Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[windstorm99]

Floater added!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah I'll be watching it closely FCI........

what a surprise for some if this makes it to South Florida. I get the sense that many were thinking we may get off the hook this year...

You know me.
I'm still thinking that we will get off the hook.
I'm an eternal optimist.

At this point, I think it is safe to say that THERE WILL be a weakness in the ridge with the approaching cold front. Another thing safe to say is that next weekend's cold front WILL BE STRONG.

With these 2 factors in place, it is only a question when 92L will be picked up...unlike with Dean and Felix which were never forecast to feel the effects of a weakening ridge and approaching trough.

With this said, I think Floridians have enough evidence to be optimistic.
The Carolinas should be more concerned though.

While I agree about the cold front, I disagree that Florida should feel optimistic about it not affecting them. I think the cold front will get there too late....of course, this has to develop first, and by the way, is the latest TWO even mentioning possible development with this?
just asking as I haven't checked yet....

[jaxfladude]

Someone needs to do a double "Poofius" spell on those two invests in the Atlantic....

[chadtm80]

Floater added!

Yep and updated on s2k homepage to reflect the new images.. http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE LOW LEVEL
SWIRL THAT HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS WEAK AND
LOOKS TO BE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION IS FORMING ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE
WAVE AND A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM THERE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 55W-58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

MLC confirmed, LLC coming soon!!

Just hope that it won't be to your neighborhood!

[windstorm99]

Right now 92L is still under some shear from central Atlantic trough, but once it moves through there it has a shot towards organization.Adrian

[HURAKAN]

miamicanes177 may be stretching it a little far but it's just a forecast. Heck, JB sub-970 mb hurricane didn't materialize for the Carolinas and nothing has happened!!!

[KWT]

Not all that surprising Hurakan.
Convergancezone, I haven't seen the latest TWO however it is clearly developing quite nicely here and while the global models aren't latching onto it they didn't latch onto Felix for quite some time either. The earliest it should turn to the NW/NNW IMO is in about 72hrs time, till then should have a ridge to the north.
Early days however to be talking about cat-5's!!

[ALhurricane]

This forecast is not endorsed by storm2k and should not be used by anyone. Refer to the NHC for the only source of tropical information.

With favorable wind shear and minimal dry air already in place, I give this a 100% chance of becoming a hurricane within the next 5 days. In fact, I would not be surprised to see this become a major hurricane. The trend in 2007 has been west, west, west. Look for this trend to continue with this system and slam into the United States as the first hurricane since Wilma of 2005 to make landfall. This has the potential to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane approaching the USA.

Do you happen to work for a not so accurate private weather forecasting firm? Any cool graphics to go with that forecast?

[MiamiensisWx]

Here's a question:

Can 92L's forward motion affect its future possible path? I think the probability for each scenario depends on 92L's forward motion. The model guidance has been underestimating the strength of low-level ridges. I would think it could gain some forward speed, especially because of the 500 mbar pattern over the next ~48-72 hours. Some models may initialize 92L on a slower forward motion, which could indicate a bias in the short term solutions. This factor would affect the long term outcome. Do you believe it could reach ~70W earlier than indicated by some models?

Current TPC discussion notes forward motion near ~10 kts (15 mph).

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND
IT COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Look at the following loop. Do you believe a faster forward motion is plausible when it slips beneath the trough?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on..._ge_14km_visir2

Anyone can feel free to answer my question. Thanks!

[windstorm99]

When it moves away from the trof in the central atlantic look out.

[gatorcane]

On top of everthing else, 92L looks to be passing north of Hebert Box...so, if this was to affect Florida (unlikely IMO), it would be a central Florida threat...right now though, 92L's convection is on the decrease and who knows, maybe tomorrow our attention will shift to 91L (which could be sucking moisture from 92L).

Note that the corollary to the Hebert Box theory doesn't exist. Paul Hebert found that the majority of major hurricanes that have hit south Florida have passed through this region. However, just because a system misses the box to the north doesn't mean it's not likely to hit south Florida. In this case, there may be a very strong ridge north of the disturbance until it reaches the Bahamas. South Florida is NOT out of the woods by any means, nor is the Gulf.

Wxman I don't like when you say South Florida not out of the woods or the Gulf...

things getting interesting already as there is a stir starting to happen here in Palm Beach Country down through Miami-Dade and Monroe.

Royal and Coconut palms blowing in a nice ESE wind at 10-15mph today. Deep Atlantic moisture is flowing through the Southern half of Florida this afternoon....

[cycloneye]

Chad,floater is now over 92L.

[RL3AO]

The hunters better be prepared. This looks really good.

[windstorm99]

Yea luis i posted a few images back and chad noted it on the homepage.

[HURAKAN]

NICE PERSPECTIVE!

[KWT]

RL3AO, I suspect recon will fly into it in two days time, probably won't have quite enough notice to fly into it tomorrow (though I may be wrong, anyone know otherwise??) but I'm sure they will fly into it as its a threat down the road.

[ConvergenceZone]

This forecast is not endorsed by storm2k and should not be used by anyone. Refer to the NHC for the only source of tropical information.

With favorable wind shear and minimal dry air already in place, I give this a 100% chance of becoming a hurricane within the next 5 days. In fact, I would not be surprised to see this become a major hurricane. The trend in 2007 has been west, west, west. Look for this trend to continue with this system and slam into the United States as the first hurricane since Wilma of 2005 to make landfall. This has the potential to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane approaching the USA.

no offense, but how can you say this just based on an organized cluster of convection...
I agree, this has to be -removed-.....unbelievable...I highly doubt that what you are saying will evel remotely come to be.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not as impressed with this disturbance... we need more low levle convergence before this does anything.

I'm watching 91L more closely

[windstorm99]

I'm not as impressed with this disturbance... we need more low levle convergence before this does anything.

I'm watching 91L more closely

This is by far has the chance to be the biggest threat for the united states so far this hurricane season.I think this system is something to watch very closely.