ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

or at least swampy flat peninsulas...fay has the atlantic 50 miles or so to her east and the Gulf 50 miles or so to her west....she is water-locked almost...where she had been landlocked over the weekend

Note to self: TC's have learned how to strengthen over land.
I hope the media doesn't figure out that she strengthened over land. The news reports would just start piling in!

[Weatherfreak14]

If this gets out a more strong storm than once forcasted, could this get farther north along the GA coast than tought, by being able to fight the ridge.

[chris_fit]

Tornado Warning Melbourne FL

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...MALABAR...
GRANT...CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...BAREFOOT BAY...
EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MICCO...OR
ABOUT NEAR SEBASTIAN INLET...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 38 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MALABAR BY 140 PM EDT...
PALM BAY BY 145 PM EDT...
7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE BY 150 PM EDT...
WEST MELBOURNE BY 155 PM EDT...
CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP BY 200 PM EDT...

THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW...SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!

[Dean4Storms]

If you asked me she really picked up steam/strength just before she made landfall and then with the turn NE she overcame what little shear was still affecting her and now she's feeding of perfect UL enviro. and the warm marshes and now Lake O.

[gatorcane]

entering Lake O now:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Does it look like tha tbig rain band will be able to spin over towards Tampa? -or is she headed too much to the NE for any rain to reach us?

[Sanibel]

It's not difficult to understand. Fay went over some of the best heat potential waters in the area all day yesterday. Fay just happened to get a favorable tack on the overhead conditions under the trough just at the same time the SST's started kicking in. The result was a delayed reaction and windspeed catch up to those SST-induced pressure drops after landfall. Yes, Fay has probably finally become a hurricane after landfall if 986 and 78mph sustained are accurate. This should give a little more credibility to GFDL's intensity prediction (but not that much).

If this did this same track west of Sanibel and passed over us it would have been a whole other deal here storm-wise.

[gatorcane]

I'm beginning to wonder if Tampa will see any rainfall from this....except if she can actually bend back west in a couple of days like models are hinting...

The Tampa forcfield has worked yet again ---

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If this gets out a more strong storm than once forcasted, could this get farther north along the GA coast than tought, by being able to fight the ridge.

Storms can't fight the ridges. The only time they have much impact at all is when they are big and CAT 5...and then just barely. The Ridges are like a wall to them. They liek to skirt the edges, but they can't go through.

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

Kudos, kudos, and a thousand times kudos to the National Hurricane Center on this one. Completely spot on from Advisory #1.

Advisory #1 Forecast ------------------------ Actual Intensity/Location
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INITIAL 35 KT...INLAND --------------------------- 35 KT/Inland
12HR VT 35 KT...INLAND ------------------------- 40 KT/Inland
24HR VT 35 KT...OVER WATER ------------------ 35 KT/Over Water
36HR VT 40 KT ------------------------------------- 45 KT/Over Water
48HR VT 40 KT ------------------------------------- 45 KT/Over Water
72HR VT 40 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA ------ 50 KT/ Over Key West
96HR VT 60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA -------- N/A KT/Inland Florida
120HR VT 40 KT...INLAND ------------------------- N/A KT/Inland Florida or Over Water

[Dean4Storms]

If this gets out a more strong storm than once forcasted, could this get farther north along the GA coast than tought, by being able to fight the ridge.

If the trend NE to E continues instead of a more northward motion I think she'll end up turning back further south then north. She is now lacking gaining latitude and a ridge pushing down will just impede that further IMO.

[tolakram]

Some boring old storm eh? These are the ones that teach us the most. The perfect environment but without water can still maintain a storm. I say maintain even though there is some evidence of strengthening. She must have been bombing right off the coast and that momentum has continued.

I would love to see a pro-met and the NHC analyze this.

[Iune]

Fay looks like a hurricane too me!

[gatorcane]

Who's to say she can't loop the other way (E then ESE then S then WSW).

Doubtful but Fay's is throwing alot of curve balls so I wonder!

[tolakram]

MIMIC

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

[cpdaman]

If this gets out a more strong storm than once forcasted, could this get farther north along the GA coast than tought, by being able to fight the ridge.

Storms can't fight the ridges. The only time they have much impact at all is when they are big and CAT 5...and then just barely. The Ridges are like a wall to them. They liek to skirt the edges, but they can't go through.

yup it all about the shape of the ridge's periphery in this case, and i wonder with the short wave axis starting to move east of this storm (at a higher latitude) if the ridge will build back west a tad or wether the periphery of the ridge's angle will change

[Blown Away]

Some really dark clouds moving from the SW towards Hobe Sound, I think this will be the best Fay has for me.