CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Sanibel]

Bit of a hard wobble west. We'll see how it translates to track.

[wxmann_91]

J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA

That's a weak differential.

Not sold on Cat 5 yet for Dean, I'd like to see some higher cloud tops for that to happen. Although the current intensity, structure, and the Derek Ortt & NHC fcsts would argue a pretty high likelihood for 5.

That isn't the differential.

Agh!!!!! Thanks for correcting me...

[Evil Jeremy]

THE UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

No mention of it slowing down this time.

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200243
XXAA 70027 99174 70784 04478 99939 27229 20601 00/// ///// /////
92135 27441 20606 85/// 26057 20599 70579 14000 22105 88999 77999
31313 09608 80217
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 11
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1743N07841W 0219 MBL WND 20104 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 70028 99174 70784 04478 00939 27229 11901 27856 22850 26057
33711 18811 44697 12600
21212 00939 20601 11930 21102 22921 20109 33910 19599 44897 20110
55884 20102 66869 20103 77850 20599 88697 22105
31313 09608 80217
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 11
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1743N07841W 0219 MBL WND 20104 AEV 00000 =

939 mb; surface winds of 101 knots; MBL winds of 104 knots.


Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200248
XXAA 70027 99176 70787 04478 99934 26412 00104 00/// ///// /////
92089 26609 01105 85837 23206 02080 70522 15400 04583 88999 77999
31313 09608 80222
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1749N07871W 0225 MBL WND 01093 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 02582 934707 WL150 00605 075 =
XXBB 70028 99176 70787 04478 00934 26412 11850 23206 22725 18008
33705 16600 44697 14400
21212 00934 00104 11920 01105 22908 01590 33896 02083 44850 02080
55697 04583
31313 09608 80222
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1749N07871W 0225 MBL WND 01093 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 02582 934707 WL150 00605 075 =

934 mb; surface winds of 104 knots; MBL winds of 93 knots.

[jabman98]

The 0z NAM is starting to run ... it'll be interesting to see how it treats the ULL as well as Dean. Not that I trust this model at all ... only curious as its the first 0z model out for consumption and I'm kinda curious what it does with this low, if anything at all.

The 0z NAM is showing a landfall in far northeast Mexico.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

This is well north of the 18z run.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

Wow, that's quite a difference. Interesting! Thanks for posting that.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042007.html

a watch is neeeded to Veracruz first thing tomorrow

not sure why warnings are going up now... storm is more than 24 hours away and it is 11 p.m., nothing will get done until tomorrow morning anyways

[CronkPSU]

until i see the storm actually change direction, i will stick with the NHC track, they have been pretty close the past week with it, the models have been consistent, i was sucked in earlier this week by the GFDL outlier but until I see it turn north, I am not going to buy into the ULL stall/Texas landfall hype

[dwg71]

The 0z NAM is starting to run ... it'll be interesting to see how it treats the ULL as well as Dean. Not that I trust this model at all ... only curious as its the first 0z model out for consumption and I'm kinda curious what it does with this low, if anything at all.

The 0z NAM is showing a landfall in far northeast Mexico.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

This is well north of the 18z run.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

That is not a big difference at all, maybe 75 miles. Nothing to even worry about. Have all models trend up into TX and then we will see.

[Cape Verde]

I wouldn't expect this to be mentioned in tonight's 11pm discussion. They would probably wait until 5am or 11am tomorrow IF the ULL decides to actually stall. As of right now though, a 4-7 hour trend really isn't enough. Let's see if it still has not moved much by morning, and then we can begin to worry.

I'm good with waiting. But instead of feeling confident, I no longer am.

I was pretty much counting on that ridge to protect my family, and it's not showing up as advertised. This is an alarming development in the Cape Verde household.

No panic here. I just thought it was done deal that this storm would die in Mexico. I'm not so sure now.

[Brent]

This is obviously WAY into Mexico bound unless it slows down and starts gaining some serious latitude.

[jwayne]

[quote="Evil Jeremy"]THE UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

No mention of it slowing down this time.[/quote]

I would think that no movement by ULL for almost 7 hours would be worth a mention. They are playing with about 8 hours here. If it doesn't start moving by early morning, they got a BIG problem with the track.

