Texas Spring 2017

[Cpv17]

Looks like we could get about one inch of rain in my part of SE TX in the next week. I suppose that's better than nothing lol the ground is so dry here it would soak it up like nothing and would look like it never rained at all.

[Brent]

Don't look now, but the last couple of Euro runs have drastically cut back the rain for DFW. The 12z has less than an inch for most of the area and has the biggest totals out to the west. This is after showing a major rain event for days on end. It seems like anytime the Euro has shown snow or big rain for DFW in the 5 -10 period over the past year it has almost always been a swing an miss. Looks like it is happening again. Of course, the GFS has flipped and now has big totals for DFW, esp. east of I35

The 0z Euro has come back much wetter and now the GFS/Euro are pretty close in agreement with 2-3 inches in DFW.

Looks like Friday Night into Saturday would be the biggest chance for heavy rain.

The CMC is still drier with only around an inch and the heaviest axis NW of the metroplex.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Based entirely off of forecasts, the threat for severe weather has increased a little bit up here along the red river. It was in the forecast earlier yesterday, was removed yesterday afternoon and added back this morning. Also, the chance of rain through the end of the week has increased. Hopefully it actually delivers this time, my coastal fields cant get much drier than they already are.

[EF-5bigj]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0220.html PDS watch

[South Texas Storms]

Looking forward to an active weather pattern returning over the next few weeks. Much of the state could get over 1 inch of rain by early next week.

[JDawg512]

Thanks for the feedback about capping. I find the subject interesting for several reasons which were mentioned.

Good moisture tap from the gulf today. I've been keeping my eye on the short range models, hoping that they improve over the next 6 hours because right now most are showing a fairly thin weakening line of storms reaching the 35 corridor tomorrow morning. At least it's the start of a more active period. I may try to get out and do some storm chasing later this week too.

[Texas Snowman]

As mentioned above, a PDS tornado watch in the Texas Panhandle and extreme western Oklahoma through 10 p.m.

Several tornado warnings are active at the moment. LOTS of chasers converging out there, James Spann even tweeted about that and urged them to stay safe:

@spann -- Seems like all weather weenies are converging here. Stay safe… twitter.com/NWSAmarillo/st…

[Texas Snowman]

From Brad Sowder at OKC's KOCO:

@KOCOBrad -- If a tornado warning is issued for you this evening, don't brush it off, these could be BIG tornadoes. #okwx

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Pac cooled off generally this week, especially in the NW Pac. May not have much effect for Summer, but checking things out for winter already

[JDawg512]

I really miss TVNweather, it was by far the best site to watch live chaser feeds. For some reason I can't watch full screen feeds through SevereStudios and many of the feeds freeze up within a couple of minutes. Its a shame they decided to shut TVN down.

I hope everyone up in that area stays safe.

[Texas Snowman]

TXC483-162315-
/O.COR.KAMA.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170516T2315Z/
Wheeler TX-
535 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
WHEELER COUNTY...

At 534 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Wheeler, or 13 miles north of Shamrock, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Storm chasers have confirmed a tornado on the ground and
is rain wrapped.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wheeler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3532 10034 3537 10039 3561 10022 3553 10005
3534 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 216DEG 30KT 3538 10032

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

Line forming way out west. Lets see if it survives or holds together better than models are thinking

[TheProfessor]

Some very large hail analogs are showing up on the GFS and NAM, The Enhanced risk is somewhat small for Thursday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it expanded on Day 1 for hail if the model trends continue.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS has nearly 10" of rain at DFW over the next two weeks.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Picked up 3/4'' of rain last night with hopefully more to come if the NOAA graphic for Friday and Friday night are correct. Anywhere from 3.81" to 4.40" forecasted.

[Tireman4]

StormingB81 is out there chasing these storms....

[bubba hotep]

While the main focus tomorrow will be to our north, the models are depicting some pretty impressive parameters across N. Texas tomorrow. It wouldn't be surprising to see SPC upgrade portions of the area tomorrow.

The Mike Ventrice index looks pretty impressive for tomorrow:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864885478276960259

[Brent]

00z GFS has nearly 10" of rain at DFW over the next two weeks.

Almost 8" this run

Looks like the pattern could be even more active around here next week leading into Memorial Day weekend. Maybe a brief fropa Sunday/Monday(yes in late May), before it starts up again

The 12z Euro brings widespread rain back by Monday Morning

[South Texas Storms]

While the main focus tomorrow will be to our north, the models are depicting some pretty impressive parameters across N. Texas tomorrow. It wouldn't be surprising to see SPC upgrade portions of the area tomorrow.

The Mike Ventrice index looks pretty impressive for tomorrow:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864885478276960259

Latest high resolution models are indicating scattered strong to severe storms developing across central and north Texas tomorrow afternoon. Could be an active severe weather day tomorrow.