2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

Scary Z500 combo here… Euro and Cánsips

If this verified I expect multiple Fl threats come ASO.

[Category5Kaiju]

I feel that the lack of season cancel this year is because there are very alarming signs that this season will be at least above average. Once you look at the activity we have left along with the steering near peak season, there is not much left to do other than simply wait for what we might be in for.

Oh believe me, at least on social media I have personally seen some people still cancel this season without any credible or accurate evidence for doing so. For example one person simply said "oh, this is not going to be active at all" without even putting in the effort to support his/her claim while another said "because last year we had 30 named storms last year I feel we are only going to have 14 in total this year. This year is not going to be busy because last year we went Greek and were very busy."

[toad strangler]

Scary Z500 combo here… Euro and Cánsips

If this verified I expect multiple Fl threats come ASO.

https://i.postimg.cc/qv8Nmwqh/7-F446396-8-C96-4096-9-CE4-D2-D6-E13-D92-FA.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/Sx0X73Sb/9-BB43-B3-C-63-EE-4-AB2-9858-E951-CD258138.jpg

I think this deserves another
Waiting on NOAA now

[SFLcane]

Scary Z500 combo here… Euro and Cánsips

If this verified I expect multiple Fl threats come ASO.

https://i.postimg.cc/qv8Nmwqh/7-F446396-8-C96-4096-9-CE4-D2-D6-E13-D92-FA.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/Sx0X73Sb/9-BB43-B3-C-63-EE-4-AB2-9858-E951-CD258138.jpg

I think this deserves another
Waiting on NOAA now

Oh I have no doubt NOAA will be going gangbusters with there seasonal update in early August so don’t be surprised.

[Category5Kaiju]

If late July/early August are able to generate several more named storms, I seriously would not be surprised if NOAA decides to do something where within the range of potential number of named storms they include 20, 21, or even above 21.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I feel that the lack of season cancel this year is because there are very alarming signs that this season will be at least above average. Once you look at the activity we have left along with the steering near peak season, there is not much left to do other than simply wait for what we might be in for.

Oh believe me, at least on social media I have personally seen some people still cancel this season without any credible or accurate evidence for doing so. For example one person simply said "oh, this is not going to be active at all" without even putting in the effort to support his/her claim while another said "because last year we had 30 named storms last year I feel we are only going to have 14 in total this year. This year is not going to be busy because last year we went Greek and were very busy."

I love when people try to put that kind of logic on weather. The law of large numbers is often mistakenly interpreted here and I believe the term is gamblers fallacy where because one year had few storms that the next must have many and vice versa. Never fails to crack me up.

[Shell Mound]

From CSU:

In general, early season Atlantic hurricane activity has very little correlation with
overall Atlantic hurricane activity. However, when this activity occurs in the tropics
(south of 23.5°N), that is typically a harbinger of a very active season. Hurricane Elsa
formed in the tropical Atlantic and then tracked into the eastern Caribbean (10-20°N, 75-
60°W) at hurricane strength. Since 1900, only six other years have had eastern Caribbean
hurricanes prior to 1 August: 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020. All six of those
years were classified as hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons using the NOAA Atlantic
hurricane season definition (>=160 ACE).

While I do think 2021 will be an above average season, maybe even hyperactive especially now that Cool-Neutral or La Nina looks likely during the peak months. I disagree that Elsa is a sign of an active season. All of the years they mentioned, 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020, had long lived hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean. Elsa was able to jump to hurricane for a few hours before it weakened back down, unlike the aforementioned seasons' E Carib hurricanes. The fact that Elsa was not able to maintain hurricane intensity through the Eastern Caribbean due to wind shear doesn't necessarily point to an inactive season, I just don't think it means the season will be hyperactive (though it may be, just wont be because of Elsa). Elsa did not find very favorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, which is expected in july, even in an above average season. Some of the most active seasons such as 2017 don't have hurricanes in the e Caribbean in July.

Of the first five seasons, 1933, 1996, and 2005 each featured two or more hurricanes in the Caribbean in July. Storms #2 and #5 in 1933 strengthened as they tracked through the Caribbean, as did Bertha in Cesar in 1996, to not mention Dennis and Emily in 2005. All of these cyclones, along with Storm #1 of 1926, intensified steadily as they passed through the Caribbean. Storm #1 of 1926 actually strengthened to 90 kt before making landfall over Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. 1961’s Anna actually deepened to 90 kt over the west-central Caribbean Sea before striking Central America with winds of 70 to 75 kt. So I would definitely consider 1926, 1933, 1996, and 2005 to be more impressive than either 2020 or 2021 thus far, as conditions in the Caribbean were evidently more conducive than we have seen this year to date.

