ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:

If Irma is looking like she will be heading to Florida by Monday or Tuesday I'm going to be evacuating maybe to Georgia.

Last year with Matthew I regretted not leaving just before the storm was supposed to hit and then we got lucky and it wobbled. But just prior to that wobbled my local forecast was for 145mph winds and I was wishing I left.

I have small kids so if there's anything over a cat 2 again I'm outta here with as much time to spare as I can.

I'm in Palm City by the way which is just North of Palm Beach county on the east coast.

Hello neighbor...nice to meet a local...

Floridian here, too. I'm due west of you guys!

I think when it comes down to whether to stay or go when assessing a storm, people look around and think, "I want to be close to my familiar things. I think I'll be fine if I stay here...."and plenty of other rationalizations.

I think people think with their emotions and make the decision to stay rather than think logically and for the long term....

My opinion on the matter.....

[SFLcane]

Woah with 1 model run ECMWF out to sea this place is dead lol.

[eastcoastFL]

Obviously still a far far away but when can we expect to start seeing recon missions?

Probably no recon (manned) until next Tuesday at the earliest, once it's west of 50W. I would think that the Global Hawk would be flying missions before then.

I've noticed that the Euro has tended to be too far left/south this season (Cindy/Harvey as examples), while the GFS/CMC have tended to recurve too early. Actual track has tended to be in between the two, generally closer to the Euro than the GFS/CMC. Interesting that the overnight Euro recurves east of the U.S. Way too early to be confident in that. I think a SE U.S. hit is quite possible. Maybe 30-40% chance of Irma entering the Gulf.

I'm in central Florida, and I tend to wait until things are pretty sure to head to the store, but for this one I think I'll go get water and supplies this weekend!

Good idea. Though I'm going to get fuel this morning. The prices are already crazy because of Harvey and there's a possibility of fuel shortages in the near future.

[tgenius]

Woah with 1 model run ECMWF out to sea this place is dead lol.

Yeah it did slow down quite a bit. I'm curious to see the 12z Euro to see if it continues the 00z curve. We will also get the 12z GFS before then. Like I said before. I'll look by Monday, if it's still an unknown then I'll watch continuously, for now we just wait.

[eastcoastFL]

Are any models in particular better at forecasting ridges and troughs?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Are any models in particular better at forecasting ridges and troughs?

Troughs. At least IMHO they are. I mentioned yesterday that the ECMWF would come around to the OTS solution. East Coast has been spared by it for a long time now. It is rare to see Fran, Hugo, or Andrew type of tracks.

[Blown Away]

Wonder if Joe B sticking to his ideas??? I guess he is right either way...

[La Sirena]

Wonder if Joe B sticking to his ideas??? I guess he is right either way...

With a cone that wide he may be on to something lol.....

[DelrayMorris]

Woah with 1 model run ECMWF out to sea this place is dead lol.

Or they are sleeping. Not taking my eye off it, but I haven't been obsessing about it, anyway. It's much, much too early to tell what is going to happen, so I just monitor, get coffee and go back to work

[eastcoastFL]

Woah with 1 model run ECMWF out to sea this place is dead lol.

i think it has more to do with what time it is. a lot of people were up late watching the models and now its time for work

[eastcoastFL]

Wonder if Joe B sticking to his ideas??? I guess he is right either way...

He loves the hype. If you make a big enough cone you increase your odds of getting it right.

[Gustywind]

Irma is definately on an intensifying phase right now. circular CDO and intense convection in the eyewall ... it also the last hour appears to have turned more westerly again. It is the best it has looked so far.

Interresting as usual . Well, What are your best thoughts today for the Lesser Antilles (track, intensity, tendency,day of arrival approximately, etc.). Give us your whole package for Irma's tendency. That should be a good thing towards the islanders of the EC Thanks.

[Blown Away]

Woah with 1 model run ECMWF out to sea this place is dead lol.

We knew that Euro being such a southern outlier had to budge...

[Frank2]

Any system that is nearing 20N 40W is usually a recurve (fish) system. I was trying to explain that yesterday but many put too much on the models, and not enough on basic meteorology. The further east and north a system forms, the more likely it will recurve.

This morning a local OCM (who worked at TWC) said the same, that a system in it's current location usually does not pose a threat to South Florida, but he would monitor it, just in case.

Frank

[Blown Away]

Just N of W...

[eastcoastFL]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

heres a recent rainbow IR image. Looking pretty wild this morning.

[eastcoastFL]

Just N of W...

lol. i was just trying to post that same thing. Can you tell me how you did it? i kept trying with no luck. best i can do is post a link

[SFLcane]

Any system that is nearing 20N 40W is usually a recurve (fish) system. I was trying to explain that yesterday but many put too much on the models, and not enough on basic meteorology. The further east and north a system forms, the more likely it will recurve.

This morning a local OCM (who worked at TWC) said the same, that a system in it's current location usually does not pose a threat to South Florida, but he would monitor it, just in case.

Frank

Its amazing that yes at 20N it might pose a threat to the islands alone. For SFL or the US for that matter it is indeed VERY RARE for any tropical system at that latitude to not find an escape alley sooner rather then later. If overnight trends continue this system might not affect anyone period.

[msbee]

God morning everyone
I see some of you have been up all night
St Maarten continues to watch Irma carefully and storm preparations are taking place.
I have a question.
I see where the forecast said currently hurricane force winds extend out only 15 miles form the center. is that accurate?
If there is eyewall replacement and strengthening of Irma, would this then result in a larger eye wall with hurricane winds extending further out?
Thanks

[hohnywx]

Any system that is nearing 20N 40W is usually a recurve (fish) system. I was trying to explain that yesterday but many put too much on the models, and not enough on basic meteorology. The further east and north a system forms, the more likely it will recurve.

This morning a local OCM (who worked at TWC) said the same, that a system in it's current location usually does not pose a threat to South Florida, but he would monitor it, just in case.

Frank

And how many of those storms that near 20N 40W commence a WSW/SW motion after that point? This storm is going against climatology and to just assume it will not be a threat because of its location today is not an astute assumption to make; similar to the many people who jump on and off the "landfall!" ship every six hours.