Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

I'm looking at this and it looks subtropical now. I'd reclassify this as a 50-55 kt subtropical storm...I think the winds are holding up still.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 271832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070927 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070927 1800 070928 0600 070928 1800 070929 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 47.9W 15.4N 50.8W 16.8N 53.6W 17.6N 55.6W
BAMD 14.2N 47.9W 15.8N 49.2W 17.4N 50.2W 18.9N 50.8W
BAMM 14.2N 47.9W 15.2N 50.1W 16.3N 52.0W 17.2N 53.4W
LBAR 14.2N 47.9W 15.5N 49.5W 16.6N 51.0W 17.7N 52.3W
SHIP 50KTS 47KTS 45KTS 45KTS
DSHP 50KTS 47KTS 45KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070929 1800 070930 1800 071001 1800 071002 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 57.3W 19.4N 59.9W 20.1N 61.6W 20.3N 63.0W
BAMD 20.3N 51.4W 23.4N 52.9W 26.5N 55.0W 28.8N 55.8W
BAMM 18.0N 54.5W 19.3N 56.0W 20.4N 57.1W 21.0N 57.8W
LBAR 18.6N 53.5W 20.6N 54.8W 22.5N 55.7W 23.6N 55.9W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 56KTS 62KTS
DSHP 44KTS 48KTS 56KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 47.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 46.1W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 43.6W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 80NM

50kts

Notice that SHIP slowly increases the intensity after Karen passes the shear zone.

[KWT]

Yeah thats interesting given thats what the other models are doing as well, if Karen can survive then it'll likely become stronger again. Also note the way the BAMS and BAMM are much further south then BAMD as well...

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF Animation

The 12z HWRF does not go as strong as GFDL,but increases to a strong storm towards the end of the run.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/s ... Tagant.jpg
Seems the half of Karen compared to yesterday but always fighting in spite of the high shear in vicinity, but poor appearance this afternoon !

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

Bermuda has to watch Karen if NOGAPS is right.

[hurricanetrack]

For everyone saying that Karen is sub-tropical now, would you then agree that all sheared systems that look(ed) like Karen does now should be re-classified as sub-tropical? I am not understanding this line of thinking. It is a warm core tropical cyclone that is being sheared from strong winds blowing the t-storms away from the well defined, warm core, low level center. Where is this sub-tropical business coming from?

[Gustywind]

For everyone saying that Karen is sub-tropical now, would you then agree that all sheared systems that look(ed) like Karen does now should be re-classified as sub-tropical? I am not understanding this line of thinking. It is a warm core tropical cyclone that is being sheared from strong winds blowing the t-storms away from the well defined, warm core, low level center. Where is this sub-tropical business coming from?

Agree with you in don't see that folks

[deltadog03]

Yeah, it still has a W A R M core....ITs not subtropical. Being sheared not transforming into a cold cored.

['CaneFreak]

I'm at work right now. Could someone post a 12Z model graphic for me please? Thanks.

[hurricanetrack]

It would just be crazy to see it sheared and exposed and call it ST and then 12 hours later when the convection wraps, it is tropical again. Then, 6 hours later, ST and so forth.

This baby came from Africa where it's hot. Nothing sub-tropical about it

[jhamps10]

I can't post any images, but I'm hearing that the 12z EURO is hinting at a possible south Florida hit by Karen, as a pretty strong storm (sub 980 mb).

[Derecho]

Hasn't quite made landfall at 240 but on the EC Karen obviously hits Florida as a powerful storm.

[KWT]

Wow...thats really going to throw some uncertainty into the long term track. They way the upper high builds past 144hrs on most models suggests a possible east coast threat providing it doesn't get above 30N by that time. Nogaps sort of suggests a possible NE US/Newfoundland hit, obviously the ECM suggests Florida and the GFS suggests an east coast threat as well.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is new..<barf>

[chris_fit]

Hasn't quite made landfall at 240 but on the EC Karen obviously hits Florida as a powerful storm.

Pro Mets, is there any merit to this?

[Cyclone1]

Wow! That's what I call a model shift.

[tolakram]

Not giving up yet.

[AJC3]

Hasn't quite made landfall at 240 but on the EC Karen obviously hits Florida as a powerful storm.

Pro Mets, is there any merit to this?

Well, I'd give it no more or less merit than I'd put into any other 10-day model forecast.

[Buck]

Looks a little better than it did earlier.