ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

Dare I say intensifying again?

[cycloneye]

Forecast to become a hurricane per 5 PM.

WTNT41 KNHC 192043
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Downdraft]

After 30 years of watching tropical cyclones I have never seen one maintain and actually improve its radar presentation for so long after moving over land. This has been one incredible system and I'm sure will be talked about for a long time to come. If I personally didn't dislike these storms so much I'd almost be rooting for it!

[terrapintransit]

Dare I say intensifying again?

That is INCREDIBLE!! I cannot believe it looks that good after being over land for almost 12 hrs!!!
There actually is a defined eyewall

[CronkPSU]

wow.this is crazy...I haven't seen the NHC sound so alarmed In a dscussion in a very long time

[eastcoastFL]

looks like port st lucie hasn't seen the last of fay. More storms and wind to come tonight!

[CrazyC83]

Notice that they mention the 55 kt is conservative. I believe it is 60-65 kt right now (65 based on a surface observation about 4 hours ago but it might have weakened a tad since). The station data will give a good idea on the pressure.

I think the 65 kt forecast in the Atlantic is extremely conservative, I wouldn't be surprised to see it exceed that within the first 3 hours over water.

[SoupBone]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

[Brent]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Gradually.

[Sabanic]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Gradually.

Looks like quite a few more crazy days ahead for sure.

Prayers are up for all of those in Florida also.

[TideJoe]

Dare I say intensifying again?

The storm looks like it's traveling nearly due north on that radar.

[Toyota Thundra]

I can see some bad flooding possibilities in the future

Fay really has been a nail biter, even with low intensity. No telling what shes gonna do next.

[vbhoutex]

I do believe, based on the radar above that Fay is finally starting to lose a little definition, especially on the West side of the "eye". Earlier it was clear she was feeding off the GOM also with a feeder band set up. That appears to be gone or almost gone now, therefore the degradation on the W side. I am not so sure she is going to make the Atlantic though. I do have to agree with earlier posts that she is still definitely being flattened on the NW side by the front, but I'm not sure that will last too much longer. As far as movement is concerned I don't have the tools that AFM has so I have to trust his calcs, but I am going to be watching the radar closely to see if the trend I think I may be seeing(vs good calcs)continues. Then I will feel more comfortable commenting on direction of the track.

Paraphrasing from above, I am only going to change the number-"in 50 years of watchting and tracking the tropics I have never seen anything like Fay...." !!!! Fay, in all her forms is definitely one for the rcord booka and for many discussions for years to come.

[hiflyer]

Down to 5kts fwd motion at 18 degrees last 90 mins per radar....bout 10 miles wnw of the bustling metropolis of Okeechobee

[Toyota Thundra]

Dare I say intensifying again?

The storm looks like it's traveling nearly due north on that radar.

Sure does Ruh Roh

[cpdaman]

20 degrees NNE is "nearly due north" lol just a bit to the right

forecast calls for this to reach atlantic over water but i am very skeptical, i think the bigger issue may be how much latitude it gains before it turns westward

[Toyota Thundra]

20 degrees NNE is "nearly due north" lol just a bit to the right

forecast calls for this to reach atlantic over water but i am very skeptical, i think the bigger issue may be how much latitude it gains before it turns westward

I would like some rain in the bay area

[MiamiensisWx]

August 18-19, 2008 - Florida becomes the next state (after Oklahoma in 2007) to become an ocean

Structure looks even better on radar... amazing...

I can't even detect any signs of a decaying eyewall structure.

Similar cases have occurred in previous seasons, but it's equally remarkable to view on every occasion.