Charley Advisories

[Janie34]

Just like a man not to stop and ask for directions....

*ducks the rotten fruit* Couldn't help it! Sorry! Sorry

*snicker*

[EDR1222]

Ok, I could be wrong, just looks like on the last couple satellite loops that Charleys western edge is getting flat, possibley a sign the storm is going to have a more northward component to its movement? I know it was relocated earlier, but that seems to have just been a wobble?
Any thoughts? Be kind I am not a proffessional met, just enjoy all this and looking at the satellite photos

[cycloneye]

Yes it is more evident as the pics update that an eye feature is appearing and yes more south than what the models and NHC haved been saying and that southward position will have important implications in the future track.

[PTrackerLA]

Definately looks like an eye forming. This thing could be a hurricane in the next advisory. The west motion is concerning me about Charley missing the trough and/or being too slow to be fully turned by it only to have a high build in and force it more to the west again. Not saying I think that's gonna happen but I'll still be concerned about the storm until it is inland.

[lookout]

You just called Charley a girl, how could you

LOL. oops. Appearantly its not my eyes i need to worry about uh? ;

[Typhoon_Willie]

Welcome aboard EDR1222! I hope that you enjoy all the things that we have here at Storm2k! Do you have a link to this loop?

[Stormcenter]

Ok, I could be wrong, just looks like on the last couple satellite loops that Charleys western edge is getting flat, possibley a sign the storm is going to have a more northward component to its movement? I know it was relocated earlier, but that seems to have just been a wobble?
Any thoughts? Be kind I am not a proffessional met, just enjoy all this and looking at the satellite photos

Looks wnw if not due west to me. Definitely looks like it won't strike Jamiaca.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[PTrackerLA]

It looked like that last night ...even looked like it was heading almost NW only to wake up this morning and the motion is nearly due West. We'll have to wait and see whether this is a new trend or just a wobble/illusion.

[pavelbure224]

what is that line of clouds that just blows to the west of charley in the last couple of images

[rtd2]

Last night to this a.m. is definatly NOT a wobble this thing has a heading due west .....as I said here first thing this a.m. this storm WILL MISS jamaca and possibly cuba all alowing further development

[rainstorm]

some people disagreed with me when i suggested bonnie and charley would interact

[cycloneye]

PT you over there in Louisiana must watch CHarley until it is clear that it not pose a threat to New Orleans and Lafayette.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest satellite images indeed show the beginnings of an eye. This is starting to concern me as it is doing the CLASSIC explosive deepening normally seen in this area of the Caribbean. It reminds me of Iris in 2001 as it looks like the system is not that big as we all first thought. Hurricane by 5pm becoming likely.

Seems like the NHC will bust BIGTIME as far as intensity is concerned...

[chris_fit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks WNW to me on WV Loop

~Chris

[cycloneye]

Hyperstorm also like Mitch at that same area.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm going to keep my eyes on it for sure as I've seen stranger things happen with forecasted paths. I'm not expecting it to come this way but I think the strength of Bonnie will have alot to do with the future of Charley.

And I just checked the latest visible sat pics from the GHCC site, Charley definately has an eye and is moving almost due west .

[rainstorm]

makes sense. i was sayng last night the interaction between bonnie and charley would force charley a little more west

[Stephanie]

Good point Weatherboy.

[tw861]

I'm seeing some posts that maybe some of the models are starting to trend back to the west. I haven't really looked at the so I don't know, but I have plotted the recon fixes from yesterday through the latest this morning and have come to this conclusion:

First fix yesterday was at 15.2/70.4, the latest fix this morning was at 16.4/76.0 this yields a motion of about 275 to 280 degrees max. This is less than the 285 to 290 TPC had been using with their center estimates while there was no recon.

Looking at zoomed in visibles this morning still seems to show a mostly westward motion at this time. Also seems to be moving at a slower speed. It only stands to reason that the models may begin to trend back westward. I'm sure he will eventually be pulled northward by the trough but depending on how far south he stays now the could be a small chance of missing the turn to the northeast and eventually turning back to the west or northwest as high pressure builds in behind the trough. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened, although this trough is unusually strong. They key is how far south he stays before making the initial turn.

One other note, Charley is already 150 to 175 miles south of the NHC forecast track from last night and early this morning and we are talking about the first 12 hours or so of the forecast. Thats a fairly large error. You have to think that a 120 hour forecast will also be affected

I'm no profesional, just making some observations based on the recon data which I do consider concrete. Time will tell and we all will be watching.

[Hyperstorm]

Hyperstorm also like Mitch at that same area.

Yeah, there have been many storms that have exploded here in recent years, but if we compare this one with a same-sized system, I would say Iris. The most I see this one becoming is a Category 4, and that's if the current trends continue.

It is in fact, an "average" to even slightly "below average" sized system and these tend to have some sudden intensification phases.