Convection in the... Mediterranean?

[Coredesat]

It is oficially IMPOSSIBLE for a tropical cyclone to be named outside of one of these regions. I think the boundary gets fudged in the Indian Ocean around the equator when it's occasionally necessary, and RSMC Miami will typically claim the entire North Atlantic as its official territory, but Meteo-France actually has the official high seas control east of 25W or so . . . in other words, the coast of Africa is technically out of the TPC's AOR, which means that making the Med officially TPC territory would be a real stretch, and would probably be seen as stepping on the toes of the European agencies.

That's not right. NHC named Vince at 19W.

That's because the NHC has an agreement with Meteo-France to forecast systems east of 35W but west of the African coast, an area that isn't expressly in its AOR.

To Matt: This agreement is the only reason why the NHC can forecast to the African coast. If Meteo-France suddenly decided to renege on it for whatever reason (horribly unlikely), the NHC would lose the ability to forecast there, since its AOR officially ends at 35W. Tropical cyclones don't get recognized (not just not named) outside of these defined basins aside from that exception because the agencies are simply not responsible for those areas (RSMC Nadi would not recognize a system forming east of 120W). Thus, the NHC can't even officially recognize any system in the Mediterranean as a tropical cyclone.

[Category 5]

You really think I don't know this already? I understand this, but also it was not about naming this. It was about treating it as a cyclone, as it should be. Also I've got great respect for the nhc, and thank god that they forecast all the way to the african coast. No one comes close to the nhc forecast; forecasters,computer models,satellite,surface data on earth. You can debate that, but I doubt you can get over your pride of your own forecast center. I understand hundred percent you feel that no ones better then your area forecast center, as I feel no ones better then the nhc. But look at the data and knowledge at the nhc. I highly doubt there is better team of hurricane forecasters on earth then the nhc. I thank god for the nhc forecasting right up to africa. But still I'm not a robot, I would not be interesting in science if I were to go along with the nhc at all times.

I wish they could forecast for the med. But they can't. It is understandable, does not mean that the people that do can't go over it, and have studies. Science is all about that. Science there is no yes or no answers, but just theory's to be proved or disproved.

Yeah, like when you jump on them for not upgrading invests, depressions, and inflating the numbers?

[Normandy]

I just have one question:

Where in this post did Matt say that the NHC should name this (I have been reading through the posts and can't even find one post where Matt said this)? I ask because tons of you are jumping on him, and from my position it looks like you all are just doing it to, hell, I dunno look cool/smart or something....Why all the arguing over nothing?

And even if he did say it, just correct him and move on.
That being said, Med storms are always interesting....but my favorite lows in the Med are the Polar lows...those looks sweet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You really think I don't know this already? I understand this, but also it was not about naming this. It was about treating it as a cyclone, as it should be. Also I've got great respect for the nhc, and thank god that they forecast all the way to the african coast. No one comes close to the nhc forecast; forecasters,computer models,satellite,surface data on earth. You can debate that, but I doubt you can get over your pride of your own forecast center. I understand hundred percent you feel that no ones better then your area forecast center, as I feel no ones better then the nhc. But look at the data and knowledge at the nhc. I highly doubt there is better team of hurricane forecasters on earth then the nhc. I thank god for the nhc forecasting right up to africa. But still I'm not a robot, I would not be interesting in science if I were to go along with the nhc at all times.

I wish they could forecast for the med. But they can't. It is understandable, does not mean that the people that do can't go over it, and have studies. Science is all about that. Science there is no yes or no answers, but just theory's to be proved or disproved.

Yeah, like when you jump on them for not upgrading invests, depressions, and inflating the numbers?

Because I'm a human being that is interested with science. I like to make points and disagree, and like to see why some one thinks one way or the other. That is what is wrong with science these days; that is the fact that every one thinks everyone has to agree with another sciencist, that is not true, in fact this is a weakness with today's science. Look at global warming and the hate and heat that comes with it. I'm not a drone or a robot.

Normandy, your right, I did not say that. In fact no one can name this. That is a fact. That is a fact because not even Greece has WMO power for the area. But does not mean its not a tropical cyclone. I expect people of science to look into it. My whole point over the last few days has been all about point blank telling me or some one else that this is "not" anything but a blob of disorganized convection. With data showing it may not be the case. What makes me mad is the fact that this field seems to be closed to other then the pro to ask questions.

You are right that no one, but maybe France(Greece) can name this. Because it is with in there area. Your a million percent right. But it does not mean I won't be posting threads and threads this winter about distrabance in the south Atlantic.

I think your all smart and have a good point, and I normally read them all, if i have the time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is oficially IMPOSSIBLE for a tropical cyclone to be named outside of one of these regions. I think the boundary gets fudged in the Indian Ocean around the equator when it's occasionally necessary, and RSMC Miami will typically claim the entire North Atlantic as its official territory, but Meteo-France actually has the official high seas control east of 25W or so . . . in other words, the coast of Africa is technically out of the TPC's AOR, which means that making the Med officially TPC territory would be a real stretch, and would probably be seen as stepping on the toes of the European agencies.

That's not right. NHC named Vince at 19W.

That's because the NHC has an agreement with Meteo-France to forecast systems east of 35W but west of the African coast, an area that isn't expressly in its AOR.

To Matt: This agreement is the only reason why the NHC can forecast to the African coast. If Meteo-France suddenly decided to renege on it for whatever reason (horribly unlikely), the NHC would lose the ability to forecast there, since its AOR officially ends at 35W. Tropical cyclones don't get recognized (not just not named) outside of these defined basins aside from that exception because the agencies are simply not responsible for those areas (RSMC Nadi would not recognize a system forming east of 120W). Thus, the NHC can't even officially recognize any system in the Mediterranean as a tropical cyclone.

Your right Coredesat, nothing you said above is wrong. But lets just say, I hope it never changes from the nhc to france.

[Cryomaniac]

I think the up shot of this argument is that one of the agencies should recognize that tropical systems can and do form in the Med and they should be tracked, and maybe named.

[Chacor]

I hope it never changes from the nhc to france.

Why, exactly, given that they are as good an RSMC as the TPC are in their own right and have the experience?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No real discussions like the nhc puts out. Also most storms it appears in the southwestern Indian ocean gets upgraded, while looking some what more developed then there Atlantic counter parts. Flows the record off some. Can you put up a case that France is just as good as the nhc. I would be interested in that.

[Chacor]

No real discussions like the nhc puts out. Also most storms it appears in the southwestern Indian ocean gets upgraded, while looking some what more developed then there Atlantic counter parts. Flows the record off some. Can you put up a case that France is just as good as the nhc. I would be interested in that.

There are different upgrading criteria in the SW Indian Ocean (similar to the Australian and SW Pacific basins). If they were to take over the Atlantic east of 35W under the RA IV Hurricane Committee they would be following Atlantic standards for upgrading.

Also, have a look at some of their advisories for Tropical Disturbance 01R this season. Let me quote:

THE MAIN CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
WICH HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN HIGH LEVEL (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW),
BUT NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN LOW LEVEL : GOOD LOW LEVEL
TRADEWINDS INFLOWS, BUT NO EQUATORWARDS WIND INFLOW, AND ENERGETIC
CONDITIONS LIMITATED
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER SEAS WITH SST OF 26.5°c, WICH IS JUST
THE MINIMAL THRESHOLD FOR DEVELOPMENT OR PERSISTENCE OF A TROPICAL LOW.

THE LOW HAS CURVED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS,
THEN WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT SHOULD COME THE CLOSEST TO AGALEGA (WHERE PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH
DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LOW)DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.

[Category 5]

No real discussions like the nhc puts out. Also most storms it appears in the southwestern Indian ocean gets upgraded, while looking some what more developed then there Atlantic counter parts. Flows the record off some. Can you put up a case that France is just as good as the nhc. I would be interested in that.

Does the word recon mean anything to you?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No real discussions like the nhc puts out. Also most storms it appears in the southwestern Indian ocean gets upgraded, while looking some what more developed then there Atlantic counter parts. Flows the record off some. Can you put up a case that France is just as good as the nhc. I would be interested in that.

There are different upgrading criteria in the SW Indian Ocean (similar to the Australian and SW Pacific basins). If they were to take over the Atlantic east of 35W under the RA IV Hurricane Committee they would be following Atlantic standards for upgrading.

