ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[bob rulz]

That's what I thought.

Sometimes I have to refresh my memory at the beginning of the season, especially after such a long offseason, haha.

[Tropics Guy]

Based on Satellite presentation alone, looks real close to crossing the TD threshold again.................

TG

[Aric Dunn]

It maybe upgraded to a TS if this trend continues.. with the convection deepening..

[CrazyC83]

It maybe upgraded to a TS if this trend continues.. with the convection deepening..

It only needs to gain 5 kt to make the immediate jump once a definite LLC is found...

[Sanibel]

Guess SST's did the trick:

[vbhoutex]

ABNT20 KNHC 142325TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 12 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE ...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ... $$FORECASTER AVILA

[Aric Dunn]

Guess SST's did the trick:

it was most likely the lighter shear.. sst's have comeup in its path but the lighter shear is the key

[Aric Dunn]

It maybe upgraded to a TS if this trend continues.. with the convection deepening..

It only needs to gain 5 kt to make the immediate jump once a definite LLC is found...

there is no doubt about there being a closed circulation..

[jinftl]

90L is expected to be a girl.....maybe a sex-change will be in order for her at this rate (Ana to Bob)? hmmm...

[RL3AO]

It could still be upgraded at 11 right? This is on the verge...if not 11 then 5 for sure...

yeah ... thats not from the nhc..

Um...then were does the ATCF data come from if not the NHC?

[RL3AO]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET
INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME
ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

What did they find to be able to say this?

Not sure? I don't see any HDOB data...but they must see things we aren't seeing.

No, they are basing it on this drop.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1903296#p1903296

[bob rulz]

I don't see how this won't be upgraded at 11 to be honest. There is definitely a LLC, convection is strong and increasing, and the environment looks favorable ahead of it, not to mention it's moving into an area where it could potentially threaten the U.S. later on.

[jinftl]

Wouldn't it be ironic if we end up saying, 'if it only had developed 5 days ago it might have been a fish by now'?

I don't see how this won't be upgraded at 11 to be honest. There is definitely a LLC, convection is strong and increasing, and the environment looks favorable ahead of it, not to mention it's moving into an area where it could potentially threaten the U.S. later on.

[Aric Dunn]

It could still be upgraded at 11 right? This is on the verge...if not 11 then 5 for sure...

yeah ... thats not from the nhc..

Um...then were does the ATCF data come from if not the NHC?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index.html

[AnnularCane]

90L is expected to be a girl.....maybe a sex-change will be in order for her at this rate (Ana to Bob)? hmmm...

Even after all this time I still think of this one as Ana and 90L as Bill.

[Aric Dunn]

whats funny.. is all that shear that was forecast may not matter since its way farther south than what was originally forecasts. it may slide underneath all that..

[bob rulz]

I'm about 99% confident that this will become Ana before 90L will. 90L simply has too far to go, so unless we see this suddenly poof, which looks unlikely, it's going to be our first named storm.

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

[Scorpion]

I just cannot fathom how this is not a TD.

[JonathanBelles]

No, they are basing it on this drop.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1903296#p1903296

Can you explain that?