Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Extremeweatherguy]

can someone post the hwrf? Someone said it bombs it out to 920mb!?!

Check out the 2 posts above yours.

[oyster_reef]

12Z Nogaps in...nasty!

Image did not work, is it nasty before or after passing bt SFL?

Can somebody please post the graphic run for the 12z GFDL.
ty

goes over DR and Cuba then explodes in the GOM...

this thing has no business entering the Gulf... we need a break. a LONG break.
Someone please take this off our hands.

[HurricaneBelle]

12z HWRF shows a major hurricane moving up the east coast of Florida between late Monday and Tuesday...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

And there at the end of the animation is 93L approaching the Leewards.

[weatherwoman]

I say from watching JB this thing will develop and run the EC with a land fall in NC that is just what they do, now JB did not say NC I am leaning towards a NC hit, but he does make some wonderful points about the models,

[gatorcane]

I say from watching JB this thing will develop and run the EC with a land fall in NC that is just what they do, now JB did not say NC I am leaning towards a NC hit, but he does make some wonderful points about the models,

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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[/quote]

I see no model support for an NC hit at this time. I still think its a Florida storm ultimately -- been calling it for several days now. Better yet, maybe it just dies off in the Big islands.

If its not Florida its going to be a close call either way.

When the GFDL and HWRF are predicting a run up the SE/E Coast of Florida with nearly identical tracks, I do open my eyes.

Of course two days from now these models may be 100 miles W or E of this track, who knows.

[weatherwoman]

if you go to the professional site in accuweather the gfs has it hitting nc the models you are looking at right now do not go out that far so no you dont see that yet I'm just saying from years of experence where this is tracking they take a track up the coast line and hit NC I'm going on what useually happens

[gatorcane]

Look a page or so back on this thread and note the GFDL and HWRF and the path right near or through the SE coast of Florida. I'm not sure what the GFS is seeing but seems to be utterly confused with 92L...it had it as just a weak wave yesterday.

and look below at the x-y-no image.

[x-y-no]

12z GFDL:

[Blown Away]

Look a page or so back on this thread and note the GFDL and HWRF and the path right near or through the East coast of Florida. I'm not sure what the GFS is seeing but seems to be utterly confused with 92L...it had it as just a weak wave yesterday.

When a cane comes very close to SFL they usually have a hard time missing either NC or SC.

[txwatcher91]

Look a page or so back on this thread and note the GFDL and HWRF and the path right near or through the East coast of Florida. I'm not sure what the GFS is seeing but seems to be utterly confused with 92L...it had it as just a weak wave yesterday.

Near but not ON FL, which means landfall could be further north. The main point is, anyone in the islands, Bahamas, Florida northward need to prepare for the worst. The Euro is very ominous from FL northward.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Things that make you go

[gatorcane]

Not only that folks but the GFDL, Euro, and HWRF are all showing 92L developing into a major cane if I am not mistaken. the only thing missing is the infamous NHC cone which should soon follow later on today -- that should stir up the media quite a bit IMHO.

Take note IFF these models start to consistently forecast this....

[Canelaw99]

Argh x-y-no...thanks so much for that image LOL Wouldn't that just be a happy birthday to me (bday is Monday).....

[KWT]

Wow very impressive GFDL, winds seem a little high given the pressure is only 964mbs but it is still a pretty strong hurricane by that point, esp given it went over PR breifly, DR then also E.Cuba for about 24hrs and still ends up as probably a high end cat-3 when winds adjusted down to the surface.

[gatorcane]

Here is just one of many examples of the classic S. FL system that rides the big islands and does the "hook" into SE Florida. These hooks were quite common back in the early to mid 1900s. Haven't seen one of these in a *long* while but models seem to be suggesting something like this (a bit more right though).

We'll need to watch this as time goes on...and as new model runs come available. For the sake of SE Florida I hope this does not come close to happening with 92L.

[Brent]

12z GFDL:

I'll second that

[Blown Away]

12z GFDL:

I'll second that

What is the closest lat/long point??

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like Cape Canaveral would not be so lucky according to the 12z GFDL. A direct hit on the Space Center and the popular tourist areas..




Also, if this run is correct, then there is no way my flight would be leaving at 11:55am on Tuesday from MCO.

[ronjon]

Here is just one of many examples of the classic S. FL system that rides the big islands and does the "hook" into SE Florida. These hooks were quite common back in the early to mid 1900s. Haven't seen one of these in a *long* while but models seem to be suggesting something like this (a bit more right though).

We'll need to watch this as time goes on...and as new model runs come available. For the sake of SE Florida I hope this does not come close to happening with 92L.

Yes Gatorcane, I was thinking Donna (1960) on the other thread.

[Extremeweatherguy]

x-y-no, where do you get those higher resolution GFDL images?