Also, have a look at some of their advisories for Tropical Disturbance 01R this season. Let me quote:

THE MAIN CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
WICH HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN HIGH LEVEL (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW),
BUT NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN LOW LEVEL : GOOD LOW LEVEL
TRADEWINDS INFLOWS, BUT NO EQUATORWARDS WIND INFLOW, AND ENERGETIC
CONDITIONS LIMITATED
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER SEAS WITH SST OF 26.5°c, WICH IS JUST
THE MINIMAL THRESHOLD FOR DEVELOPMENT OR PERSISTENCE OF A TROPICAL LOW.

THE LOW HAS CURVED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS,
THEN WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT SHOULD COME THE CLOSEST TO AGALEGA (WHERE PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH
DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LOW)DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.

Thank you Chacor,

Also cat5 there is no recon over the eastern Atlatnic.

[Category 5]

Can you put up a case that France is just as good as the nhc. I would be interested in that.

Wow you think highly of the NHC until they don't upgrade something.

BTW: I'm quite aware of the fact that theres no recon in the Eastern Atlantic.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Can you put up a case that France is just as good as the nhc. I would be interested in that.

Wow you think highly of the NHC until they don't upgrade something.

BTW: I'm quite aware of the fact that theres no recon in the Eastern Atlantic.

I think highly of the nhc because they have earned it. But I'm also not a robot under their control, so when I or some one else thinks its a tropical cyclone, we will keep on doing so. I don't understand the big deal. There is nothing what so ever wrong with questioning why the nhc does not upgrade a cyclone. In fact, I never thought I would see the day when its wrong to do so.

[Category 5]

Can you put up a case that France is just as good as the nhc. I would be interested in that.

Wow you think highly of the NHC until they don't upgrade something.

BTW: I'm quite aware of the fact that theres no recon in the Eastern Atlantic.

I think highly of the nhc because they have earned it. But I'm also not a robot under their control, so when I or some one else thinks its a tropical cyclone, we will keep on doing so. I don't understand the big deal. There is nothing what so ever wrong with questioning why the nhc does not upgrade a cyclone. In fact, I never thought I would see the day when its wrong to do so.

You're missing my point completely, just forget it.

[vbhoutex]

You know what folks? This thread is very close to being locked. The petty arguing going on is ridiculous. Different people have posted the facts concerning this basin. NOTHING any of you say is going to change what is official out there at this time. If you want it changed contact the WMO directly with facts, requests, etc. that may have an effect on any decision they can make concerning this. From what I have read in this thread, it was not a tropical cyclone by definition. What some may want and what actually happened are two different things based on the current parameters in place for designating tropical cyclones. STOP the petty arguments and either discuss the system or other possible Meditteranean systems or this thread will be locked and appropriate actions as necessary will be taken by staff.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You know what folks? This thread is very close to being locked. The petty arguing going on is ridiculous. Different people have posted the facts concerning this basin. NOTHING any of you say is going to change what is official out there at this time. If you want it changed contact the WMO directly with facts, requests, etc. that may have an effect on any decision they can make concerning this. From what I have read in this thread, it was not a tropical cyclone by definition. What some may want and what actually happened are two different things based on the current parameters in place for designating tropical cyclones. STOP the petty arguments and either discuss the system or other possible Meditteranean systems or this thread will be locked and appropriate actions as necessary will be taken by staff.

I will stop vbhoutex, but what parameters did this not get? I understand they can't name it and your right about going to the WMO. But a case could be argued that was close to definition, of a warm core system based on fsu data. I know, I know we need more then that. But these are two interesting systems.

[Cryomaniac]

I think highly of the nhc because they have earned it. But I'm also not a robot under their control, so when I or some one else thinks its a tropical cyclone, we will keep on doing so. I don't understand the big deal. There is nothing what so ever wrong with questioning why the nhc does not upgrade a cyclone. In fact, I never thought I would see the day when its wrong to do so.

I agree with that.

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

please stop using the FSU data to determine if a system is warm core. You do realise that you are looking at a MODEL ANALYSIS and not a real storm, don't you? The model can quite easily be wrong.

You need to look at in situ data to determine if a cyclone is tropical, subtropical, or extra-tropical

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek, yeah I do understand that is a model. Can you show me the link, and tell me where to go to get real data, to tell if its a warm or cold core systems.. Thank you.

[Derek Ortt]

you need to look at rawindsonde data, also AMSU data to deetrmine if a TC is a warm core. Try the NRL website, CIMSS, AND UCAR