MoliNuno wrote:gatorcane wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldnt stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.
Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.
Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year
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Interesting WeatherEmperor. If we do manage to get hit this year I really think it would be from a Caribbean system recurving through Florida maybe in October or late September. For some reason I don’t have that feeling we will get hit this year. I did not have a good feeling about 2017 though. I see a busy season but no direct hits for South Florida from any hurricanes. I see a lot of recurving hurricanes east of the islands and the US and some west runners in the Caribbean impacting Central America, the Yucatán and the GOM.
Thing is, it takes a lot to "go right" for a storm to hit South Florida. SFL is kind of protected by Cuba and the Caribbean islands which weaken anything that come through it, and then you have the Bahamas in front of FL which typically take the brunt of storms recurving away from FL. South Florida is a bit tricky for a storm, even look at Irma.
That's mostly a false sense of security, some of the most intense hurricanes that have hit S FL have tracked over Cuba and the Bahamas, have re-intensified quickly before striking FL. Good example is Charlie in 2004.
The exceptions like Irma that moved very slowly over the coast of northern Cuba, if not stalled for a few hours, causing it to weaken. Other storms that have moved right over the Island of Cuba almost on its entire length have definitely weakened before hitting FL. Their track over the greater Antilles will definitely dictate what strength they are before hitting FL.
A majority of the MHs that have hit SE FL have tracked over the Bahamas first and did not weakened them much if any because of their flat stip topography.
