ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

NHC advisory position has 30.1N/79.6W, but that's a 3-hr forecast position. Looks west of there already and a little north of there. About 30.15N/79.8W.

[northjaxpro]

11 a.m. advisory from the NHC that Beryl is moving due west now at 10 mph. Now 60 mph 998 mb.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[LarryWx]

NHC advisory position has 30.1N/79.6W, but that's a 3-hr forecast position. Looks west of there already and a little north of there. About 30.15N/79.8W.

That's the 11 AM EDT position, not three hours ahead.

[Mouton]

Mouton, you are just to my east over on the coast at Amelia Island. How are the winds currently out there? Here at my house about 15 miles miles inland from you, I am already receiving winds gusting to near 30mph.

I don't have a wind gauge and my home is somewhat in a hollow so we are not experiencing winds of that velocity here. By my reckoning our winds are about 15MPH with an occasonal gust to 20mph at ground level albeit it may be about 5mph more at the tree tops.

Looking at the flags directly on the beach on the camera at Sandy Bottoms, I would say the winds are 10mph higher than here.

The weather station on the pier at Fernandina shows winds of 16kts with gust to 25kts...barometer down to 29.88.

[northjaxpro]

Mouton, you are just to my east over on the coast at Amelia Island. How are the winds currently out there? Here at my house about 15 miles miles inland from you, I am already receiving winds gusting to near 30mph.

I don't have a wind gauge and my home is somewhat in a hollow so we are not experiencing winds of that velocity here. By my reckoning our winds are about 15MPH with an occasonal gust to 20mph at ground level albeit it may be about 5mph more at the tree tops.

Looking at the flags directly on the beach on the camera at Sandy Bottoms, I would say the winds are 10mph higher than here.

The weather station on the pier at Fernandina shows winds of 16kts with gust to 25kts...barometer down to 29.88.

Thanks. I am not sure I will be able to get out there to the beach yet. I kinow that there will be a very good chance DOT may close off the bridges crossing the Intracoastal going out there late today and tonight. I will update as much as posssible what's happening here at home, but your reports out at Amelia will really be good Mouton if I am not able to get out there or to Neptune Beach or Jax beach
late today.

[jdray]

Mouton, you are just to my east over on the coast at Amelia Island. How are the winds currently out there? Here at my house about 15 miles miles inland from you, I am already receiving winds gusting to near 30mph.

I don't have a wind gauge and my home is somewhat in a hollow so we are not experiencing winds of that velocity here. By my reckoning our winds are about 15MPH with an occasonal gust to 20mph at ground level albeit it may be about 5mph more at the tree tops.

Looking at the flags directly on the beach on the camera at Sandy Bottoms, I would say the winds are 10mph higher than here.

The weather station on the pier at Fernandina shows winds of 16kts with gust to 25kts...barometer down to 29.88.

Thanks. I am not sure I will be able to get out there to the beach yet. I kinow that there will be a very good chance DOT may close off the bridges crossing the Intracoastal going out there late today and tonight. I will update as much as posssible what's happening here at home, but your reports out at Amelia will really be good Mouton if I am not able to get out there or to Neptune Beach or Jax beach
late today.

Come on, the Dames Point is safe.....


I know they've closed the Buckman Bridge @ 45mph before, so the ditch bridges and dames point will be shut down for a few at least.

[jinftl]

This buoy is about 50 miles due west of the 11am center fix for Beryl so we should see some good data coming up...latest wind reading showed sustained winds of 33 mph (29 kts) gusting to 42 mph (37 kts)

Station 41012
Location: 30.042N 80.534W
Date: Sun, 27 May 2012 13:50:00 UTC

Winds: NNW (330°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 36.9 kt

[NDG]

They did moved the track southward for about 10-15 miles, not that it makes a difference.

[jinftl]

good point - with systems like this the worst weather can be removed from the actual center...if we were tracking an eyewall of a major hurricane...that's when 10-15 mile wobbles and jogs can mean the difference between Homestead vs. downtown Miami conditions experienced in Andrew.

They did moved the track southward for about 10-15 miles, not that it makes a difference.

[crimi481]

If the moving of position more south is a Trend (not a wobble) -then could make difference later

[wxman57]

NHC advisory position has 30.1N/79.6W, but that's a 3-hr forecast position. Looks west of there already and a little north of there. About 30.15N/79.8W.

That's the 11 AM EDT position, not three hours ahead.

No, the advisory is written hours before. It's a forecast position based on the center location 3 hours prior, at 12Z.

[ROCK]

I thought it would have transitioned already...but you can really tell the shear has let up quite a bit.....nice banding taking shape with feathering of the high clouds....need some HOT TOWERS...lol...to fire over the center and game on....

[jinftl]

Latest wind reports:

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1200 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MAYPORT NAS N22G36
JACKSONVILLE N20G26
JAX NAS N20
JAX CRAIG N28G37
JAX CECIL N13
ST AUGUSTINE N24G35
ORMOND BEACH NW20G26
DAYTONA BEACH 76 W14G21



Latest wind reports:

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MAYPORT NAS N13G25
JACKSONVILLE N14G21
JAX NAS N23G29
JAX CRAIG N12G26
JAX CECIL N14
ST AUGUSTINE NW17G31
ORMOND BEACH NW20G26
DAYTONA BEACH NW16G24

[psyclone]

this is precisely the type of relatively harmless, fun storm i would love to have headed toward me. most places will probably have winds under the threshold for issuing a SVR during afternoon convection. probably lots of 30-40mph winds with a few higher gusts and some cool looking sideways rainfall. the immediate beaches in regions of onshore flow may get higher winds but even there, it's tough to imagine this doing much more than toppling a few compromised trees or rearranging some neglected lawn furniture. that seems like a fair trade relative to the beneficial rains headed to a drought stricken region. bring it!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Riptide]

Regarding Beryl and the tropical atlantic ACE; it's not being factored into the accumulated cyclone energy because it's a subtropical system? I really think this deserves to be considered tropical, mabye in post-analysis...

[Hello32020]

I think I remember reading about a subtropical storm with sustained hurricane-force winds. How likely is it that Beryl could strengthen more, but remain subtropical?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

Keep in mind sub-tropical is a reference to the internal structure of the system and not the winds. Nor' easters in winter can have winds over hurricane force, but they are not tropical in make-up.


From 11am Discussion by NHC:

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.

Regarding Beryl and the tropical atlantic ACE; it's not being factored into the accumulated cyclone energy because it's a subtropical system? I really think this deserves to be considered tropical, mabye in post-analysis...

[tropicwatch]

Beryl is starting to look like a good looking storm. Will be interesting to see if the convection continues to build an tightens up around the center.

Tropicwatch

[LarryWx]

NHC advisory position has 30.1N/79.6W, but that's a 3-hr forecast position. Looks west of there already and a little north of there. About 30.15N/79.8W.

That's the 11 AM EDT position, not three hours ahead.

No, the advisory is written hours before. It's a forecast position based on the center location 3 hours prior, at 12Z.

Are you 100% sure that this is the standard NHC procedure? After all of these years, I had no idea that this is how they did it. I'm a bit disappointed and shocked to hear that the NHC doesn't instead just utilize the latest available center fix based on satellites, radars, or recon for their intial position. How difficult is it to reincorporate this? Why do they do this? Anyone?