the conference finals and not worried yet

I think the important thing here Ortt is how are you a Suns fan and a Die hard Canes fan at the same time? LOL