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THE EYE OF DEAN HAS BEEN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA SINCE ABOUT
1900 UTC AND HAS JUST CROSSED THE LONGITUDE OF NEGRIL ON THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND. THE CENTER CAME WITHIN ABOUT 20 N MI OF
PORTLAND POINT ON THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO KINGSTON. WHILE PASSING BY JAMAICA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE EYE DIAMETER WAS GRADUALLY
SHRINKING. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARRIVED IN THE
EYE OF DEAN AT 0130 UTC AND REVEALED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN
TO NEAR 925 MB...AND THAT DEAN NOW HAS A SINGLE EYEWALL AT A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 15 N MI. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR
HAVE BEEN 121 KT...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 143
KT...BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT
125 KT.

DEAN IS HEADING TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KT WITH STEERING
PROVIDED BY A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL GET EVEN
STRONGER AND MOVE A LITTLE WESTWARD WITH DEAN...MEANING THAT DEAN
WILL PROBABLY MOVE IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN EDGED A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NOAA
GULFSTREAM-IV JET CONDUCTED A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION THIS
EVENING TO PROVIDE DATA FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THE JET WILL
CONTINUE TO FLY MISSIONS EVERY 12 HOURS TO COLLECT DATA THROUGH THE
12Z MODEL CYCLE TUESDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND THE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERY HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT
AND INDICATES THAT DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN WHILE OVER YUCATAN IN
PROPORTION TO JUST HOW LONG IT SPENDS OVER LAND. THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LIKEWISE DEPENDS ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND THAT WINDOW HAS BEEN SHORTENING WITH THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFTS IN TRACK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DEAN COULD
RESTRENGTHEN AND AGAIN REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO FINAL
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 81.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 84.9W 140 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.2N 88.4W 105 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/0000Z 19.8N 91.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 99.0W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Portastorm]

From the NHC 11 pm discussion: "The models all agree that the ridge will get even
stronger and move a little westward with Dean...meaning that Dean
will probably move in a rather straight line until final landfall
in Mexico."

[mgpetre]

>>Certainly didn't see that coming. Wait for more models before resuming panic though Texas.

That area is within the 5 day cone by the NHC.

Steve

yeah, it's an outlier...meaning that NE Mexico/Texas is less likely a target...SW Louisiana is even less likely if even possible with such a strong ridge and a ULL moving out of the way and showing no signs of stalling as some are wishfully suggesting.

I am by no means wishfully suggesting that the ULL is stalling, it is evident in the last 4 to 5 hours worth of WV images that it has stopped its westward progress (albeit it could be temporary.) We that live in Houston DO NOT want to see Dean here, but something felt a bit fishy about the forecast to me since yesterday morning and I'm not going to allow myself to get caught offguard. I respect the opinions of the Pro Mets tremendously, but I also have a right to my own. Now if I'm simply misreading the water vapor loops that's one thing, but do not assume that I wish for this to happen.

The ULL seems to be possibly elongating as some had pondered in this thread earlier. I don't know what that may mean, just and observation.

[HURAKAN]

[sphelps8681]

A serious concern now guys...it appears the ULL has stalled. Why did the NHC push the cone south??

What will this mean for Texas?

Dean will be slingshoted toward Texas in my opinion.

Where do you think in Texas? As of now, being in SE Texas we have not done much planning since most of what we have been watching as been Mex/S. Texas. Any info would be appreciated.

[philnyc]

Wxman57 knows what he's talking about. Dr. Frank has publicly said that his church groups have successfully prayed storms away when he lived in South Florida. Go google it if you don't believe me.

link please

Per your request, here ya' go.

http://www.spiritdaily.org/Prayers/frank.htm

Yes, this left many of us shaking our heads. I'm still wondering what the scientific principle is here, since studying hurricanes is a scientific discipline...

[wxmann_91]

I'd take the consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, and pretty much every other model (except some of the GFS Ensembles) over the unreliable NAM any day.

[RL3AO]

It is probably too far south to have that ULL make a serious affect on the track but I could be wrong.

[N2FSU]

I won't doubt the NHC, but I also agree that it looks like the ULL has slowed down significantly. Here is the WV loop from the Gulf:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

It sure looks like it slams on the brakes in the last few frames.