[CyclonicFury]

From CSU:

In general, early season Atlantic hurricane activity has very little correlation with
overall Atlantic hurricane activity. However, when this activity occurs in the tropics
(south of 23.5°N), that is typically a harbinger of a very active season. Hurricane Elsa
formed in the tropical Atlantic and then tracked into the eastern Caribbean (10-20°N, 75-
60°W) at hurricane strength. Since 1900, only six other years have had eastern Caribbean
hurricanes prior to 1 August: 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020. All six of those
years were classified as hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons using the NOAA Atlantic
hurricane season definition (>=160 ACE).

While I do think 2021 will be an above average season, maybe even hyperactive especially now that Cool-Neutral or La Nina looks likely during the peak months. I disagree that Elsa is a sign of an active season. All of the years they mentioned, 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020, had long lived hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean. Elsa was able to jump to hurricane for a few hours before it weakened back down, unlike the aforementioned seasons' E Carib hurricanes. The fact that Elsa was not able to maintain hurricane intensity through the Eastern Caribbean due to wind shear doesn't necessarily point to an inactive season, I just don't think it means the season will be hyperactive (though it may be, just wont be because of Elsa). Elsa did not find very favorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, which is expected in july, even in an above average season. Some of the most active seasons such as 2017 don't have hurricanes in the e Caribbean in July.

https://i.ibb.co/J78c7qy/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-10-kl-17-09-29.png

Of the first five seasons, 1933, 1996, and 2005 each featured two or more hurricanes in the Caribbean in July. Storms #2 and #5 in 1933 strengthened as they tracked through the Caribbean, as did Bertha in Cesar in 1996, to not mention Dennis and Emily in 2005. All of these cyclones, along with Storm #1 of 1926, intensified steadily as they passed through the Caribbean. Storm #1 of 1926 actually strengthened to 90 kt before making landfall over Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. 1961’s Anna actually deepened to 90 kt over the west-central Caribbean Sea before striking Central America with winds of 70 to 75 kt. So I would definitely consider 1926, 1933, 1996, and 2005 to be more impressive than either 2020 or 2021 thus far, as conditions in the Caribbean were evidently more conducive than we have seen this year to date.

The fact that Elsa was able to become a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on July 2, the earliest MDR hurricane in the satellite era, is significant. It also remained a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean for a while. It survived the Caribbean "graveyard" without opening up into a wave, which is remarkable for a July storm.

I like to bring up Bret and Don in 2017 as a counterargument for those that say Elsa weakening is a sign the eastern Caribbean isn't as favorable as thought. Bret and Don both opened up into a wave near the Windward Islands, and 2017 went on to have two Category 5 hurricanes hit the Lesser Antilles. Unlike Bret and Don, Elsa survived as a TC all the way from the MDR to the US, which is rare for a July storm.

It seems like you are reaching for the slightest signs the season may not be as active as expected, or that FL won't be hit this year.

[Category5Kaiju]

From CSU:

While I do think 2021 will be an above average season, maybe even hyperactive especially now that Cool-Neutral or La Nina looks likely during the peak months. I disagree that Elsa is a sign of an active season. All of the years they mentioned, 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020, had long lived hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean. Elsa was able to jump to hurricane for a few hours before it weakened back down, unlike the aforementioned seasons' E Carib hurricanes. The fact that Elsa was not able to maintain hurricane intensity through the Eastern Caribbean due to wind shear doesn't necessarily point to an inactive season, I just don't think it means the season will be hyperactive (though it may be, just wont be because of Elsa). Elsa did not find very favorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, which is expected in july, even in an above average season. Some of the most active seasons such as 2017 don't have hurricanes in the e Caribbean in July.

https://i.ibb.co/J78c7qy/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-10-kl-17-09-29.png

Of the first five seasons, 1933, 1996, and 2005 each featured two or more hurricanes in the Caribbean in July. Storms #2 and #5 in 1933 strengthened as they tracked through the Caribbean, as did Bertha in Cesar in 1996, to not mention Dennis and Emily in 2005. All of these cyclones, along with Storm #1 of 1926, intensified steadily as they passed through the Caribbean. Storm #1 of 1926 actually strengthened to 90 kt before making landfall over Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. 1961’s Anna actually deepened to 90 kt over the west-central Caribbean Sea before striking Central America with winds of 70 to 75 kt. So I would definitely consider 1926, 1933, 1996, and 2005 to be more impressive than either 2020 or 2021 thus far, as conditions in the Caribbean were evidently more conducive than we have seen this year to date.

The fact that Elsa was able to become a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on July 2, the earliest MDR hurricane in the satellite era, is significant. It also remained a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean for a while. It survived the Caribbean "graveyard" without opening up into a wave, which is remarkable for a July storm.

