WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

Again, this is not true. Unless it was ADT, no other agency carried them at T8.0, or the JTWC would have definitely carried it. Don't spread false information just because you wish it was such!

[euro6208]

Again, this is not true. Unless it was ADT, no other agency carried them at T8.0, or the JTWC would have definitely carried it. Don't spread false information just because you wish it was such!

They all reached 8.0 on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Category 5]

If you're gonna claim something is stronger than Tip you're gonna have to do better than that. You'd need 8.0's across the board to even see it considered, even then, you'd need observations to confirm such a pressure. Sorry, no dice.

As for Nida, care to produce that T8.0? I can't find it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... c/26W.html

[Chacor]

Again, this is not true. Unless it was ADT, no other agency carried them at T8.0, or the JTWC would have definitely carried it. Don't spread false information just because you wish it was such!

They all reached 8.0 on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Good try. SAB has archives. Nida only reached T7.5. Stop spreading false information to further your claim.

[euro6208]

ok not nida but in the 1990's there are many

[Category 5]

ok not nida but in the 1990's there are many

Name 5, and produce the appropriate evidence please.

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THOUGH STRIPPED OF ITS SUPER
TYPHOON STATUS WHILE TRANSITING THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AROUND 0330Z, MEGI REMAINS A FORMIDABLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DEEPEST CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND
BECOME FRAGMENTED DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, MEGI
IS POSITIONED TO ENTER BACK OVER FAVORABLE WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND RE-INTENSIFY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THE PREVIOUS
TWO FORECASTS HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ACCESS DUE TO A LACK OF
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES AND UNREPRESENTATIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BASED ON SPIRAL BANDS RINGING
THE CENTER PART OF THE CIRCULATION IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. ONCE MEGI MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AN ADEQUATE INTENSITY ESTIMATE CAN BE DETERMINED WITH THE
DVORAK METHOD. UNTIL THEN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HINGED ON AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. NONETHELESS THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
RAMP UP QUICKLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, STRONG VORTICITY, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK DUE WEST FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN TURN MORE NORTH OF WEST TOWARDS A (SHORT WAVE)
TROUGH-INDUCED BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE. GFS, WBAR, AND NOGAPS
APPEAR TO EXCESSIVELY WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND STALL THE SYSTEM
IN THE EASTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR 1 TO 1.5 DAYS THEN PULL THE
SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY NORTH TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG. ECMWF WEAKENS
THE RIDGE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS, CONSISTENT WITH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED IN THE MID-LATITUDES, AND BUILDS THE RIDGE BACK IN TO THE
WEST AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES AROUND TAU 72. THIS FORECAST LIES ON
THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH TO DATE HAS PERFORMED
THE BEST AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS.
C. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE LATER
FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
LIKELY MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN INCITE SLIGHT WEAKENING AS
MEGI NEARS CHINA.//

[euro6208]

you have to log onto jtwc's site for the imagery. they are ivan,joan,paka,angela,and gay

[Category 5]

you have to log onto jtwc's site for the imagery. they are ivan,joan,paka,angela,and gay

Paka? Are you just pulling names out of a hat? Paka wasn't even close, please do some research. Angela and Gay are the only 2 on your list that had higher readings than Tip, and those have been long established as potential record holders. Btw, I'm pretty sure Ivan and Joan never got there either.

Please produce evidence to support your claims.

[euro6208]

i'm talking about storms who reached 8.0 not storms with higher t numbers than tip

[Category 5]

i'm talking about storms who reached 8.0 not storms with higher t numbers than tip

Yes, I know, you're still 2 for 5. Ivan and Joan hit 8.0 on DD and that isn't exactly used officially. Paka never hit 8.0.

You'd know this if you researched it before making the claims.

[Chacor]

Ivan and Joan received Digital Dvorak of 8.0. However, DD is/was an automated system, not unlike what ADT is. JTWC 1997 ATCR has a line that says "DD algorithm on the satellite image processing equipment at JTWC", which only goes to show that this was computerised and internal.

Subjectively, and publicly, the storms never received a forecaster's fix of T8.0.

[Chacor]

euro, I think we need to make one thing clear.

There is a difference between automated Dvorak systems (ADT, DD) and subjective, forecaster-analysed Dvorak. The former is arguably much less reliable than the latter. While it may be true the storms you mentioned may have hit 8.0 on ADT or DD, no forecaster ever issued a fix bulletin on those storms at that intensity. And that says a lot if a trained forecaster chooses not to do so.

[SouthDadeFish]

What storms in any basin have reached 8.0 based upon a forecaster's analysis?

[Tom8]

Video from Philipines
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/video/nation ... ls-isabela

Isabela binayo ng bagyong‘ Juan’

[Chacor]

What storms in any basin have reached 8.0 based upon a forecaster's analysis?

Almost none. Even with Megi, no one went for T8.0. Which is why I simply don't buy a claim that so many storms have hit this rating.

Even Wilma, the strongest Atlantic storm on record, only hit a max of T7.0/7.0 (from KGWC).

[euro6208]

euro, I think we need to make one thing clear.

There is a difference between automated Dvorak systems (ADT, DD) and subjective, forecaster-analysed Dvorak. The former is arguably much less reliable than the latter. While it may be true the storms you mentioned may have hit 8.0 on ADT or DD, no forecaster ever issued a fix bulletin on those storms at that intensity. And that says a lot if a trained forecaster chooses not to do so.

ok i was basing everything through adt or dd.

[Chacor]

The SAB/SSD, which you linked to earlier, is subjective analysis. Basically, any Dvorak rating which is produced by a forecaster after analysis of a storm's satellite signature is, by its very nature, subjective. All the ratings on the SAB page have accompanying forecaster bulletins: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/bulletins.html

The automated systems do not have a forecaster check in place.

[Chacor]

Speaking of which, SAB have Megi back over water and at T5.5:

TXPN23 KNES 181529
SIMWIR

A. 15W (MEGI)

B. 18/1430Z

C. 16.9N

D. 119.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/W2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...MEGI LLC HAS JUST COME OFF LAND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE EYE EMERGED IN THE 1430Z SAT PIC BUT THE 1457Z PIC SHOWS IT REALLY
STARTING TO COME BACK. OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG WITH LG RING SURROUNDING
YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET = 6.0 AND PT = 5.5. FT BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/1252Z 16.7N 120.0E AMSU


...KIBLER

[HURAKAN]

Monica in 2006 is one of the few cyclones I remember reaching T8.0