2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[MHC Tracking]

Seems to partially arise from phantom Hispaniolan vorticity. Looks overdone as a result

[Wampadawg]

06Z GFS wakes up and is bigtime. This is from tropical wave that will emerge Africa later today.

https://i.imgur.com/Pu6T6KA.gif

Very early in the game but two runs in the bank,may get interesting ?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1551171947836411904




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1551191064442245120

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1551171947836411904

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1551191064442245120

If I remember correctly, there is often a lag of favorable conditions arriving with the MJO. Maybe I am thinking of something else though?

[AtlanticWind]

I think we still put too much stock in model genesis beyond say 4 or 5 days.
The models fluctuate a lot out at longer lead times .

I tend to watch waves and how convectivly active they are after coming off Africa as we
approach peak season.
We often see models jump on a wave in the atlantic when they flare up and maintain convection.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1551171947836411904

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1551191064442245120

If I remember correctly, there is often a lag of favorable conditions arriving with the MJO. Maybe I am thinking of something else though?

This is correct.

[tropicwatch]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1551171947836411904

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1551191064442245120

If I remember correctly, there is often a lag of favorable conditions arriving with the MJO. Maybe I am thinking of something else though?

This is correct.

Conditions are getting there. Just need the SAL to let up.

[lsuhurricane]

18z GFS turns the switch on after 200 hours. Brings back the vorticity from the 0z and 6z runs and develops in the GOM. This specific run also has a deep Caribbean storm moving NW towards the Yucatán.

Get ready!

[cycloneye]

First run, long range. I posted this morning the 06z run when it had a GOM storm moving to south Texas but at 12z nothing. This run has it very weak and more north. Is better to wait for more runs and if other models join GFS to then believe.

[Wampadawg]

First run, long range. I posted this morning the 06z run when it had a GOM storm moving to south Texas but at 12z nothing. This run has it very weak and more north. Is better to wait for more runs and if other models join GFS to then believe.

Does that track look familiar??

[captainbarbossa19]

First run, long range. I posted this morning the 06z run when it had a GOM storm moving to south Texas but at 12z nothing. This run has it very weak and more north. Is better to wait for more runs and if other models join GFS to then believe.

Does that track look familiar??

Track looks like 1900 Galveston or Laura, but like cycloneye said, I want to see other models jump on board first before I start paying close attention.

[Wampadawg]

First run, long range. I posted this morning the 06z run when it had a GOM storm moving to south Texas but at 12z nothing. This run has it very weak and more north. Is better to wait for more runs and if other models join GFS to then believe.

Does that track look familiar??

Track looks like 1900 Galveston or Laura, but like cycloneye said, I want to see other models jump on board first before I start paying close attention.

Agreed, but could be that deep throw to end zone TD to take the lead on the Euro ,lol

[Hurricane Mike]

Super-super long range, the CFS climate model a day or two ago showed a wave leaving Africa soon that becomes a storm/hurricane in the Gulf around August 7th, and then shows a long-tracked Cape Verde storm that goes north of the U.S. Virgin Islands, through the Bahamas and straight into Southeast Florida by August 24.

All speculative, but a sign of possible activity to come.

[St0rmTh0r]

Super-super long range, the CFS climate model a day or two ago showed a wave leaving Africa soon that becomes a storm/hurricane in the Gulf around August 7th, and then shows a long-tracked Cape Verde storm that goes north of the U.S. Virgin Islands, through the Bahamas and straight into Southeast Florida by August 24.

All speculative, but a sign of possible activity to come.

speculative but expected. thats right on time for peak season. florida and the gulf are in the hot seat i believe.

[Nimbus]

Super-super long range, the CFS climate model a day or two ago showed a wave leaving Africa soon that becomes a storm/hurricane in the Gulf around August 7th, and then shows a long-tracked Cape Verde storm that goes north of the U.S. Virgin Islands, through the Bahamas and straight into Southeast Florida by August 24.

All speculative, but a sign of possible activity to come.

The TUTT just off the CONUS is still there but could split or be replaced by ridging high pressure by late August.
Latest Sal outbreak looks like it came off Africa a little further north as the ITCZ is starting its migration.
The averages for major hurricanes tracking into south Florida have changed in recent decades. Possibly they were skewed high from an active period when conditions were more conducive. DJT took the gamble at Mar a Lago in 1985 and survived hurricane Andrew.

[Spacecoast]

FWIW, GEFS for August.
Seems to suggest mostly CA / EPAC activity, then shifting towards / near OBX .


edit: slowed it down a bit...

[cycloneye]

FWIW, GEFS for August.
Seems to suggest mostly CA / EPAC activity, then shifting towards / near OBX .
https://i.ibb.co/BTBvN7C/huurb.gif

That animation is very fast that can't see the features / numbers.

[Blown Away]

FWIW, GEFS for August.
Seems to suggest mostly CA / EPAC activity, then shifting towards / near OBX .
https://i.ibb.co/BTBvN7C/huurb.gif

That animation is very fast that can't see the features / numbers.

12Z GEFS... Definite uptick in the Atlantic in the long range compared to 00z...

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS has a small system impacting Nicaragua again in 1 week.

[lsuhurricane]

12z GFS has a small system impacting Nicaragua again in 1 week.

Last week of the 12z GFS ensemble run indicates a great deal of low pressure near Central America migrating northward and developing in the GOM. Some members are intense. Looks to be the primary area to watch. Also interesting that the MDR slowly looks favorable on the ensembles during the same timeframe.