ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Nj612]

I live in the BVI and i agree with you....i also went from "WOW look at that beauty"....to right now my stomach is in knots, i just have a bad feeling, and it won't change until i see a change in movement. Me and my fam are getting preparing justttt in case.

[canes101]

Well I am in no way an expert on storms and there motion, however I have noticed that before a turn the storms normally tend to elongate in that direction don't they? So in this case it would "stretch out" North and south? Is that happening now?? The storm was nice and tight and symmetrical this morning.. And now?? Well not so much

Early Shot:


Curent Shot:


Early Shot:


Curent Shot:


So again I don't know a whole lot about the behavior of these systems and I don't pretend to... But.... is that whats happening?

[hunkerdown]

Okay, so I'm not much of a regular poster here, mostly because I don't know half as much as 99% of the people that DO regularly post... so please be lenient with me and what perhaps will be a stupid question:

This reminds me of Ike. He had a similar projected path when he was way out there in the Atlantic. Are there any similarities between the conditions that are influenced Ike's projected path and the conditions that are influencing Igor's?

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010091318, , BEST, 0, 176N, 501W, 130, 933, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

well the best track went from 17.7 to 17.6
still just south of due west..at 11mph faster that than the NHC advisory..

[HurricaneRobert]

Igor has a perfect eye now. I would say it's a 5 if it had a few more reds.

Category 5 hurricanes have almost always hit land in the Atlantic.

[expat2carib]

OK they have been great. But don't ignore the "Earl factor" for not so long ago. NHC projection of Earl didn't suppose to shave the northern Leewards until very late where the cone changed.

The NE Leewards were in the 5-day cone in the Wed. Aug. 25 5pm and 11pm advisories. They were then out of the cone for 2 advisories - Thu. Aug. 26 5am and 11am. By Thu. Aug. 26 5pm they were back in the cone and remained in the cone all the way up to impact.

I stand corrected. I had the clear impression that the whole time the northern Leewards were at the border of the cone and went out of it at times.I had the same impression from TWO's that the northern Leewards had nothing to fear. Until the 27/28 TWO's

The border of the cone is different than being in the projected path.

[cycloneye]

From 18z Tropical Models Suite.

LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 50.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

[x-y-no]

Okay, so I'm not much of a regular poster here, mostly because I don't know half as much as 99% of the people that DO regularly post... so please be lenient with me and what perhaps will be a stupid question:

This reminds me of Ike. He had a similar projected path when he was way out there in the Atlantic. Are there any similarities between the conditions that are influenced Ike's projected path and the conditions that are influencing Igor's?

See advisory graphic archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Ike was never forecast to recurve at sea.

[painkillerr]

Clearly still moving just south of due west and is south of all guidance which have it moving WNW now..

Aric can you share the link is loop please?

[Aric Dunn]

Okay, so I'm not much of a regular poster here, mostly because I don't know half as much as 99% of the people that DO regularly post... so please be lenient with me and what perhaps will be a stupid question:

This reminds me of Ike. He had a similar projected path when he was way out there in the Atlantic. Are there any similarities between the conditions that are influenced Ike's projected path and the conditions that are influencing Igor's?

See advisory graphic archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Ike was never forecast to recurve at sea.

well not by the NHC.. but many of the models did recurve it..

[RL3AO]

Where are the Ike comparisons coming from. Ike was never foretasted to hit north of Miami. This is forecasted to curve near Bermuda. Not comparable.

[Tommedic]

Having been brought up with only radio reports, then finally old sat pics, now with High res sats and models, I would like to interject this. Based on WV and Vis pics today, it would have been my projection that Florida, GOM, and Se Us need to watch very carefully. The cloud patterns look more like a storm that is either making it's own environment or just not being picked up by what we have seen in charts. It almost seemed as if the clouds are wanting to push just south of west at this time. If I were a resident of islands I would be watching very carefully just in case.

Not in any way a professional. Just been tracking since 1960. Realize that any comments here are my opinion only and definitely not educated in meteorology.

[Aric Dunn]

Where are the Ike comparisons coming from. Ike was never foretasted to hit north of Miami. This is forecasted to curve near Bermuda. Not comparable.

I posted this link a couple pages back .. apparently no body looked at it..



http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 8&title=09[/quote]

[artist]

I think what people are wanting to know is what kept Ike on a left projectory versus what is supposed to make Igor turn to the north/northwest.
In other words, did Ike not have a trough, etc. They are asking for the specifics as to the setups of each.

[cpdaman]

latest thru 245

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

wnw wobble? at end...upon 2'nd look ...nope still W

[x-y-no]

Well I am in no way an expert on storms and there motion, however I have noticed that before a turn the storms normally tend to elongate in that direction don't they? So in this case it would "stretch out" North and south? Is that happening now?? The storm was nice and tight and symmetrical this morning.. And now?? Well not so much

[snip]

So again I don't know a whole lot about the behavior of these systems and I don't pretend to... But.... is that whats happening?

I'm open to contrary opinions, but to me it just looks like the outflow has improved all around. I'm not seeing that distortion that frequently appears as a storm rounds the end of the ridge and starts to feel a trough.

[SoupBone]

Where are the Ike comparisons coming from. Ike was never foretasted to hit north of Miami. This is forecasted to curve near Bermuda. Not comparable.

Ike was brought up a few pages back. I am far less concerned with an Ike setup as I am with the islands possibly getting a brush from Igor. Instead of Ike comparisons how about Earl comparisons since it's a recent storm with similar features?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

concern for me is knowing that often times very strong storms tend to create their own weather around them. They often build the ridge north of them stronger, and as feedback, can go more westerly. still not convinced this far out of any models, since they haven't had the path well nailed yet.
that said, that front better be nice and strong to turn igor out to sea well in advance of much more westward motion, or many will be freaking out along the coastline.

[hunkerdown]

I think what people are wanting to know is what kept Ike on a left projectory versus what is supposed to make Igor turn to the north/northwest.
In other words, did Ike not have a trough, etc. They are asking for the specifics as to the setups of each.

Thanks for phrasing my question in a more articulate way.

[Aric Dunn]

Well I am in no way an expert on storms and there motion, however I have noticed that before a turn the storms normally tend to elongate in that direction don't they? So in this case it would "stretch out" North and south? Is that happening now?? The storm was nice and tight and symmetrical this morning.. And now?? Well not so much

[snip]

So again I don't know a whole lot about the behavior of these systems and I don't pretend to... But.... is that whats happening?

I'm open to contrary opinions, but to me it just looks like the outflow has improved all around. I'm not seeing that distortion that frequently appears as a storm rounds the end of the ridge and starts to feel a trough.

yeah the inner core (which is what you need to look at) is not distorted...