I like to bring up Bret and Don in 2017 as a counterargument for those that say Elsa weakening is a sign the eastern Caribbean isn't as favorable as thought. Bret and Don both opened up into a wave near the Windward Islands, and 2017 went on to have two Category 5 hurricanes hit the Lesser Antilles. Unlike Bret and Don, Elsa survived as a TC all the way from the MDR to the US, which is rare for a July storm.

It seems like you are reaching for the slightest signs the season may not be as active as expected, or that FL won't be hit this year.

Heck, take hyperactive 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, and 2010 into consideration too. Some of those years went on to get an ACE score in the very high 100s and some even over 200, yet none of theme featured a July MDR hurricane. I agree, that in itself is what matters, and of course I don't mean any criticism or offense toward Shell Mound in any manner and appreciate Shell Mound's regular posts on this forum, but I would caution against searching for even the smallest (and oftentimes very insignificant in the grand scheme of things) signs that this season would not be active. It's better to be safe and prepare as if this season will be active rather than be sorry after taking such relatively minor factors and blowing them out of proportion to wishcast and condition oneself to think that this season won't be as big of a deal.

[gatorcane]

Seeing quite a number of posts on how Florida, particularly South Florida, is under the gun this year. My feeling is likely not. I am basing this on a couple of possible indicators which probably don’t hold a lot of merit but 1) water temps have felt cooler than I can remember in years past. By now usually the water does not feel cold to go into 2) it took a lot longer than normal to get into the rainy season going here than in years past. Even into early June some parts of South Florida were seeing dew points below 70F which is really unheard of. Indeed looking at the SST anomaly picture out there we see a big swath of cooler than normal waters near Florida and the Bahamas out through a lot of the MDR. Of course the waters will warm as the summer goes on but just not as warm as I can remember in many years past.

[AlphaToOmega]

Seeing quite a number of posts on how Florida, particularly South Florida, is under the gun this year. My feeling is likely not. I am basing this on a couple of possible indicators which probably don’t hold a lot of merit but 1) water temps have felt cooler than I can remember in years past. By now usually the water does not feel cold to go into 2) it took a lot longer than normal to get into the rainy season going here than in years past. Indeed looking at the SST anomaly picture out there we see a big swath of cooler than normal waters near Florida and the Bahamas out through a lot of the MDR. Of course the waters will warm as the summer goes on but just not as warm as I can remember in many years past.

https://i.postimg.cc/7PTkP3jr/cdas-sflux-ssta-atl-1.png

CDAS has a cold bias.

[aspen]

https://i.ibb.co/J78c7qy/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-10-kl-17-09-29.png

Of the first five seasons, 1933, 1996, and 2005 each featured two or more hurricanes in the Caribbean in July. Storms #2 and #5 in 1933 strengthened as they tracked through the Caribbean, as did Bertha in Cesar in 1996, to not mention Dennis and Emily in 2005. All of these cyclones, along with Storm #1 of 1926, intensified steadily as they passed through the Caribbean. Storm #1 of 1926 actually strengthened to 90 kt before making landfall over Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. 1961’s Anna actually deepened to 90 kt over the west-central Caribbean Sea before striking Central America with winds of 70 to 75 kt. So I would definitely consider 1926, 1933, 1996, and 2005 to be more impressive than either 2020 or 2021 thus far, as conditions in the Caribbean were evidently more conducive than we have seen this year to date.

The fact that Elsa was able to become a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on July 2, the earliest MDR hurricane in the satellite era, is significant. It also remained a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean for a while. It survived the Caribbean "graveyard" without opening up into a wave, which is remarkable for a July storm.

I like to bring up Bret and Don in 2017 as a counterargument for those that say Elsa weakening is a sign the eastern Caribbean isn't as favorable as thought. Bret and Don both opened up into a wave near the Windward Islands, and 2017 went on to have two Category 5 hurricanes hit the Lesser Antilles. Unlike Bret and Don, Elsa survived as a TC all the way from the MDR to the US, which is rare for a July storm.

It seems like you are reaching for the slightest signs the season may not be as active as expected, or that FL won't be hit this year.

Heck, take hyperactive 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, and 2010 into consideration too. Some of those years went on to get an ACE score in the very high 100s and some even over 200, yet none of theme featured a July MDR hurricane. I agree, that in itself is what matters, and of course I don't mean any criticism or offense toward Shell Mound in any manner and appreciate Shell Mound's regular posts on this forum, but I would caution against searching for even the smallest (and oftentimes very insignificant in the grand scheme of things) signs that this season would not be active. It's better to be safe and prepare as if this season will be active rather than be sorry after taking such relatively minor factors and blowing them out of proportion to wishcast and condition oneself to think that this season won't be as big of a deal.

