Global Models for 90L

[ronjon]

If the 12Z EURO still has the northern track this afternoon IT'S on to something.

I think the difference right now between the GFS and the Euro is that the Euro pulls the storm northward due to the trough at 144 hrs and the GFS just passes it by to the south. There is also a difference in speed between the Euro and GFS with the GFS racing the storm much faster than the Euro.

The UKMET, CMC, & ECMWF all show a more northward path while at the moment the GFS is the southern outlier.

[GraysonDave]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

[Brent]

Very similar to 6z, Mexico again.

[Sanibel]

Even further south into Mexico than last night's. Again, with the average error, if I lived in Texas I'd be watching.

[Evil Jeremy]

With the average error, I would be watching from FL.

[ronjon]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_240.shtml

There's a weakness in the 500 mb pattern on the central Gulf Coast but apparently the storm is too far west or south to respond to it. These runs are entertaining but probably are not worth the electricity to run them after seven days.

[Sanibel]

In the last few years I think every single one of these projected paths at this distance has been wrong, or substantially wrong, to the point of unreliable.

[cycloneye]

Now lets wait for the EURO that in my view is the best global model.Another question in the 12z runs is if NOGAPS will wake up and show something or it will continue to be the outlier.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I have very little confidence in this 12Z run. I'd bet the House it doesn't make landfall in Mexico. 500 Trof digging down across the U.S. there's no way it stays west. I like EURO better right now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

This whole right across the Atlantic thru Carribbean thru Yuk into mexico seem a bit unlikely if you ask me..I mean has it ever happened in recorded history?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

[Sanibel]

If that track verifies Tampico will take an unhindered strong storm head-on.

[KatDaddy]

Dont even think Texas. We do not want it and that goes for the entire NGOM. We had enough in 2005.

[JTD]

Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

What time will we get the final word from the Euro this run?

Before 1:30 ET?

Also this storm reminds me of Emily and has since last night.

[stormchazer]

Dont even think Texas. We do not want it and that goes for the entire NGOM. We had enough in 2005.

Florida and the Eastern GOM are not interested either so less pray for the Euro with a sharper recurve. If it develops and as we get better data in the models, we will get a better picture. It is fun to look at each model spitting out. Better then watching World Series of Senior Citizen Poker on ESPN 8 "The Ocho"!

[Weatherfreak000]

Considering the forward speed I think the storm tracking through the Caribbean is indeed actually a possibility.

Although, if it were to do that there is enough evidence to assume there's no way it would miss U.S. landfall then. E. Texas all the way to the Big Bend of Florida would be under the gun could be Ivan-like.

Of course, i'm not suggesting this is the case. In the next day or so "TD #4" will be on the C. ATL Loop and we'll be able to see it progress in just about real time, finally.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I do have very little comfidence in this run, but there is an alarming trend here. The last FOUR runs have all shown a similar track..that has to say something, right?

BTW: The GFS is not nearly as inaccurate in the 4-5 day range, and it has consistantly been showing this storm hitting the Leewards in that timeframe. I think that means it is now a good bet that this storm will be in that general area in 4-5 days. A Caribbean storm now looks likely IMO. The question now is will it continue west in the caribbean or will it turn north at some point?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

What time will we get the final word from the Euro this run?

Before 1:30 ET?

Also this storm reminds me of Emily and has since last night.

EURO will be out 3:30 ET

[Brent]

My hunch says a stronger storm goes more to the north. Emily formed later and was rather weak til it got right to the islands, this *seems* to be developing a lot earlier and much faster.

Of course Allen and Gilbert both did a straight west track, but it's so rare and that ridge has to break down at some point.

The only thing I feel certain about is that this storm will be a very serious issue for the Lesser Antilles.

[sevenleft]

I do have very little comfidence in this run, but there is an alarming trend here. The last FOUR runs have all shown a similar track..that has to say something, right?

BTW: The GFS is not nearly as inaccurate in the 4-5 day range, and it has consistantly been showing this storm hitting the Leewards in that timeframe. I think that means it is now a good bet that this storm will be in that general area in 4-5 days. A Caribbean storm now looks likely IMO. The question now is will it continue west in the caribbean or will it turn north at some point?

Consistency is great, but it's just as likely that it is consistently wrong.