ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

I just got back from the airport to check on the GFS and I have to say... Just. WOW.

Not only does it go below 900mb, it actually rams through the Ridge up towards a landmass.

Holy cow!

True, and true, but she also defies that ridge for no reason. It should have trended west or wnw cause of that strong ridge but decided to stil curve despite.

[meriland29]

Euro initialized..

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am up for the EURO...why?!

Oh yeah...I remember now.

[meriland29]

I am up for the EURO...why?!

Oh yeah...I remember now.

Cause we a intrigued and confused..

[AutoPenalti]

I am up for the EURO...why?!

Oh yeah...I remember now.

Currently eating pistachios because I want to see all physics defied an- oh wait

[Blinhart]

Euro initialized..

And initialized her 9 mb too high. Most likely she mostly has a lower pressure now, she was at 999 3 hours ago, I wouldn't be surprised if by the time the next advisory comes out she is a hurricane with a pressure around 995.

[toad strangler]

0z GFS fantasy range solution makes no sense.

[meriland29]

[AutoPenalti]

Euro initialized Irma as a 1008 low. Irma is currently a 999mb TS.

What. the. heck.

[meriland29]

48

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ukmet is looking flatter and much too close, too the islands.

[AdamFirst]

Isn't the pressure shown on these model runs not exactly the right pressure? I keep hearing mentions of the "high resolution" EURO which shows the actual pressure on initialization.

[AutoPenalti]

That little cut-off low is gone.

[meriland29]

well I can give you the 500mb but literally anyway you slice it, the mb are still on the low end..

[AutoPenalti]

72 hrs.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That little cutoff as you put it is the reason for the weakness and the lift GFS shows.

[Sciencerocks]

96 hours is about a degree further westward and about 18 mb stronger.

[RL3AO]

A major hurricane will be steered by more than the 500 mb winds. It'll be steered by the mean flow through most of the atmosphere. Once a hurricane is that strong, it gets tough to completely subtract out the vortex to get the background flow. We can try with Levi's area sounding. It shows the hurricane would move to the WNW or NW...exactly like the model showed. The GFS didn't break physics.

[meriland29]

[wxmann_91]

Ignoring the exact track of the hurricane for a moment, the Euro did trend stronger with the ULL in front of future Irma, closer to the GFS. Closed height contours at H5 at hr 96 vs open in last night's run.