ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I love how many people were writing off Marco lastnight. Now that it got named and is intensifying all eyes are on it. Another interesting thing is Marco isn't going to have land interaction with the Yukatan anymore...it's in a favorable environment currently but that's going to change in the coming days until it gets closer to the coast. Wondering how strong it can stay because this will end up effecting Laura in some way.

Another thing too now that Marco is stronger it has a higher chance of effecting more parts of the gulf coast than it did before since stronger storms move more poleward.

Also wondering if the small size of Marco was part of why models didn't see this intensification?

Writing it off? I simply cannot phathom people writing this cycone off. Really? This is too incredulous to warrant any sensible response to this.

[SoupBone]

Is Marco feeling the effects of that trough, he looks pretty flat on his western side.

[Visioen]

I love how many people were writing off Marco lastnight. Now that it got named and is intensifying all eyes are on it. Another interesting thing is Marco isn't going to have land interaction with the Yukatan anymore...it's in a favorable environment currently but that's going to change in the coming days until it gets closer to the coast. Wondering how strong it can stay because this will end up effecting Laura in some way.

Another thing too now that Marco is stronger it has a higher chance of effecting more parts of the gulf coast than it did before since stronger storms move more poleward.

Also wondering if the small size of Marco was part of why models didn't see this intensification?

I was pretty bullish, but that's not the point.
I love how now it's got named and is intensifying people are coming out of the woodwork to talk about "how others were writing it off and suddenly all eyes are on this" in their very first post on this thread.

[GCANE]

Damnit G. The other G word. I stayed up past 2 and set the alarm to get up at 6:15 and go to the store and get a few more cases of water, booze and red bulls. Plan was to crash for 3-4 more hours. Instead I made a cup of coffee. haha No sleep during tropical threats for weather geeks :/

What's your plans Steve?

I'm playing everything by ear. We have enough of everything except food and beer (both of which I'll get if it looks like it might be necessary) to ride out whatever might come this way. I wanted to beat any store rush, and so now we have 7 cases of spring water and a couple handles of Beam. We should be good there, so basically nothing much to do but watch and track. Luckily our apartment is 15' up, so short of a cataclysmic meteor-driven tidal wave, I don't think we could ever flood (I have a parking pass to a downtown garage I can move cars to if necessary). Even in Katrina I think it settled around 5-6' where I live now.

One thought I had if it looked like the HWRF was going to be right about Laura, was to go to my condo in Pensacola (2nd story and 67 feet above sea level there) for the middle-end of the week and ride out Laura there. Unfortunately my employer decided that full-time/most-time remote ends this weekend meaning I have to start going to work again on Monday. I'll be tuned in all day and tonight, and if anything warrants me switching directors or having to act on an emergency, I'll do that. Otherwise, like I said, I'm just going to wait and see.

Stay safe my Friend

[mitchell]

look at all the north adjustments.. nhc must really dislike this storm lol

it just does not want to follow the rules..

Yeah...its currently outside the cone from less than 24 hours ago, unless I'm mistaken.

[MississippiWx]

My guess is Marco has leveled off for now. Visible looks a little more ragged than earlier. These small systems are so susceptible to the smallest change in environment. HH are inbound for another pass. We will see.

[northjaxpro]

I love how many people were writing off Marco lastnight. Now that it got named and is intensifying all eyes are on it. Another interesting thing is Marco isn't going to have land interaction with the Yukatan anymore...it's in a favorable environment currently but that's going to change in the coming days until it gets closer to the coast. Wondering how strong it can stay because this will end up effecting Laura in some way.

Another thing too now that Marco is stronger it has a higher chance of effecting more parts of the gulf coast than it did before since stronger storms move more poleward.

Also wondering if the small size of Marco was part of why models didn't see this intensification?

I was pretty bullish, but that's not the point.
I love how now it's got named and is intensifying people are coming out of the woodwork to talk about "how others were writing it off and suddenly all eyes are on this" in their very first post on this thread.

You referring to me? I posted a few times on this thead yesterday monitoring Marco and commented on the potential.Binary interation with Laura on yesterday.

