2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Dont mean it wont be back.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro dropped everything, including a small EPAC storm.

[Kingarabian]

Rrcent runs from the GFS - anytime the GFS favor EPAC development, it drops Atlantic development. And vice versa.

[gatorcane]

The 06Z GEFS is still showing what looks like 6 GFS ensemble members with development and those that develop look to make it pretty strong, 168 hours below. It would not surprise me if the GFS operational and/or ECMWF goes back to showing development on a subsequent run:

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/892384582020026370

[Siker]

12 EPS has ~14 members depicting at least a TD from the wave to exit Africa tomorrow.

[Alyono]

ec probs have a 40-50% chance of a tropical storm in the central Atlantic in the 7-8 day time period

[AutoPenalti]

Seems kind of interesting that the GFS is not really taking into account the Kelvin wave, maybe that's why it's so conservative these next few days?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Seems kind of interesting that the GFS is not really taking into account the Kelvin wave, maybe that's why it's so conservative these next few days?

Could be one of the reasons for sure. Overall ever since the upgrade, this model has had no clue of the upper environment. Things like that will prevent anything from developing in the GFS's world.

[Siker]

00z Euro picking up on some development with the wave coming off Africa again.

[Siker]

Euro also continues to depict some development in the Western Caribbean in 6 days. Actually two simultaneous TC's in the Caribbean on this run .

Pretty great moisture / shear conditions as it moves into the BoC. Anticyclone helps shear apart the eastern storm.

[Hammy]

Euro also continues to depict some development in the Western Caribbean in 6 days. Actually two simultaneous TC's in the Caribbean on this run .

First time this season the Euro showed two storms at once--I don't think it did that even with Bret/Cindy.

[Cpv17]

Why is it that the 00z Euro run tends to be more aggressive developing tropical cyclones and the 12z run backs away from it? Just a trend I've noticed lately.

[Hammy]

Sharp rise in MDR instability in the last few days.

[Blown Away]

06Z GFS, Nada through Aug 18th.
00z Euro, TD/TS moves through E Caribbean and dies over Hispaniola. TS forms @168 hours in BOC, that is usually sure fire guarantee honey spot.

[tolakram]

I think both models are showing something in the BOC between 240 and 250 hours. I think this makes sense due to the fact conditions should be improving from west to east (if I understand this correctly). Too far out to be trusted yet.

[gatorcane]

TS forms @168 hours in BOC, that is usually sure fire guarantee honey spot.

Since 2010, the BOC has seen some kind of tropical system, if not multiple systems in one year, every year except for 2015. I understand 2015 since there was the El Nino creating shear.

That BOC always seems to have something - 6 of the last 7 years! These systems get little attention on this board especially if they move west into Mexico which is usually the case.

[Ntxw]

There is troughiness across the middle of the nation and a weakness (below normal heights across the southern plains). Regardless of development or whether it goes to MX, the Texas folks will be watching it, any moisture would likely get drawn up

[Siker]

UKMET develops the wave that just emerged off Africa:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.6N 36.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2017 72 11.6N 36.5W 1011 27
0000UTC 06.08.2017 84 12.4N 39.4W 1009 30
1200UTC 06.08.2017 96 12.8N 42.6W 1006 35
0000UTC 07.08.2017 108 13.3N 45.5W 1005 38
1200UTC 07.08.2017 120 13.6N 48.5W 1004 40
0000UTC 08.08.2017 132 14.0N 51.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 08.08.2017 144 14.6N 55.5W 1002

CMC is also developing it for the first time (albeit much differently than the other models, moving significantly slower).

Can we start a thread for this area / unlock the one that was opened a few days ago since it's actually emerged off Africa now?

[Alyono]

that system is getting SAL blasted at the end of the period. Notice how fast it is moving after 5 days