Texas Fall 2019

[rwfromkansas]

Looked out the window and it was a drizzle flizzard effectively.

My wife had to turn on the heater today since the house was 66 this morning.

[Brent]

Looks like DFW definitely had a record lowest max i see nothing over 49. Record was 52 in 1957

Remember those 90s when we started the month

Also had almost an inch and a half in the gauge earlier

[Ntxw]

Looks like DFW definitely had a record lowest max i see nothing over 49. Record was 52 in 1957

Remember those 90s when we started the month

Also had almost an inch and a half in the gauge earlier

Halloween trough is deeper. 5-10F colder air mass. GFS has now caught up to that reality. Freeze coming outside inner DFW urban areas, 32-35F in the cities.

[Brent]

Pre-Halloween storm

similar to the last storm, there is a big difference in the GFS vs the Euro/CMC(as you'll recall the slower solutions won out as evidenced by the weather today)

GFS is progressive and dry by Halloween

Wednesday is looking very wet either way maybe not as cold as it was(highs in the 60s)

the CMC and the Euro would be wet at least part of Halloween, temps continue to look like they'll be very cold and near cold record setting with highs in the 40s either way with a possible freeze either Thursday or Friday morning depending on the solution

[TheProfessor]

Getting absolutely dumped on right now. All I can say is I would love for one of these bit time Gulf Lows to occur in the winter. Thunderstorms for me and a mega snowstorm for someone in the Midwest/Mid Atlantic. Those are always fun to watch, even from afar.

[gpsnowman]

48F and drizzling in the afternoon at DFW airport. Feels like December . Another cold day coming later next week on Halloween.

Warmest day this week is a balmy 75F on Sunday. We have come down a long way from the first half of the month.

It was 97 degrees 2 weeks ago. Ahhh what great memories. NOT!!!! Bring on the rain and cold this fall season. Winter will be here before you know it. An early season hunch says snow will happen this year.

Its early but you cant help be encouraged by how early the snow is starting upstream

Exactly. The snow in Canada, the Rockies and most recently in Kansas and Amarillo only boosts my confidence in our chances down here. It is still early and I get it but the Halloween front is bringing some real cold in the west. Denver could have several days below freezing. Hopefully the pattern of a couple fronts a week can continue bringing rain and cold. Encouraging to say the least.

[Portastorm]

Halloween forecast looking chilly for Austin with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. As I told Haris yesterday, if that verifies it would be the chilliest Halloween since 1993. I'm also wondering if Captin Crunch's favorite analogy connecting our Halloween weather to our winter will verify. Questions, questions ... hmmm.

[Ntxw]

After yesterday's anomalous cold day, DFW has now dived to +0.8F from normal. Think about that and the +6F and more departure to start the month. The flip was hard and tugged it all the way down from the sky. And now with a chilly Halloween week on tap, the airport is all but guaranteed a colder than normal October as a whole. That is astonishing and one of the biggest monthly 'reversals' in recent memory.

[TheProfessor]

Lost power for 9 hours. Was a rough night lol.

[Haris]

Looks like a solid 1-2” for a good chunk of the state mid week. Classic overrunning pattern!

Let’s stack up on these rain totals before we head into winter which isn’t really our rainy season.

[Ntxw]

The ensembles and OP guidance are showing anomalous raised heights over Alaska into the start of November. What does this mean? Even colder air may move down after Halloween, trajectory too far out yet determine.

In short...another -EPO blast may be lurking.

[Brent]

[CaptinCrunch]

Halloween analogy is looking very good for a colder winter with average precipitation.

ENSO Neutral is also looking good for a colder winter with average precipitation.

While the NWS outlook is decent, I understand they are assuming climatological history will be a factor in our up coming winter. I'm going against it with temperatures at or just below normal and average precipitation chances.

There has been a lot of early snowfall in the NW US, Northern Rockies, and Central Alaska which boads well for cold airmasses making it into the southern US. I think what we saw late last week, this weekend and coming Monday night through Halloween will be the over all pattern the remainder of Fall and be the dominant factor much of this winter with a back and forth battle of cold and warm air masse that create great opportunities for precipitation be it rain, sleet or snow.

[BTAYLOR5021]

After doing my research. 65-70% of DFW (neutral) winters has had more artic outbreaks/freezes. The precip has been avg to below avg. Nonetheless I'm loving this weeks forecasts. 50's for highs and 30's for lows from Tuesday-Sat. Hope this a sign of what's to come this fall/winter. Please comment and advise if Dfw has a good chance of a 1st season freeze this week. Lows will range from 32-36 wed and Thursday morning. Dfw is well overdue for a bitter cold snowy winter similar to the 60's 70's and 80's.

[Tejas89]

DFW generally needs 2 things to happen for a good winter event, and one of those has gotten more rare.

Can't blame FWD for that prediction given 4 winters in a row without much of anything.

[gpsnowman]

Halloween analogy is looking very good for a colder winter with average precipitation.

ENSO Neutral is also looking good for a colder winter with average precipitation.

While the NWS outlook is decent, I understand they are assuming climatological history will be a factor in our up coming winter. I'm going against it with temperatures at or just below normal and average precipitation chances.

There has been a lot of early snowfall in the NW US, Northern Rockies, and Central Alaska which boads well for cold airmasses making it into the southern US. I think what we saw late last week, this weekend and coming Monday night through Halloween will be the over all pattern the remainder of Fall and be the dominant factor much of this winter with a back and forth battle of cold and warm air masse that create great opportunities for precipitation be it rain, sleet or snow.

I hope you are correct CaptinCrunch. I am ok with normal temps as long as we get a couple strong arctic blasts to even out the averages. So far I am liking the moisture return after these fronts. This is what has been lacking the last few years. Dry fronts are good for some cold but that is about it. Take today for example; cloudy and humid conditions which should lead to some nice rain totals the next couple days preceding the next fronts. It is ok to have warm and humid temps in winter if followed by a system with arctic cold and moisture to work with. We need the warmer, moist return flow. Will it continue the rest of fall and winter? Sure hope so!!! Hope this makes sense.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Chilly day today. Sitting in the 40s with a cold north wind.

[dhweather]

It's only 348 hours out, so its probably wrong.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019101600/gfs_T2m_scus_59.png

Ugh, I didn't save this somewhere!

HAIL THE GFS!!! It had a major cold outbreak for Halloween, and guess what's happening.

[dhweather]

Oh GFS dont worry it keeps with tradition missing DFW

https://i.ibb.co/LSrX6Js/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-54.png

Well, it's kinda close, considering it was 300+ hours out.

[rwfromkansas]

Wish it would get about 2-3 degrees cooler Friday morning so we could have an early first freeze. It seems that often the first freeze doesn't take in my experience, so it wouldn't surprise me if temps Friday morning are a few degrees warmer than forecast, but this is just from experience and not always true. If the air is cold enough, it will freeze.