ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1041 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:20 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:How much this thing consolidates tomorrow is going to be critical.


Key time will be tomorrow and through midday and evening on Thursday. Once it clears (IF IT CLEARS) Hispaniola, we'll know better what we're dealing with.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1042 Postby Evenstar » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:24 pm

Nimbus wrote:Levi said maybe if or when it consolidates north of Puerto Rico on Thursday we can waste our storm2k bandwidth with a forecast for Florida/southeast.

Storm warnings are up for Leewards and Puerto Rico but they will survive.
Just bring in the Lawn furniture and cockatiels..


Save the cockatiels AND the cocktails. I might need both if some of these models are correct. Birds to maintain comms when the power goes down and cocktails for when the birds don't come back.

Cheers!

(Sorry, totally not a model thread-appropriate post, but I'm not a habitual offender and hope our mods will let it slide this time...)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1043 Postby Ritzcraker » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:25 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:HMON TREND

https://i.imgur.com/z0Pihfi.gif


Wouldn’t call one model run a “trend”
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1044 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:26 pm

Ritzcraker wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:HMON TREND

https://i.imgur.com/z0Pihfi.gif


Wouldn’t call one model run a “trend”


That's what it's called on TT. Can't really think of a better name.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1045 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:27 pm

HMON brushes Nassau with the SW eyewall and heads for West End on Grand Bahama Island. The last couple of frames weakened it.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1046 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:27 pm

Ritzcraker wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:HMON TREND

https://i.imgur.com/z0Pihfi.gif


Wouldn’t call one model run a “trend”

A trend I do notice is the reduction of dry air between runs.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1047 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:28 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Ritzcraker wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:HMON TREND

https://i.imgur.com/z0Pihfi.gif


Wouldn’t call one model run a “trend”


That's what it's called on TT. Can't really think of a better name.

A comparison of different runs?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1048 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:33 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1049 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:46 pm

18z HWRF/para has a strengthening hurricane 979mb heading straight for SFL. :eek:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1050 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:47 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/A79UNvA.png


The NHC 5pm position was 14.4/55.9 which is a full degree N of the 18z GFS initial point?
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1051 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:48 pm

SFLcane wrote:18z HWRF/para has a strengthening hurricane 979mb heading straight for SFL. :eek:


It's going to be a close call I think. Looks like it may be starting to turn just after Andros. Maybe ride the Gulf Stream to the North.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1052 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:50 pm

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1053 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:50 pm

CM2 wrote:HWRF keeps having a strengthening trend. Quite interesting
https://imgur.com/vvViNiA


992mb it’s Cat 1?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1054 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:58 pm

Talk about game of inches...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1055 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:58 pm

regular HWRF start to slow down around andros and drift back wnw towards florida at 105 hours
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1056 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:02 pm

HWRF Para missed some frames and the money shot but based on the most recent image it looks like right on the coast right by your house BlownAway.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1057 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:05 pm

HWRF regular is also pretty sheared the entire time...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1058 Postby bohai » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:06 pm

If it rides the GulfStream and is a formidable TS or C1H, that will play havoc with areas that Sandy ravaged years back and the surge would be horrendous if the models pan out to move it northward and not really OTS.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1059 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:09 pm

GFS Para coming in a little stronger.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1060 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:09 pm

Blown Away wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/A79UNvA.png


The NHC 5pm position was 14.4/55.9 which is a full degree N of the 18z GFS initial point?


Doesn't the 18Z use the 2 pm position which was 14.1n 54.8w? Either way, looks like it may be a bit off.
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