Vigorous Wave to Emerge Africa

[HURRICANELONNY]

The SAL doesn't look much different then Aug 31 2005. A little worse this year but were not even in the heart of the season yet. The way the SAL is right now it will push the waves south. But that will change as the days go by.

[Derek Ortt]

There was almost no SAL in 2005... there was dry air, but the dry air was from the Azores High

[HURRICANELONNY]

There's SAL every year. Here's one that was posted here from Aug 05.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /Fig66.JPG

[clfenwi]

As Derek's post hints, one must make a distinction between dry air and the Saharan Air Layer. The Saharan Air Layer is dry air, however, not all dry air is associated with the SAL. Dry air of any source/cause will show up as red on the SAL analysis, but one has to look at the 5 day animation to try to determine whether it's actually SAL related. Because of that, it's difficult to look at a single SAL analysis from the past (by itself) and say the SAL was strong at that time; the best you can do is say "there was a lot of dry air".

[littlevince]

Just for curiosity, here we have the desert storm I talk 2 days ago:

IR Loop 19z-06z



IR 6z

[Frank2]

Last evening, Dr. Lyons (TWC) was calling that same area highly unlikely for any development in the near future, due to a very dry wedge of air that has been running the length of the coastline, from Portugal south to Western Africa.

He also mentioned that any disturbances exiting the African coastline are not developing because of this feature...

[Hyperstorm]

There is a vigorous low pressure center that will exit Africa during the next 36-48 hours. Not only does it have model support, but it's coming off at a perfect latitude (near 10N). Whenever I see a system that has a good low pressure circulation over Africa at a low latitude during the heart of the season, I think it has potential. Conditions are really not the best in the E. Atlantic at this time because of the huge area of stable air, but it could develop slowly if it manages to stay near 10N until it gets its act together.

Due to model support this particular system probably has more potential than any previous system coming off Africa. Keep an eye on it...

[gatorcane]

Yes the models are all over this system and lets remember than several potent waves that exited prior this season the models were not optimistic with at all..

the real start of the season is very near.....

[cycloneye]

I think that a new thread for this new wave that the models are latching to has to be made,because the author of this thread made it in August 3rd based on another wave that emerged last weekend.It may confuse members that come and read all the pages and find that the posts are refering to a wave that came out of Africa a few days ago,not about the next wave to emerge.

[gatorcane]

Luis good thinking I agree with you.

Plus, I think it will be a long-lived thread if you know what I mean

[Frank2]

Here's a 5-day loop from CIMSS - that is a lot of dry air, folks:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

[cycloneye]

Anthonyl,I am locking your thread from August 3rd the date the wave that emerged at that time,to not confuse the members with another wave that will emerge in a couple of days.