South China Sea: Tropical Storm Hagibis

[Chacor]

Wow at the JTWC forecast. Heading NE across the Philippines (JMA going ESE), and restrengthening to a TS.

[WindRunner]

For some reason I doubt that is restrengthening into a TS . . . maybe a gale, but this time of year and at that speed, I'd think such strengthening would be post-ET.

[Squarethecircle]

What's even more interesting is that the prognostic reasoning not only does not mention ETT at all, it doesn't suggest any possibilities of baroclinic intensification.

[WindRunner]

Well, that's probably because this afternoon's forecast is far more reasonable (dissipation in 36h) in not assuming such a transition or strengthening. If anything, this blob of energy and the scattered convection associated with it will make for a nice addition to some other developing storm.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0724 HAGIBIS (0724)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 11.7N 118.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 160NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 12.9N 123.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 281800UTC 14.1N 126.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 291800UTC 16.4N 130.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[CrazyC83]

JTWC just killed this one off, yet the JMA has it very much alive as a 45 kt storm.

[Squarethecircle]

JTWC just killed this one off, yet the JMA has it very much alive as a 45 kt storm.

I know, it's really weird. No way, however, that it survives beyond the Philippines, so they'll have to give up on it eventually. If I remember correctly, there was a chance of re-intensification before landfall a day or so ago, but it doesn't seem like that now.

[Chacor]

"They'll have to give up on it eventually"? Probably not. I think JTWC will reissue advisories at some point. Without intending to be rude, the JMA know what they're doing, and I'd say you don't really know this region that well, so...

[Coredesat]

WTPQ20 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0724 HAGIBIS (0724)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 14.0N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 160NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 16.5N 129.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 291200UTC 19.6N 132.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 301200UTC 23.1N 136.5E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =