Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[HURAKAN]

Any thoughts on the convection firing off Mexico into the Western Gulf? looks like some potent energy.

That's just diurnal convection. Should dissipate later on tonight.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Berwick, as I noted over on CHFC, the 12Z CMC and 00Z GFS seem to be hinting at some type of surface reflection in that general area middle of next week. The interruption in the windflow brought on by the ULL does provide the possibility for some rising air and/or convection. Both models keep whatever is down there weak and generally moving west south of the TX/MX border. That's not bad considering they don't have much to work with except an ULL backing SW to interrupt the current pattern. This may also be one of the early hammers on the seasonal glass that allows the weather down in the Caribbean and Gulf to flow in from the east. Could be something to watch.

There is some wave energy stuck near the islands with some of it having broken through (mostly innocuous). Some of the break-through energy could also provide a spark (haven't looked at the Tropical Weather Discussion to see if these are two distinct waves or whatever).

Good topic.

Steve

The 18Z GFS...just for conversational sake....but whoa. It loops a robust system out of the Carribean, over the YP, and eventually into the big bend area.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on that model that is a trough of low pressure, with a large area of rainfall. But cyclones can form out of those.

[NDG]

I just don't see anything happening out this mid to upper level low moving into the GOM and BOC in the time frame and place that Berwick is forecasting for something to develop, this feature will be well gone by then, the NW GOM will be in charge by a stacked ridge. If anything was to move in and develop it would be after the 16th and out of the Caribbean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just don't see anything happening out this mid to upper level low moving into the GOM and BOC in the time frame and place that Berwick is forecasting for something to develop, this feature will be well gone by then, the NW GOM will be in charge by a stacked ridge. If anything was to move in and develop it would be after the 16th and out of the Caribbean.

I agree that the Caribbean looks the best right now..but I think we may actually see something before the 16th. The wave in the eastern Caribbean should be to the western Caribbean around the 11th-13th, and I think something could easily try to form in that vicinity as early as the 13th/14th. It will be interesting to watch.

[NDG]

I just don't see anything happening out this mid to upper level low moving into the GOM and BOC in the time frame and place that Berwick is forecasting for something to develop, this feature will be well gone by then, the NW GOM will be in charge by a stacked ridge. If anything was to move in and develop it would be after the 16th and out of the Caribbean.

I agree that the Caribbean looks the best right now..but I think we may actually see something before the 16th. The wave in the eastern Caribbean should be to the western Caribbean around the 11th-13th, and I think something could easily try to form in that vicinity as early as the 13th/14th. It will be interesting to watch.

Yeah, I would give the western Caribbean a better place for the development than the NW GOM.

[jasons2k]

In about 5 days it looks like most of the western Gulf will have somewhat favorable conditions for development:



http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropmain.html

This got my attention

[Weatherfreak000]

That map needs to be taken with a grain of salt.


It's not entirely acute of all atmospheric conditions.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That map needs to be taken with a grain of salt.


It's not entirely acute of all atmospheric conditions.

I see no problem with looking at a map like this for "general" guidance. It looks at favorable RH, wind shear, location (lat), and sea surface temperature..so though is may not cover everything, it still does cover the basic essentials needed for a tropical cyclone to form. And based on this current map..it looks like the NW Caribbean and parts of the GOM could be prime for something to try and spin up (if there is anything there to work with) in about 5 days.

[Berwick Bay]

Posting a Loop.

Late Fri-Early Sat., and the Gulf of Mexico's moisture content is signifcantly increasing. This is happening from both sides, E and W. The unexpected ULL from Fl. is helping to pump moisture in from the East, and the circulation around that strong Mexican Upper High is bringing in the moisture from the West. I would only say that we should watch the "alley" where the two moisture fields will meet (West Central Gulf). Still believe that a prime area for development will occur along that meeting place in the West Central Gulf, with formation of a low pressure center at about 24 N and 92 W.

Here's the Gulf of Mexico WV Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[southerngreen]

i was looking at that as well - like someone stirring up a cauldron.

[NDG]

Posting a Loop.

Late Fri-Early Sat., and the Gulf of Mexico's moisture content is signifcantly increasing. This is happening from both sides, E and W. The unexpected ULL from Fl. is helping to pump moisture in from the East, and the circulation around that strong Mexican Upper High is bringing in the moisture from the West. I would only say that we should watch the "alley" where the two moisture fields will meet (West Central Gulf). Still believe that a prime area for development will occur along that meeting place in the West Central Gulf, with formation of a low pressure center at about 24 N and 92 W.

Here's the Gulf of Mexico WV Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

I see nothing but lots of sinking air in that area, except for the immediate Mexican coast. A stacked high will keep things dry in the NW GOM for most of the week.

[Berwick Bay]

Sorry for duplication. Practicing posting images.

