Florida Weather

[SouthFloridian92]

This weather can go straight to hell.

[gatorcane]

No cool air for Florida through the next 10 days according to the ECMWF. It does looks like the GFS tries to sneak some cooler air in down the peninsula in about a 8 days or so. We will see what model has it right but I am not banking on the GFS as it is known to be too aggressive with troughs in that range.

Meanwhile outside today summer-like conditions continue with SE winds and widely scattered storms moving in on the flow off of the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

Don't look now but the GFS is trending cooler again with next weekends cool front. Not buying it!

[northjaxpro]

The frontal system is draped right across the Jacksonville area this morning as we jhave quite the convergent band set up right over the Northern portions of Duval county and right over my home locale. We have been drenched this morning. Still pouring currently. I took a quick peek at the rain gauge and I have nearly picked up 2 inches just within the past 30 minutes.




The front will sag just to the south of Jax today and bring a surge of northeast winds along with it, courtesy of a modified Polar 1032 mb High centered over Illinois. Well, our string of record to near record breaking heat has finally come to an end here. But we will pay a price of heavy rain and windy conditions today into tomorrow. Highs should be in the low-mid 70s for much of this week. Just enough to only bring us to near or slightly above average temperature -wise for this time of year.

Still no indications of a major cooldown yet. GFS is hinting at a potential polar airmass infiltrating into the Midwest and Eastern U.S. within the 10 day range, but I am not quite sold on that yet until we get an indication that the NAO trends to negative phase. I am inclined to think this won't happen until sometime in December to be frank.

[psyclone]

mid 70's dewpoints today under a rich southerly flow...thunderstorms offshore the west coast slowly edging toward shore. last night we had a good light show over the interior with seabreeze driven convection...something I've never seen so late in the year. the good news is the record heat is going to relent. while we don't have a dramatic cool down coming we're late enough in the fall that even a return to slightly above normal temps will provide some delightful weather. I am not hoping for a big cold blast...the last thing I want is to need to blow money on heat after 6 months of sweating it out...a dose of 80's over 60's should feel wonderful and allow for some vigorous outdoor activity without risking heatstroke or feeling miserable. in the interim...I'm off to the beach to make the most out of this bizarre warmth.

[boca]

It doesn't matter about El Niño because I think the prediction of cooler and wetter weather for South Florida is not going to happen.We are having the same weather as if it were a La Niña pattern so 90 degrees this fall is crap

[TheStormExpert]

It doesn't matter about El Niño because I think the prediction of cooler and wetter weather for South Florida is not going to happen.We are having the same weather as if it were a La Niña pattern so 90 degrees this fall is crap

Couldn't agree with you more! This pattern we are in seems stuck and not looking likely to anywhere in the foreseeable future. Not to mention when exactly will this so called El Niño pattern with wetter/cooler weather settle in? This Super El Niño is going to put a busting fork in the Winter Forecast for most of Florida at this rate.

[gatorcane]

The latest 18Z GFS continues to show two cool (cold) spells for the SE United States and Florida with one next weekend and a stronger one in the long range on the 18-20th.

[chaser1]

Well, aside from a few degree drop in temps by tomm. eve, I cant tell you how thrilled I am that Central Florida looks to be getting a real (short lived) "cool front" comin' through sometime Friday. Mid/upper 70's for highs this weekend, and (drum roll begins) ....WAIT FOR IT - upper 50's for lows. Heck, you Panhandle folk as well as up in Jax., might see mid 50's. "Break out the fleece, flannels, & London Fog attire" LOL

[chaser1]

As for those of you S. Fla. folks, this drier advection of air looks should make it all the way down there too (other than being more like near/low 80's for highs & perhaps low/mid 60's for lows).

[psyclone]

Major relief from unseasonable heat & humidity is on the way.

[NDG]

Another record breaking high in Orlando today, the skies looked really summer like with deep blue skies & towering cumulonimbus clouds at the distance.
Finally some much needed change this weekend, might actually see slight below average temps in central FL, but it will be short lived.

Code: Select all

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
428 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015


...................................

...THE ORLANDO  CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 9 2015...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1892 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         91R  1245 PM  90    1911  80     11       69
  MINIMUM         75    719 AM  38    1976  60     15       58
  AVERAGE         83                        70     13       64

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF doesn't seem nearly as cool for Florida as the GFS

[TheStormExpert]

Well by the looks of the latest teleconnection forecasts it looks like the NAO will finally go somewhat negative mid month and into the second half of this month. The AO will also go somewhat negative to neutral around mid month and beyond. The PNA tries to gradually trend neutral to positive through and beyond mid month.

All in all cooler air may be lurking for parts of Florida, just be patient. The GFS has been hinting at just that(though mostly in the long range where it can't be trusted). The Euro on the other hand keeps things rather mild to even warmer than average for most of Florida through the next 10 days at least.

I'll be rooting for the GFS in hopes that Florida(including South FL) can finally get some well deserved cooler and much less humid weather!

NAO Forecast


AO Forecast


PNA Forecast

[NDG]

The ECMWF doesn't seem nearly as cool for Florida as the GFS

You ain't kidding, I had not noticed how much warmer the Euro is for the FL Peninsula than the GFS is for this coming weekend.
For example it shows widespread 70s & 80s for highs across central and southern FL on Saturday, lows only in the 60s & 70s for central and southern FL Saturday & Sunday morning while the GFS has lows well into the 50s for central FL and highs only in the low 70s.

[chaser1]

0Z EURO hardly looks all that differernt from its earlier run this a.m. Still, I believe that in part we are at least seeing a greater extent of detail from the GFS than what the available EURO offers. Also, the EURO seems to push that S.E. Conus high a bit faster to the east, thus resulting in a faster offshore flow. Meanwhile, the 0Z GFS seems to park that high pushing the cold front down the state, and is a little slower to bring Florida those warmer Easterly breezes. Though the EURO might be on to something by showing warmer 500mb heights, though I believe that the advection set up that the GFS is advertising will still bring upper 50's into Northern and Central Florida for Friday night. Perhaps 2-4 degrees warmer Sat. night. However, the gradient looks to be fairly brisk and thus daytime temps might still remain in the 70's throughout the Northern half of the state. Even still, S. Florida should equally feel a fair cool down as compared to recent day and night-time temps.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has dropped the second stronger cold front into Florida forecast looking at the past 2 runs. Instead is showing warmer than normal temperatures after a brief cool down over this weekend.

[TheStormExpert]

Man if I had a dollar for every time the GFS showed an big cold front for Florida in the long range I'd be rich!

[gatorcane]

GFS long-range. Hmmm

[psyclone]

both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show above normal temps over the east including florida but it's important to note that the averages are quickly falling...80 would be above average for central fl during that timeframe so we're in that time of year where slightly above normal temps = classic chamber of commerce weather perfect for outdoor activities.