ATL: ISAAC - Models

[stormandan28]

12z Fim Model

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?d ... 244&wjet=1

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.texasstormchasers.com/wp-con ... ck_gfs.png

[Cyclenall]

Wow....I thought I saw a west shift beginning. Here we go!!

Yep, when the 00z Euro came out I wondered if King Euro was setting the west trend and now with the 2nd run showing even more pronounced west movement, it only needs one more run of the same to confirm it for me. This outcome for the latest is exactly what I thought it would show if it continued.

The Euro run was extremely interesting, weak up until the Yucatan peninsula and then bombs in the Gulf. Its 1 mb lower than the last run (961 mb - maybe category 3) at 240 hours and takes an Ivan or Dennis path. I only consider after 240 hours for the Euro fantasy land as I believe there is still a tiny amount of skill during that long range. With that said, I would love to know for any mets that have the ultra-long range Euro available, where does it make landfall and how strong?

really warm..28C- 29C probably even some 30Cs somewhere in there....

Not just some 30ºC points, most of it is that I think with the surrounding areas around the former stated.

[OuterBanker]

Has recon been included in the latest models?

[weatherwindow]

FWIW, HPC day 6-7 positions for TD9 are just off the SW coast of FL heading generally NW to NNW. A more gradual turn in general being forecasted, but as several people have noted (myself included!) we are still 6-ish days out on this thing. Could be an Ivan, could be a Cleo, or could be something else entirely! Really too early to say!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter

FYI..Unfortunately the HPC tropical positions are not independently generated. They conference with TPC/NHC and the NHC inhouse extended forecast positions are proxied into the HPC products. Therefore, dont put any special weight on those numbers except that they reflect current NHC thinking in the extended realm and will change or not as their forecast thinking evolves....Rich

[Weatherboy1]

My only thought with the euro is that is probably UNDERestimating TD9's strength, and therefore seeing it move farther west ... just like the CMC is likely OVERestimating the speed at which TD9 will strengthn, and therefore predicting a much earlier hook to the north. I like a solution more in between at this time, though if the models ALL shift signficantly westward overnight, I will reconsider.

The one problem I have with an Ivan-like (2004) scenario is that he was much farther south in the eastern Caribbean. As you can see here, he was running along the 12-13N line before he began his gradual turn to the WNW then NW. That's one reason I think the models failed back then when they forecast a sharp turn and run up the spine of Florida. TD9 is along 15N already and isn't even in the Caribbean yet. So I think the chance of feeling any weakness earlier is higher.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2004atl.gif

Just my opinion ... no I am not a pro ... as always!

[Steve H.]

MEH..........


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 24 2012 - 12Z TUE AUG 28 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/21 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN SHARED MORE IN
COMMON WITH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAN THE GEFS
MEAN...THE SAID DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING ENOUGH SPREAD
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT TRUST THEIR DETAILS. EXTRAPOLATED THE
09Z/21 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR THE DEPICTION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DAYS 6 AND 7. WILL REFINE THE TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDAY COORDINATION CALL.


FINAL...

SAW NO COMPELLING REASONS IN THE 12Z/21 MODEL CYCLE TO STRAY FROM
THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF SPREAD WITH THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE. THE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN THE DAYS 6 AND 7 LOW PLACEMENT WAS
THE RESULT OF THE COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[weatherwindow]

http://www.texasstormchasers.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/aal09_2012082112_track_gfs.png

Do you think this might suggest a Florida landfall....LOL...I doubt that I have ever seen Florida so completely bracketed in 18 years..Rich

[HURRICANELONNY]

The models will change as recon gets more data in the coming days. I'm not to worried. I'll keep an eye on possible Isaac. I've seen way too many model changes in the past years. But you are right. That is one heck of a consesus. Also I've seen storms that were suppose to turn into a Hurricane disapate over the island mountains. That's why I'll just keep one eye on it for now.

[Bocadude85]

Another view of the 18z plots for Issac..

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

Im still confused on what exactly the OFCI plot is... if it is the NHC official track then why does it go out further then their current 5 day track?

[JPmia]

The models will change as recon gets more data in the coming days. I'm not to worried. I'll keep an eye on possible Isaac. I've seen way too many model changes in the past years. But you are right. That is one heck of a consesus. Also I've seen storms that were suppose to turn into a Hurricane disapate over the island mountains. That's why I'll just keep one eye on it for now.

Not only will the models change, but interaction with the mountains of Haiti/DR and eastern Cuba could really change things up.. ala Debby 2001 and Ernesto 2006.. we shall see.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[BigB0882]

I am barely knowledgable enough to even call myself a novice so please correct me if I am wrong but in the 240 hour map for the Euro is the ridge building in really strong? Might this possibly block any NE movement or even possibly continue pushing it more NW or NNW? Or can a hurricane of that strength push right on through? Or perhaps I just don't know how to read those darn maps. lol

[Stormcenter]

As in the past it's better to be in the bullseye now than 6 days from now. This may still end up never making it into the GOM.

[SouthFLTropics]

45 minutes till the 18z GFS...I can hardly wait to see where it takes us. Place your bets now. Does the GFS hold serve or does it follow the EURO???

SFT

[Bocadude85]

45 minutes till the 18z GFS...I can hardly wait to see where it takes us. Place your bets now. Does the GFS hold serve or does it follow the EURO???

SFT

Id be willing to bet it goes a little further west

[Riptide]

45 minutes till the 18z GFS...I can hardly wait to see where it takes us. Place your bets now. Does the GFS hold serve or does it follow the EURO???

SFT

Recurve, affecting no one. CMC scores a massive coup.

[SeminoleWind]

I think the GFS will hold its ground, ,,,for now.
TD 9 (Isaac) is slowing down some which may give it a better chance to strengthen some.JMO

[jlauderdal]

http://www.texasstormchasers.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/aal09_2012082112_track_gfs.png

Do you think this might suggest a Florida landfall....LOL...I doubt that I have ever seen Florida so completely bracketed in 18 years..Rich

hurricane debby about 10 years ago, had miami in its sites in 48 hours and hit hispanola, full dissipation....hurricane ike a few years ago had miami in its sites at about 72 h, kept going west, west then sw, missed us completely, those are two that come to mind, there have been more

[thetruesms]

Another view of the 18z plots for Issac..

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

Im still confused on what exactly the OFCI plot is... if it is the NHC official track then why does it go out further then their current 5 day track?

NHC is internally testing 7 day forecasts - OFCI is probably reflecting that

[Wx_Warrior]

Isaac, not "Issac"

Would be a major coup if CMC won this war. I never put much stock this far out in 6z/18z gfs.