2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[supercane4867]

GFS fantasy land

[AutoPenalti]

There’s a signal for sure, we’ll see if it continues at 12z

[TallyTracker]

GFS fantasy land

https://i.imgur.com/nTnLfpI.png

That would be an interesting situation to have two separate cyclones in the northwest Caribbean at the same time. Recon could check two storms for the price of one flight!

[ScottNAtlanta]

The MJO will be in a favorable position for that part of the basin per most of the forecasts.

[aspen]

There’s a signal for sure, we’ll see if it continues at 12z

It continues at 12z.

The first signs of something trying to develop appear on August 16th, roughly 290-300 hours out. This is after the suppressive CCKW moves out of the basin. By the end of the run, the GFS has a hurricane passing Cuba and going into the Gulf.

[Fancy1001]

There’s a signal for sure, we’ll see if it continues at 12z

It continues at 12z.

The first signs of something trying to develop appear on August 16th, roughly 290-300 hours out. This is after the suppressive CCKW moves out of the basin. By the end of the run, the GFS has a hurricane passing Cuba and going into the Gulf.

Looks a little like 2004 Charley.

[Cpv17]

There’s a signal for sure, we’ll see if it continues at 12z

It continues at 12z.

The first signs of something trying to develop appear on August 16th, roughly 290-300 hours out. This is after the suppressive CCKW moves out of the basin. By the end of the run, the GFS has a hurricane passing Cuba and going into the Gulf.

Check out the Para as well.

[Cpv17]

Look at the 12z Euro and 12z GFS 850 mb vorticity map at hour 240. They both look pretty similar.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC also has something there in the same time frame.

[CyclonicFury]

12z EPS starting to pick up on something in the MDR at Day 10. Not a particularly strong signal for now, but something to watch since EPS sniffed out Isaias well.

[BYG Jacob]

August is a little late for a CAG isn't it/

[Hurricaneman]

12z EPS starting to pick up on something in the MDR at Day 10. Not a particularly strong signal for now, but something to watch since EPS sniffed out Isaias well.
https://i.imgur.com/zxHbsGc_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

I think that’s what the GFS is developing in the western Caribbean, may need to keep watch of this beyond day 10

[CyclonicFury]

August is a little late for a CAG isn't it/

The GFS seems to have a bias of negative VP200 anomalies (rising motion) over Central America, leading to many spurious CAG-like features on the model in the long range and many western Caribbean ghost storms. CAGs have only been observed to form in May-June and September-November.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z EPS starting to pick up on something in the MDR at Day 10. Not a particularly strong signal for now, but something to watch since EPS sniffed out Isaias well.
https://i.imgur.com/zxHbsGc_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

The fact that it’s picking it up at all within 10 days seems like a decent signal to me. The gfs doesn’t really do anything with it until a few days later when it gets to the western caribbean, so this almost seems more aggressive to me.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 18z GFS continues the trend of wanting to spin something up in the Western Caribbean at around Sunday, August 16th.

[toad strangler]

The 18z GFS continues the trend of wanting to spin something up in the Western Caribbean at around Sunday, August 16th.

It's a signal that's moving up in time so yeah, there is that.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 18z GFS continues the trend of wanting to spin something up in the Western Caribbean at around Sunday, August 16th.

It's a signal that's moving up in time so yeah, there is that.

Getting stronger with each run too. 947 in the southern gulf at the end of this run

[Kingarabian]

The 00z Euro will be important to see if the time frame gets closer or not and to increase the odds of this NOT being a ghost system.
18z GFS:
Hour 276:


Ends like this:

[toad strangler]

The 00z Euro will be important to see if the time frame gets closer or not and to increase the odds of this NOT being a ghost system.
18z GFS:
Hour 276:
https://i.imgur.com/Cahtp8m.png

Ends like this:
https://i.imgur.com/IajTKYC.png

Well the GFS is right on the doorstep of the Euro's reach but I don't know how important it is at 0z tonight. Definitely through runs later tomorrow though should the GFS keep stepping up.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 00z Euro will be important to see if the time frame gets closer or not and to increase the odds of this NOT being a ghost system.
18z GFS:
Hour 276:
https://i.imgur.com/Cahtp8m.png

Ends like this:
https://i.imgur.com/IajTKYC.png

Well the GFS is right on the doorstep of the Euro's reach but I don't know how important it is at 0z tonight. Definitely through runs later tomorrow though should the GFS keep stepping up.

Agreed. By Thursday or Friday we should really start to see if the Euro begins to pick up on it. The question is, does this form from what the CMC is trying to spin up in the MDR or is this a separate system entirely?