Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Stormsfury]

The NHC is being stubborn. Come on now. Declare it already so I can leave my computer and go to the barbecue.

Have to disagree with you right now as the system is obviously experiencing some modest north-northeasterly shear in the middle levels, which has exposed the main LLC (as shown by wxman57 on his satellite graphic) ... I viewed floater loops and also caught onto several swirls embedded withing the system before I logged on here. Currently, the WV loop shows the area of moist air which the system is partially embedded in is beginning to dry some the last 3 hours and convection has tapered down some in response to the about two conditions I posted above...

The system can't be upgraded at this time ...

SF

[Cyclone1]

I have decent confidence it'll be TD-3 by 11:00PM. If not, I'll lose proabably all faith in the NHC.

Unless they have recon to confirm they will not upgrade unless convection has been persistent for 24-48 hours directly over the center and it is forecast to intensify the next 2-3 days.

Oh, I did not know that...

[skysummit]

Almost a naked swirl now.

[Cyclone1]

The NHC is being stubborn. Come on now. Declare it already so I can leave my computer and go to the barbecue.

Have to disagree with you right now as the system is obviously experiencing some modest north-northeasterly shear in the middle levels, which has exposed the main LLC (as shown by wxman57 on his satellite graphic) ... I viewed floater loops and also caught onto several swirls embedded withing the system before I logged on here. Currently, the WV loop shows the area of moist air which the system is partially embedded in is beginning to dry some the last 3 hours and convection has tapered down some in response to the about two conditions I posted above...

The system can't be upgraded at this time ...

SF

You're right. The reason I say that is because it's met all the requirements for a TCFA. So, yeah. But it is looking worse.

[miamicanes177]

Have to disagree with you right now as the system is obviously experiencing some modest north-northeasterly shear in the middle levels, which has exposed the main LLC
SF

Shear is not doing jack to this system. Please show me the shear you speak of. It isn't there. It is unbelievable how favorable the wind shear is across much of the Atlantic.

[jasons2k]

I've been looking at the WV loop and it looks like what little moisture field there is around this system is shrinking and being overtaken by dry air.

Next.

[Berwick Bay]

But Cyclone 1, the key to everything now is persistence. It has been a depression for about 12 hours or so. But now the struggles with the ITCZ and shear have caused it to become disorganized. But no matter, the key will be persistence. Look for it to stick around as a Wave-Depression for the next 36 hours or so. At that time look for reformmation of a viable center as the system does in fact begin to permanently pull away from the ITCZ. This should begin as it makes its final approach toward the Windward Islands.

[Stormsfury]

Have to disagree with you right now as the system is obviously experiencing some modest north-northeasterly shear in the middle levels, which has exposed the main LLC
SF

Shear is not doing jack to this system. Please show me the shear you speak of. It isn't there. It is unbelievable how favorable the wind shear is across much of the Atlantic.

It's not in the upper levels ... the flow in the upper levels is high east... take a real close look at visible imagery looped to spot what I see (it's relative shear) ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[miamicanes177]

It's not in the upper levels ... the flow in the upper levels is high east... take a real close look at visible imagery looped to spot what I see (it's relative shear) ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I didn't say you said upper levels. Look at a current analysis of the mid-level shear and show me where you see it.

[cheezyWXguy]

The storm actually used to be in about 15-20kts shear yesterday, and now its entering an area of 10kt shear...i expect a little improvement as the day goes on. Also its moving into an area of increased instability(if im reading the map right) so I think it still has a shot at some organization, although not much, and right now there is absolutely no way theyd call it a TD right now

shear map:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

Instability map:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrins.gif

[Buck]

There seems to be a bit of shear in the mid-levels but it looks to me like the center is just flat-out pulling away rather than having it's convection sheared off.

[cycloneye]

666
NOUS42 KNHC 041400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 04 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.



Nothing about tasking the system at least in todays update until Friday.So they dont seem too worried about it at this time.

[Chacor]

The TC marine graphic now (09Z) says possible formation within 24 hours (it previously had said 48 hours).

[wxman57]

Ok, I'm at work now. Here's a nice McIDAS image. Naked swirl with weak inflow. I don't think this would qualify as a TD now. Maybe it did before. But the NHC doesn't tend to upgrade a LLC unless they think it has the potential to develop and/or cause harm to the general public. No TD this morning, that's for sure.

[Derek Ortt]

This system is clearly sheared. I said this yesterday regarding calling this a TD, but the same applies to shear. Saying there is no shear is the same that Basso only "attempted to blood dope"


Time to spend my day looking at vortex Rossby Waves in Katrina and Rita. Nothing to see with this feature

[miamicanes177]

This system is clearly sheared. I said this yesterday regarding calling this a TD, but the same applies to shear. Saying there is no shear is the same that Basso only "attempted to blood dope"


Time to spend my day looking at vortex Rossby Waves in Katrina and Rita. Nothing to see with this feature

MID LEVEL SHEAR: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF

This is the truth and it can not be disputed. Enjoy looking and Katrina and Rita. I'm off the lake!

[cheezyWXguy]

This system is clearly sheared. I said this yesterday regarding calling this a TD, but the same applies to shear. Saying there is no shear is the same that Basso only "attempted to blood dope"


Time to spend my day looking at vortex Rossby Waves in Katrina and Rita. Nothing to see with this feature

MID LEVEL SHEAR: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

This is the truth and it can not be disputed. Enjoy looking and Katrina and Rita. I'm off the lake!

the links dont work

[windstorm99]

Overall i think there's a reason why storms this far out are quite rare for this time of the year.I honestly dont think shear is the problem here its loseing its battle againest the dry air in the vicinity.

Windshear is only 10kts in the area which is not a big deal at all and infact its forcasted to stay that way through friday.Once it makes to the islands if it ever does upperlevel winds are forcasted by the GFS to increase to about 30kts which will probaly be to much fo this now naked swirl.Adrian

[Stormsfury]

It's not in the upper levels ... the flow in the upper levels is high east... take a real close look at visible imagery looped to spot what I see (it's relative shear) ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I didn't say you said upper levels. Look at a current analysis of the mid-level shear and show me where you see it.

It's relative shear.... meaning you have two different net movements resulting in shearing forces ...

I'll put it this way .. IF you have a system embedded in 25kt Easterlies, BUT the system is also moving 25kts with it --- you have a net result or RELATIVE shear of 0 kts...

Again, take a real close look at that visible imagery to the Southwestern edge of the main LLC and look at the convection and the colder cloud tops along the edge of it, and note how it is being fanned southward away from the LLC. ideally it would be fanned northward on that side of the semicircle in an ideal enviroment.

What else could it be exposing the LLC to the NNE of the center? ...

Water Vapor Imagery Floater ... (when the loop loads ... click on HDW-high and check it) ... look at the wind barbs ... it's there...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

SF

[wjs3]

Sorry...it's sheared. Those CIMSS products are using cloud motion derived winds--and subtracting calculated wind speeds from various layers (i know you know this). Sometimes they aren't horribly accurate, if, for instance there are no clouds.

So turn to a visiblesatellite loop. It's obvious--even if its only modest shear--that the center is going one way and the convection is going another...that's how a center gets exposed, right? the ONLY way that can happen if there's a difference in wind speed and/or direction at the low levels (where the center is) than higher up (where the convection is). That's wind shear.

Let me say...this system has a lot going against it, as many others have posted. Shear IS part of the problem. Sorry. Maybe it's not huge, maybe it's one of several problems, but it's there, CIMSS analysis or no.

Best--


WJS3

PS--Derek--maybe I should watch the WWE instead of the TDF?