ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SeGaBob]

Well what I take from all of this is that something will be in the Bahamas in the 8-10 day time frame. From there who knows what will happen..it is interesting that the Euro is so much further west then the GFS...

I think it's because the Euro moves it inland faster so that trough doesn't make it in time like the slower Gfs.

[Blown Away]

Well what I take from all of this is that something will be in the Bahamas in the 8-10 day time frame. From there who knows what will happen..it is interesting that the Euro is so much further west then the GFS...

It's because the EURO is faster with 99L

Euro was way faster, it had 99L S of Alabama in GOM at 240... Hundreds of miles difference...

[PTrackerLA]

Close call for NC this run, as has been stated thought this is pure fantasy at this range.

[Bocadude85]

Well what I take from all of this is that something will be in the Bahamas in the 8-10 day time frame. From there who knows what will happen..it is interesting that the Euro is so much further west then the GFS...

The Euro is also several days faster than the GFS. Now the question is what model is right?

My best guess would be something in between.. If the models behave the same way as they did with Earl in this time frame then I would expect a southwest shift with time. When the models with Earl first started showing development they had Earl hitting Texas or the NE Mexican coast.

[Kingarabian]

The general agreement now is that 99L should remain weak for the next 5 or so days.

[AutoPenalti]

Call BS on the trough picking this up, there's no way this trough came out of nowhere with 200+ Hrs of anticipation. Lol.

[Kingarabian]

Call BS on the trough picking this up, there's no way this trough came out of nowhere with 200+ Hrs of anticipation. Lol.

In recent years, you can almost always expect a trough. Having a ridge force a storm west is key.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.

[NDG]

The pattern has been for a anomalous ridging across the eastern US all month long, the models have not been handling the ridging that well in their medium to long range but the GFS is handling it the worst. As time gets closer the GFS will start trending towards the Euro of a stronger ridge across the eastern US in the 7-10 day range.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 18Z GFS, It looks like a bit "stronger" and west Fiona erodes just enough of the ridge to force a more NW movement of 99l north of Hispaniola. The 12Z showed just enough of a ridge to keep 99L moving more WNW into the SE Bahamas, with little interaction with Fiona.

Fiona may play a key role in where 99L ends up as far as just how much latitude 99L gains before the more westerly turn.

[Kingarabian]

The pattern has been for a anomalous ridging across the eastern US all month long, the models have not been handling the ridging that well in their medium to long range but the GFS is handling it the worst. As time gets closer the GFS will start trending towards the Euro of a stronger ridge across the eastern US in the 7-10 day range.

Initially, it was the GFS that had a ridge force 99L into SE USA, Florida, and the GOM in its respective runs.

[Hammy]

I think we'll start seeing the development %'s eventually lowered down to or near zero for the short term but probably raised again as the time frame draws closer, probably mid-week, should the trend towards Bahamas development continue.

[jason1912]

Now we wait 4 hours for the 00z runs

[NDG]

The pattern has been for a anomalous ridging across the eastern US all month long, the models have not been handling the ridging that well in their medium to long range but the GFS is handling it the worst. As time gets closer the GFS will start trending towards the Euro of a stronger ridge across the eastern US in the 7-10 day range.

Initially, it was the GFS that had a ridge force 99L into SE USA, Florida, and the GOM in its respective runs.

In the 10-14 day range the GFS is always going throw out every possible solution out there.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why is ECMWF so much faster? Is it because of Fiona?

[p1nheadlarry]

Why is ECMWF so much faster? Is it because of Fiona?

GFS wants to pull 99L northward, which would slow it down. But it does appear slower than the ECMWF even before then.

[northjaxpro]

GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.

The ridging as been persistent and strong all season long to this point. I would lean toward the EURO cautiously.

[p1nheadlarry]

GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.

The ridging as been persistent and strong all season long to this point. I would lean toward the EURO cautiously.

It might have taken until mid-late August to get it right

[BobHarlem]

Trend animations:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 4340441089

[TheStormExpert]

GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.

The ridging as been persistent and strong all season long to this point. I would lean toward the EURO cautiously.

I'm leaning towards the Euro as well, especially when the GFS likes to overdo the intensity of things.

Also there has been such persistent strong ridging/Bermuda High all summer that I can only recall just a handful of days where the afternoon thunderstorm activity has been focused on the East Coast of Florida and not the West Coast or inland.