ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Stormcenter]

I can't remember the last time Texas got back to back hurricanes.

It's not a slam dunk that he is going into Texas. I would not be surprised if he ends up somewhere in
SW La.

[Yankeegirl]

Well i am going to be heading to the store shortly to get some batteries and candles just in case... if the path holds, the center is going to be very close to my location... even though i am well inland, i am getting ready... i am not sure if i believe its going to stay in tropical storm status... i think it might get a little stronger just before it moves inland... the waters just off the coast are like bathtub waters... hopefully the storms we have been having here most of the day settled the atmosphere...

[Stratosphere747]

That's what I was about to say. I'm sure KatDaddy just meant the Houston area... last I checked, the Golden Triangle was still part of Texas.

Here I am thinking.... again???

Why do you continue to insist that the Golden Triangle is part of Texas? Haven't you heard about the new bill to just move that entire part of East Texas into Louisiana..

Staying on topic -

Keep an eye up there. Even if this tracks more towards Matagorda/Port Lavaca or Galveston, you might get a healthy dose of rain.

[stevetampa33614]

Recon departing shortly

[HouTXmetro]

Recon departing shortly

Convection is not Deep ATM, wondering if they will find a weakening system?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can't remember the last time Texas got back to back hurricanes.

It's not a slam dunk that he is going into Texas. I would not be surprised if he ends up somewhere in
SW La.

In 1886, four hurricanes affected Texas, but only two made landfall in the state.

Or, pretty rare, not like Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon departing shortly

Convection is not Deep ATM, wondering if they will find a weakening system?

-70º cloud tops in convection SW of the center...

Edit to add -70ºC and image

[Tireman4]

I can't remember the last time Texas got back to back hurricanes.

It's not a slam dunk that he is going into Texas. I would not be surprised if he ends up somewhere in
SW La.

Who really knows? That is why meteorology can be a mystery.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well i am going to be heading to the store shortly to get some batteries and candles just in case... if the path holds, the center is going to be very close to my location... even though i am well inland, i am getting ready... i am not sure if i believe its going to stay in tropical storm status... i think it might get a little stronger just before it moves inland... the waters just off the coast are like bathtub waters... hopefully the storms we have been having here most of the day settled the atmosphere...

Skip the candles. Stick with flashlights.

[RL3AO]

Recon departing shortly

Where? I don't see any new RECCOs and HDOBs.

[HouTXmetro]

Recon departing shortly

Convection is not Deep ATM, wondering if they will find a weakening system?

-70º cloud tops in convection SW of the center...

I understand, but that doesn't help if the center is almost naked right? Don't we need convection over the LLC for strengthening?

[Sanibel]

Odd storm. A coast hugger off a stalled front. West bound.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HouTXMetro

Early enough/poorly organized enough center may reform closer to deep convection.


I'm guessing (not official or professional) it is currently near steady state in strength.

[hwego7]

How reliable do you think the path information is at this point? Obviously we're over a day out from landfall, but I haven't seen much deviation in the projected track. Is there a decent probability that it could slide right past Houston to the south or north?

Obviously being in the cone means to prepare (and we are) but is it a fairly stable cone?

Just go to the NHC.noaa.gov website for the information from the best mets in the world.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well i am going to be heading to the store shortly to get some batteries and candles just in case... if the path holds, the center is going to be very close to my location... even though i am well inland, i am getting ready... i am not sure if i believe its going to stay in tropical storm status... i think it might get a little stronger just before it moves inland... the waters just off the coast are like bathtub waters... hopefully the storms we have been having here most of the day settled the atmosphere...

Skip the candles. Stick with flashlights.

Glow sticks can be fun for the kids.

Edit: Okay... not just the kids.

[Stormcenter]

Still not going anywhere fast and the center is still where it's been all day....I don't see any center reformation yet.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[AnnularCane]

I can't remember the last time Texas got back to back hurricanes.

It's not a slam dunk that he is going into Texas. I would not be surprised if he ends up somewhere in
SW La.

I wouldn't either. Seems like a lot of the storms that are supposed to make landfall in that area hit north of there. I wonder if this one will break the streak or not.

[TexasStooge]

C'mon Eduardo! Swing over to DFW and cool us off!!!

[Rainband]

Texas can have them all this year. Y'all need rain I just hope oil doesn't go up. Oh wait I don't care I can afford it.

[MiamiensisWx]

I thought it would be interesting to mention this tidbit.

Here is the current mid level shear streamline analysis from CIMSS:

http://img379.imageshack.us/img379/4809/edouardmlshearaug3081hm6.png

Note the upper low and associated TUTT over the NW Caribbean that is currently located very close to Edouard. Yesterday, it was further from the system and enhanced ventilation/divergence and outflow. However, it has moved much closer, while Edouard has been very lethargic. I can't recall any TC that intensified beyond (marginal?) Category 1 intensity with an upper low so close to the SE of the TC. In fact, many analogous TCs in this type of situation did not exceed TS status. On the other hand, if the upper low is further SE (away from the TC) or SW of the system like Dolly and other cases, the TCs have tended to attain greater intensities (i.e. strong Cat 1+, as opposed to low end Cat 1 or weaker). Does anyone believe there is some support for this theory?

If support exists, the following explanation may describe the reasoning(s).

In a situation like Edouard, the upper air pattern to the NW and as a whole tends to be more "convoluted" and suspect to potentially unfavorable thermodynamic/synoptic factors. For instance, in this situation, there is typically a mid/upper level ridge NW of the TC that is also inducing northerly shear like the upper low immediately SE of the TC. In addition, these situations often feature mid level dry air from the North American continent, which is typical with many homegrown GOM TCs that develop via a broad surface trough. There is often a departing shortwave or surface front that leaves dry air in its wake, stabilizing the boundary layer to the south for certain time periods. Finally, the outflow from Mesoscale Convective Systems rotating around the ridge and overland convection often shears budding TCs.

Another factor is that this type of pattern (at the mid/upper levels) may reflect a less progressive pattern across the CONUS, unlike Dolly.

Does anyone else (professional meteorologists?) see my point?

Anyway, I'm sticking to my original belief that this one will not exceed solid/strong TS status.