My longtime rule of thumb as an analyst in forecasting and in weather in general: NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER, especially with systems in the tropics!!

[Visioen]

I love how many people were writing off Marco lastnight. Now that it got named and is intensifying all eyes are on it. Another interesting thing is Marco isn't going to have land interaction with the Yukatan anymore...it's in a favorable environment currently but that's going to change in the coming days until it gets closer to the coast. Wondering how strong it can stay because this will end up effecting Laura in some way.

Another thing too now that Marco is stronger it has a higher chance of effecting more parts of the gulf coast than it did before since stronger storms move more poleward.

Also wondering if the small size of Marco was part of why models didn't see this intensification?

I was pretty bullish, but that's not the point.
I love how now it's got named and is intensifying people are coming out of the woodwork to talk about "how others were writing it off and suddenly all eyes are on this" in their very first post on this thread.

You referring to me? I posted a few times on this thead yesterday monitoring Marco and commented on the potential.Binary interation with Laura on yesterday.

My longtime rule of thumb as an analyst in forecasting and in weather in general: NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER, especialky with systems in the tropics!!

No Jax I wasn't talking about you.
I was just poking some fun at TheDreamTraveler.

[northjaxpro]

I was pretty bullish, but that's not the point.
I love how now it's got named and is intensifying people are coming out of the woodwork to talk about "how others were writing it off and suddenly all eyes are on this" in their very first post on this thread.

You referring to me? I posted a few times on this thead yesterday monitoring Marco and commented on the potential.Binary interation with Laura on yesterday.

My longtime rule of thumb as an analyst in forecasting and in weather in general: NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER, especialky with systems in the tropics!!

No Jax I wasn't talking about you.
I was just poking some fun at TheDreamTraveler.

OK. Sorry for the confusion

[eastcoastFL]

Landfall just east of NOLA

[wx98]

My guess is Marco has leveled off for now. Visible looks a little more ragged than earlier. These small systems are so susceptible to the smallest change in environment. HH are inbound for another pass. We will see.

I agree here. It does look a little ragged lately but we will know about the NE quad in a few minutes.

[Kazmit]

Woah, 67kt FL winds just found.

[wx98]

It looks like the center is so small recon is having trouble making a clean pass straight through.

[GCANE]

Still 6 nm wide eye
Rain rate ~55 mm/hr
Flight level winds a bit lower then surface indicating strong downdraft

[wx98]

By that pass a 65-70 mph TS is justified. Haven’t seen anything conclusive for a hurricane yet.

[GCANE]

CoC in 3500 CAPE.
Good infeed of unstable air from the SE.
Lower CAPE to the NE may be inhibiting rapid strengthening at the moment.
NE Yucatan forming cumulus indicating development of unstable air which appears to be another infeed into the CoC.
Solar heating of the ground should create popup thunderstorms later today which would likely allow their debris to flow into the CoC tonight and help to moisten the mid-levels.

[wxman57]

Small storms like Marco tend to strengthen very rapidly but they weaken just as rapidly when that enhanced outflow from the trof turns into strong wind shear. Unless that shear does its job and starts weakening Marco by tonight/tomorrow morning, we could see a sunrise landfall in SE LA. We've known that a stronger storm goes north, a weaker one goes west to TX (or MX). I'm betting on shear hitting Marco harder than NHC track indicates. It may have only a short life as a hurricane. I'm fine with a LA landfall. Not forecasting that yet, though. Freeport, TX, currently. May not be much of it left by then, though.

[aspen]

A faint eye is appearing in visible satellite imagery. As recon suggests, this is pretty close to hurricane intensity, but not quite yet.

[3090]

Still 6 nm wide eye
Rain rate ~55 mm/hr
Flight level winds a bit lower then surface indicating strong downdraft

https://i.imgur.com/Z7wnzqX.png

https://i.imgur.com/Oo2ZOJH.png

https://i.imgur.com/PvLgNDi.png

And maybe a slight change to possibly a NNW motion.

[MississippiWx]

By that pass a 65-70 mph TS is justified. Haven’t seen anything conclusive for a hurricane yet.

They still didn’t sample the NE quad.