Texas Spring 2016

[ColdFusion]

Good Afternoon all---here's a brief update on our thoughts. The special weather balloon that we sent up about an hour or so ago shows the presence of a very stout cap in place across the region. As a result of this strong cap, the development of storms west of the highway 281 corridor is expected to occur around 4-6 PM. These initial storms will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. These initial storms are expected to be in the form of discrete supercells and will likely pose the greatest tornado risk. These storms will gradually push eastward and based on the expectation of a strong cap may not impact the I-35 corridor until after 8 PM. By this time, the expectation will be that the storm mode will be in the form of a squall line, likely with some bowing segments. This means that the main hazards will likely shift to that of destructive winds and large hail. The tornado risk WILL remain, but as the storms congeal, it's more likely that the winds and hail will be the main threats. 10 PM and thereafter, the severe risk will continue east of I-35 with an isolated flash flood threat, IF storms slow down/train over the same area. Those are our latest thoughts and we will update you all as the event unfolds.

[cheezyWXguy]

Vis satellite that refreshes every minute. Pretty cool view:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/

[ColdFusion]

Staring to see some weak/moderate echos not too far to the west already...East of San Angelo extending north to near Wichita Fallas

[TarrantWx]

The cap is beginning to weaken out to the west of DFW

[Texas Snowman]

MD 457 graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...NW AND W-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261853Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RAPID INITIATION OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
WRN OK INTO NW AND W-CNTRL TX BY MID-AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ IS IN PLACE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW/W-CNTRL
TX...E OF A NEARLY STATIONARY AND WAVY DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM ALVA
OK SSWD TO SWEETWATER TX. ONE-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CINH CONTINUES TO
ERODE AS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S F. THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NM IS SPREADING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS ATTM. AS THIS INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE...RAPID
TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.

VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS SOON AFTER INITIATION WITH AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AS LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DATA ESTIMATE MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE. DESPITE
A SUBSTANTIAL MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER WINDS...A
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AND BE MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY
LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN EVOLVE. EVENTUAL
CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND
NW/W-CNTRL TX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 36989668 33879642 32069780 31189955 30840023 31050069
31570087 35169984 36369923 36999865 36989668

[Texas Snowman]

@severestudios - PDS Tornado Watch for Oklahoma & Texas. @NWSSPC says several tornadoes, a few intense likely, hail to 4", wind to 80

[Tireman4]

Here....we....go....launch time in about 3-4 hours...

[Texas Snowman]

Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 109

WW0109 Radar
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 230 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4
INCHES IN DIAMETER EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER WESTERN PART OF WATCH...INCLUDING A FEW
STRONG SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO BROKEN LINES AND
CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND.. AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY
MOVE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...WW 107...WW 108...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...CORFIDI

[Texas Snowman]

@StephanieAbrams -- PDS=Particularly Dangerous Situation only 3% of tornado watches are PDS

[Yukon Cornelius]

Severe storm warnings and alerts don't ever really seem to bother me but I don't know if it's from all the hype with this particular one but this looming storm threat is starting to worry me quite a bit, especially since all the forecasts seem to be trending worse and stronger.

[TheProfessor]

You don't see Parameters this high usually.

photo hosting

[ColdFusion]

Lewisville ISD just cancelled all after school activities for today...

[Texas Snowman]

@UofOklahoma -- OU Alert: Classes, exams, and evening activities beginning at 4:15 p.m. or later today, April 26th, on the OU Norman campus are canceled.

[lukem]

Pouring with hail in Midland right now. I don't think we were supposed to see anything today. Not sure what that means.

[Texas Snowman]

Already a wall cloud being observed on storm in NW Oklahoma...

[gboudx]

From Jeff:

This is a very dangerous situation

Violent long tracked tornadoes increasingly likely over NC TX this afternoon into the evening.

Surface analysis shows dry line starting to surge into WC TX with air mass east of the dryline becoming extremely unstable with CAPE values of 3500-4500 J/kg. Strong large scale ascent clearly seen ejecting out of NM toward the dryline will help to erode the remaining capping in place over and W of the I-35 corridor over the next few hours. Horizontal roll clouds noted in satellite imagery can be a precursor of favorable low level shear values.

Expect the cap to be broken shortly and intense thunderstorm development to ensue along the eastern boundary of PDS tornado watch area. Storms will become supercells with long tracked intense tornado potential and baseball or greater size hail threat.

Supercells over time may grow into a squall line or MCS and move generally E to ENE into E TX…possibly impacting areas north of I-10 early Wednesday morning. Capping continues to look impressive over SE TX, which should generally keep most storms just north of our region.

[Texas Snowman]

Storm SW of Enid, Oklahoma has hook appendage and some low level rotation.

Could be a long evening ahead north of the Red River.

[Texas Snowman]

@severestudios -- 1st Tornado Warning of the day southwest of Wichita, Kansas near Caldwell. Storm moving NE. severestudios.com

[Tireman4]

Chasers in Kansas....

https://www.facebook.com/NZPChasers/

[gpsnowman]

Ominous feeling right now just waiting. By the way, where in the world are Portastorm and wxman57?