Texas Spring 2022

[Ralph's Weather]

Isolated freeze across East Texas with widespread mid to upper 30s this morning.

[Iceresistance]

Managed to fall to 32°F this morning

[rwfromkansas]

I was at 39 at 7:15, 57 now. Fast warm-up.

[Brent]

30 at the airport but already up to 56

[Iceresistance]

The 12z NAM has Isolated development in Central Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, could be a sneaky event

[Ntxw]

From WPC. The forecast for most outside of the eastern edges the next 7 days <0.75". The severe weather has a good ceiling but it also has a high bust potential outside of the Ozarks. It is a multi-day set up with various impulses coming through so we'll have to look at conditions daily.

[ElectricStorm]

12z NAM is a cap bust.

That being said, I think that's a common bias in the NAM, although I don't usually follow it since it's generally not great. We'll see what the CAMs show tomorrow, but even they're not great until the day before sometimes even the day of.

Lots of possibilities here.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM is a cap bust.

That being said, I think that's a common bias in the NAM, although I don't usually follow it since it's generally not great. We'll see what the CAMs show tomorrow, but even they're not great until the day before sometimes even the day of.

Lots of possibilities here.

You talking 12k or 3k? 12k I agree but the 3k shows initiation at 7pm Monday on the dryline. With cape as high as 4600, that cap is toast, at least south of the red river. Gonna have to wait for the 18z to see far enough into how the rest of the evening goes

[ElectricStorm]

12z NAM is a cap bust.

That being said, I think that's a common bias in the NAM, although I don't usually follow it since it's generally not great. We'll see what the CAMs show tomorrow, but even they're not great until the day before sometimes even the day of.

Lots of possibilities here.

You talking 12k or 3k? 12k I agree but the 3k shows initiation at 7pm Monday on the dryline. With cape as high as 4600, that cap is toast, at least south of the red river. Gonna have to wait for the 18z to see far enough into how the rest of the evening goes

12k sorry should have specified. I will add though that if that cap were to break, it would be absolutely explosive. We're probably looking at a fine line here between nothing and a major event

[HockeyTx82]

12z NAM is a cap bust.

That being said, I think that's a common bias in the NAM, although I don't usually follow it since it's generally not great. We'll see what the CAMs show tomorrow, but even they're not great until the day before sometimes even the day of.

Lots of possibilities here.

You talking 12k or 3k? 12k I agree but the 3k shows initiation at 7pm Monday on the dryline. With cape as high as 4600, that cap is toast, at least south of the red river. Gonna have to wait for the 18z to see far enough into how the rest of the evening goes

12k sorry should have specified. I will add though that if that cap were to break, it would be absolutely explosive. We're probably looking at a fine line here between nothing and a major event

Is this the end of time? I mean all this talk has me wondering.

[Iceresistance]

You talking 12k or 3k? 12k I agree but the 3k shows initiation at 7pm Monday on the dryline. With cape as high as 4600, that cap is toast, at least south of the red river. Gonna have to wait for the 18z to see far enough into how the rest of the evening goes

12k sorry should have specified. I will add though that if that cap were to break, it would be absolutely explosive. We're probably looking at a fine line here between nothing and a major event

Is this the end of time? I mean all this talk has me wondering.

No, they were talking about the NAM model, the 12k is different than the 3k

[bubba hotep]

From WPC. The forecast for most outside of the eastern edges the next 7 days <0.75". The severe weather has a good ceiling but it also has a high bust potential outside of the Ozarks. It is a multi-day set up with various impulses coming through so we'll have to look at conditions daily.

https://i.imgur.com/fC4ffY0.gif

Rather disappointing but not surprising. The H5 flow looks to end up much more progressive than what models were showing last week when people were talking "historic" multi day outbreak. Rainfall totals will depend on daily convective evolution but not seeing any signs of large rain producing MCS being triggered by this setup for Texas.

