ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[miamijaaz]

It seems to me the important thing to note is that now most models (except the UKMET) show a significant curve NW-NNW-N at days 3 and 4 of the forecast period. That tells me that there IS a weakness there. The million dollar question is where will the weakness be located 3-4 days from now.

[jlauderdal]

12z HWRF animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

that would put the NE quad over the se florida metro and really put a hurt on people if it verifies, you dont need anything close to a direct hit from a major to feel the punch

[Weatherfreak000]

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.

[jlauderdal]

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.

good, i hope it verifies next week

[sponger]

HRWF looks ugly! Like a bad b movie.

[Blown Away]

Comments on the new GFDL....

Look at the N component at the end of the track... It's between NW and NNW if I'm doing this correctly... Pretty much on it's way to a re curve if that weakness persists.

Plus it does not go as far W as previous runs. Idea may be right but the SW dive then sudden NNW turn is to extreme IMO.

[Bocadude85]

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.

I still think this goes south of Fla but I would like to say that the HWRF and GFS are actually north of the NHC track

[El Nino]

HRWF looks ugly! Like a bad b movie.

Image ?

[superdeluxe]

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.

Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?

[gboudx]

HRWF looks ugly! Like a bad b movie.

Image ?

See previous page.

[Weatherfreak000]

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.

Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?

UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...HWRF...EURO.....all South of the past NHC track.


It's a guarantee...they will shift track.

[Bocadude85]

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.

Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?

UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...HWRF...EURO.....all South of the past NHC track.


It's a guarantee...they will shift track.

Thats wrong the HWRF is NORTH look at the run as is the GFS

[gatorcane]

one problem I have with some of the models is that they seem "bias" in the direction of tropical cyclone's movements. In this case, as soon as Ike started moving WSW --- notice several models shifted left...

Yesterday when ike was moving WNW...several models were farther right....so when Ike makes that turn to the west and then WNW...watch several models shift right again.

When I look at the WV loop Ike's path is pretty clear and it looks like a path up through southern florida or near it looks very possible....:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

Not really actually, iots really on,y the GFDL thats south of the NHC ,all the other modelsthus far on the 12z are close to the NHC, they won't shift southwards I sholudn't think.

12z ECM at 48hrs a touch north of before, 22N 73W roughly but heading towards Cuba it seems...

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.

Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?

UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...HWRF...EURO.....all South of the past NHC track.


It's a guarantee...they will shift track.

They will ignore the UK im sure, The Nogaps is right on thier track,The HWRF is east of thier track..An you happened to miss the GFS is Further East and the GFDL is right of thier track?

[Bgator]

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.

Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?

UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...HWRF...EURO.....all South of the past NHC track.


It's a guarantee...they will shift track.

NOGAPS is basically with the NHC track, GFDL has ALWAYS been below the track, HWRF, hits land the same as the NHC track, UKMET, i doubt they will take into consideration, and the EURO has also been to the south the whole time. Maybe a SLIGHT shift south, but nothing major.

Does someone have a link to the EURO?

[rockyman]

Euro
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090500!!/

(12z hasn't updated yet)

[KWT]

From what I've hearing ECNM has landfall....in Texas...after crossing Cuba...

[AtlanticWind]

I dont see to much of a track shift since the Nhc has it going thru the keys which is in line with most relible models

[Orlando_wx]

what a total difference from yesterday with it being so far east i would like to hear wxman57 or afm on there thinking from yesterday to today..