ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[nativefloridian]

Maybe it's my eyes from looking at so many satellite loops, but it appears Fred is expanding his convection field as he's crossing the D.R. Can't wait to see how he looks tomorrow morning!

[Chemmers]

Look very similar to Laura when it went across Cuba, wondering if Fred will hold up the same?

[tolakram]

Saved Upper level WV loop. How fast will the upper low over Florida retreat / wash out?

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1425566924168179717

[Blown Away]

I can’t post satellite link. On visible is that the LLC about to exit NW Haiti??

Maybe somebody could post the last few visible frames before it gets dark, you can see a naked circulation shooting off the NW Haiti coast. I think it is.

[Jr0d]

I can’t post satellite link. On visible is that the LLC about to exit NW Haiti??

Visible:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Nighttime micro physics:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Important bookmarks for hurricane season!

The NE side is over water but void of convection, while the other half over land is going strong.

Looks like Fred will survive Hispaniola but will struggle until Friday, I'm my amateur opinion.

However there is a chance Fred could find favorable conditions Friday and pull itself together quickly.

[Woofde]

I can’t post satellite link. On visible is that the LLC about to exit NW Haiti??

Maybe somebody could post the last few visible frames before it gets dark, you can see a naked circulation shooting off the NW Haiti coast. I think it is.

It does have quite a bit of spin. If it is the LLC then Fred is very discoupled right now.

[Nimbus]

I can’t post satellite link. On visible is that the LLC about to exit NW Haiti??

Maybe somebody could post the last few visible frames before it gets dark, you can see a naked circulation shooting off the NW Haiti coast. I think it is.

Wind out of the west near Manzanillo bay but that may be a naked swirl that doesn't pick up any convection if it is moving too fast.

[Woofde]

Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.

[toad strangler]

Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.

Land is one thing. Ten thousand foot tall mountains are another ...

[aspen]

Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.

Looks like that convection is generated by friction with the tallest mountains of Hispaniola. I’m wondering if those bursts might try to drag whatever circulation is left further south.

[tropicwatch]

Is Kermit doing a high altitude flight? I didn't see one scheduled for today. Currently flying around Hispaniola at approximately 24,500ft.

[psyclone]

Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.

Land is one thing. Ten thousand foot tall mountains are another ...

Ten thousand foot mountains are probably a net convective benefit owing to orographic processes. If anything after it emerges over water it will have disruptive downsloping to contend with. We may revert back to a PTC, maintain TC designation just for continuity purposes...or perhaps we need a new category: PNS...
Potential naked swirl. All kidding aside, any disturbance emerging over water in August is worth monitoring as things can change fast..

[toad strangler]

Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.

Land is one thing. Ten thousand foot tall mountains are another ...

Ten thousand foot mountains are probably a net convective benefit owing to orographic processes. If anything after it emerges over water it will have disruptive downsloping to contend with. We may revert back to a PTC, maintain TC designation just for continuity purposes...or perhaps we need a new category: PNS...
Potential naked swirl. All kidding aside, any disturbance emerging over water in August is worth monitoring as things can change fast..

My posting history has shown that I'm a proponent of the idea that weaker storms do better traversing the Shredder Islands. THat said, this particular angle into Hispaniola is not what you want to see any system hit if you are looking for survival. We'll see though .... and ya, the date on the calendar does demand any disturbance in this area respect.

[TallyTracker]

I found this tool on accuweather that appears to take the wind direction data over Hispaniola. If it’s accurate, than I notice two things. First, Fred may already be an open wave as the west winds are becoming scarce. Second, the center or what’s left of it appears to be near Comendador on the Haiti border.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/do/national/wind-flow

[tropicwatch]

Is Kermit doing a high altitude flight? I didn't see one scheduled for today. Currently flying around Hispaniola at approximately 24,500ft.

Might be a regular mission, Kermit is descending now.

[Woofde]

According to the NHC Fred is now depressed. We wait to see if he will recover.

[toad strangler]

There are TWO levels of the letter "D" in the tropical totem pole.

Depression and DIssipated

The latter is just as likely right now.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Never ceases to amaze me the havoc those mountains can wreak on a tropical cyclone

Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

[tropicwatch]

No surprises here, this was forecast to happen by the NHC.