[Cpv17]

From WPC. The forecast for most outside of the eastern edges the next 7 days <0.75". The severe weather has a good ceiling but it also has a high bust potential outside of the Ozarks. It is a multi-day set up with various impulses coming through so we'll have to look at conditions daily.

https://i.imgur.com/fC4ffY0.gif

Rather disappointing but not surprising. The H5 flow looks to end up much more progressive than what models were showing last week when people were talking "historic" multi day outbreak. Rainfall totals will depend on daily convective evolution but not seeing any signs of large rain producing MCS being triggered by this setup for Texas.

These systems coming out are ejecting way too far north for most of Texas to cash in. Especially my area.

[Ntxw]

I know I'm beating a dead horse but...strong SOI rise signals below normal period of precipitation is ahead. Just as very negative crashes signals wet periods, the opposite is also true.

[Iceresistance]

I know I'm beating a dead horse but...strong SOI rise signals below normal period of precipitation is ahead. Just as very negative crashes signals wet periods, the opposite is also true.

https://i.imgur.com/BcrkdR2.png

The Surface Pressure in Tahiti has really increased lately, only a sudden crash of the surface pressure & SOI will reverse this trend.

(And also, where's the site that features it? I would like to track it myself.)

[Ntxw]

I know I'm beating a dead horse but...strong SOI rise signals below normal period of precipitation is ahead. Just as very negative crashes signals wet periods, the opposite is also true.

https://i.imgur.com/BcrkdR2.png

The Surface Pressure in Tahiti has really increased lately, only a sudden crash of the surface pressure & SOI will reverse this trend.

(And also, where's the site that features it? I would like to track it myself.)

Here you go! (Australia meteorology.) Great source for MJO data as well at the BOM meteorology page.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[South Texas Storms]

Big fire ongoing in northern Bexar county this evening. Droughts suck.

[vbhoutex]

Big fire ongoing in northern Bexar county this evening. Droughts suck.

Yes they do!! I flew from Harlengen to Houston today. I SAW NO GREEN VEGETATION until we were approaching the far Western outskirts of the Houston metro area! Most of the lakes, reservoirs and even some obvious rivers and/or creeks were obviously low and/or dried out! Really brought home how bad the drought in Texas is!!

[ElectricStorm]

Most models continue to show very strong capping on Tuesday. However, they're also showing very favorable parameters if any storm is able to break the cap and take advantage of it. Since the SPC has a 30% area up, they seem to be pretty confident that there will be at least a few storms that can break it, despite the models not really showing it right now. I trust the SPC way more than the models, so unless they end up drastically changing their outlooks, I think we'll be looking at some sort of isolated supercell development along the dryline Tuesday. There may not be a whole lot of storms, but the ones that do form could be explosive, with very large hail and tornadoes likely. Still 4 days out so a lot can (and will) change.

Unfortunately from a rain perspective, this isn't looking very good. The best scenario for rain would be a linear event/MCS, but that doesn't appear to be the case here. There may be another potential system coming through around a week from now, maybe we can get some rain then.

[cheezyWXguy]

Most models continue to show very strong capping on Tuesday. However, they're also showing very favorable parameters if any storm is able to break the cap and take advantage of it. Since the SPC has a 30% area up, they seem to be pretty confident that there will be at least a few storms that can break it, despite the models not really showing it right now. I trust the SPC way more than the models, so unless they end up drastically changing their outlooks, I think we'll be looking at some sort of isolated supercell development along the dryline Tuesday. There may not be a whole lot of storms, but the ones that do form could be explosive, with very large hail and tornadoes likely. Still 4 days out so a lot can (and will) change.

Unfortunately from a rain perspective, this isn't looking very good. The best scenario for rain would be a linear event/MCS, but that doesn't appear to be the case here. There may be another potential system coming through around a week from now, maybe we can get some rain then.

Yeah with that much fuel in the atmosphere it’s hard to believe nothing will pop in ok or tx on Monday or Tuesday. From what I’ve seen, the models tend to underdo coverage this far out when capping is a factor