I know what you mean NDG. But I think that moisture content and a small area of actual low pressure may be on the way in the southern gulf (just north of the Yucutan). I look for the ULL to penetrate and help in establishing this niche. Here's a sat photo of this morning's WV.

[HouTXmetro]

The ULL is booking it to the SSW, but I amazed at the lack of convection associated with it's Western flanks. The WV loop shows the ULL id poised to enter the Yucatan Channel.

[skysummit]

Just IMO, I see this forecast falling apart a bit more every few hours, but since you're being so consistent with it, I can't wait to see what'll happen. If it holds true, I'll be one of the first to shoot you kudos.

[Berwick Bay]

Just IMO, I see this forecast falling apart a bit more every few hours, but since you're being so consistent with it, I can't wait to see what'll happen. If it holds true, I'll be one of the first to shoot you kudos.

It may very well fall apart. And I did say earlier that "you're only as good as your last forecast". HOWEVER, IT MIGHT NOT. Couple of points.

a. My forecast is not strictly based on science. I "intuitively seek" an area and a time frame that corresponds with what I see as future upper level conditions. So whats the point?? Once I make the forecast based on the above, I wait. Sometimes I get impatient though. I look for the obvious indications (precipitation, low level pressures, shear, dry air, and the rest which seem to be validating my forecast. I develop my own theory as to what will happen to make the forecast come to pass. HOWEVER, IN THE PAST, MY FORECAST HAS COME TO PASS, FOR REASONS WHICH I DIDN'T EXPECT. IN OTHER WORDS THE GOAL WAS REACHED BUT BY DIFFERENT MEANS. NATURE WORKING IN MYSTERIOUS WAYS.

B. Still several days left in my forecast. My last forecast was for development in 7-10 days near the west tip of Cuba. Well at Day 7, things were looking pretty bleak. Not much there. But then the change occured, and not exactly for the reasons I posted (albeit pretty close). Anyway, Barry was upgraded to Tropical Storm on Day 11, one day past my time frame. (Upgraded June 1st).

c. Today is June 9th. We still have a full week until the end of my current time frame (June 16th). I'm going to be patient. I can't deny "sensing" Chantal. I believe she is very near.

[skysummit]

I understand your points BB, and respect how you make the decision to stick with your forecast. Like you said, a whole week left and everyone knows how much difference only 24 hours can make in certain circumstances. Possibly that area of convection in the far southern Caribbean will come into play with your forecast It is slowly drifting to the north and northwest.

[SouthFloridawx]

Just IMO, I see this forecast falling apart a bit more every few hours, but since you're being so consistent with it, I can't wait to see what'll happen. If it holds true, I'll be one of the first to shoot you kudos.

It may very well fall apart. And I did say earlier that "you're only as good as your last forecast". HOWEVER, IT MIGHT NOT. Couple of points.

a. My forecast is not strictly based on science. I "intuitively seek" an area and a time frame that corresponds with what I see as future upper level conditions. So whats the point?? Once I make the forecast based on the above, I wait. Sometimes I get impatient though. I look for the obvious indications (precipitation, low level pressures, shear, dry air, and the rest which seem to be validating my forecast. I develop my own theory as to what will happen to make the forecast come to pass. HOWEVER, IN THE PAST, MY FORECAST HAS COME TO PASS, FOR REASONS WHICH I DIDN'T EXPECT. IN OTHER WORDS THE GOAL WAS REACHED BUT BY DIFFERENT MEANS. NATURE WORKING IN MYSTERIOUS WAYS.

B. Still several days left in my forecast. My last forecast was for development in 7-10 days near the west tip of Cuba. Well at Day 7, things were looking pretty bleak. Not much there. But then the change occured, and not exactly for the reasons I posted (albeit pretty close). Anyway, Barry was upgraded to Tropical Storm on Day 11, one day past my time frame. (Upgraded June 1st).

c. Today is June 9th. We still have a full week until the end of my current time frame (June 16th). I'm going to be patient. I can't deny "sensing" Chantal. I believe she is very near.

I have a feeling it will come before your time is up.

[skysummit]

These items could quite be the trigger for BB's forecast.....

[Berwick Bay]

Skysummit my compute skills are sorely lacking. I wish that I knew how to post a drawing like you just did with diagrams and arrows. Would be so much easier than always having to say 24N 92W or about 150 miles NW of the NW tip of the Yucutan. Oh, I would still say it in order to put it into the written record, but not nearly so often.
Another thing, a valued poster PM'd me this morning asking how to post a sat photo directly onto this Message Body. I had trouble responding to him. So I want to let him know to go to the thread entitled "Tropical Cyclone Gonu: And the Onset of the Indian Monsoon Vortex" by NYPHIL. Look to Chacor's response where he shows you how to post the sat photo onto the Message Body Page.