While none of those seasons featured a MDR/ECar July hurricane, most had at least one July TC that formed from an AEW, which is a significant indicator of an active season unless it’s 2013.

Anna ‘69: MDR, nearly a hurricane, formed in late July.

Chantal ‘95: Northern MDR, also nearly a hurricane, formed in mid July

Alex ‘98: MDR tropical Storm from late July

Alex ‘04: Off of the SEUS coast, formed from a combo of a non-tropical low and an AEW on July 31st, so it barely counts

Alex ‘10: Technically a June system but it did generate from an AEW and became one of the strongest systems recorded in that month

Bonnie ‘10: A weak TS from an AEW in the Bahamas in late July

[aspen]

Seeing quite a number of posts on how Florida, particularly South Florida, is under the gun this year. My feeling is likely not. I am basing this on a couple of possible indicators which probably don’t hold a lot of merit but 1) water temps have felt cooler than I can remember in years past. By now usually the water does not feel cold to go into 2) it took a lot longer than normal to get into the rainy season going here than in years past. Even into early June some parts of South Florida were seeing dew points below 70F which is really unheard of. Indeed looking at the SST anomaly picture out there we see a big swath of cooler than normal waters near Florida and the Bahamas out through a lot of the MDR. Of course the waters will warm as the summer goes on but just not as warm as I can remember in many years past.

https://i.postimg.cc/7PTkP3jr/cdas-sflux-ssta-atl-1.png

CDAS has a cool bias which is being enhanced by a SAL surge and the suppressive CCKW. Using the NOAA Coral Reef map, the MDR is average to slightly below average, but should start warming up again once SAL shuts off and the suppressive CCKW is replaced with an enhanced one later this month.

[Category5Kaiju]

Now that the suppressive phase has arrived and the MDR is cooling off a bit due to the SAL surges, there's a bit of "MDR sst hand-wringing" going on again that I see, especially on social media. However, also what I have noticed is that comparisons with 2004 are being brought up with the ridging forecast to endanger Florida later this season. So, allow me to share the sst anomalies map of 2004 on the same day we are in of the calendar year.



MDR did not look that impressive back then, didn't it?

[SFLcane]

https://i.ibb.co/J78c7qy/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-10-kl-17-09-29.png

Of the first five seasons, 1933, 1996, and 2005 each featured two or more hurricanes in the Caribbean in July. Storms #2 and #5 in 1933 strengthened as they tracked through the Caribbean, as did Bertha in Cesar in 1996, to not mention Dennis and Emily in 2005. All of these cyclones, along with Storm #1 of 1926, intensified steadily as they passed through the Caribbean. Storm #1 of 1926 actually strengthened to 90 kt before making landfall over Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. 1961’s Anna actually deepened to 90 kt over the west-central Caribbean Sea before striking Central America with winds of 70 to 75 kt. So I would definitely consider 1926, 1933, 1996, and 2005 to be more impressive than either 2020 or 2021 thus far, as conditions in the Caribbean were evidently more conducive than we have seen this year to date.

The fact that Elsa was able to become a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on July 2, the earliest MDR hurricane in the satellite era, is significant. It also remained a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean for a while. It survived the Caribbean "graveyard" without opening up into a wave, which is remarkable for a July storm.

I like to bring up Bret and Don in 2017 as a counterargument for those that say Elsa weakening is a sign the eastern Caribbean isn't as favorable as thought. Bret and Don both opened up into a wave near the Windward Islands, and 2017 went on to have two Category 5 hurricanes hit the Lesser Antilles. Unlike Bret and Don, Elsa survived as a TC all the way from the MDR to the US, which is rare for a July storm.

It seems like you are reaching for the slightest signs the season may not be as active as expected, or that FL won't be hit this year.

Heck, take hyperactive 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, and 2010 into consideration too. Some of those years went on to get an ACE score in the very high 100s and some even over 200, yet none of theme featured a July MDR hurricane. I agree, that in itself is what matters, and of course I don't mean any criticism or offense toward Shell Mound in any manner and appreciate Shell Mound's regular posts on this forum, but I would caution against searching for even the smallest (and oftentimes very insignificant in the grand scheme of things) signs that this season would not be active. It's better to be safe and prepare as if this season will be active rather than be sorry after taking such relatively minor factors and blowing them out of proportion to wishcast and condition oneself to think that this season won't be as big of a deal.

Yeah I'd be curious if you compared an SST composite of those years to this one.

[SFLcane]

Seeing quite a number of posts on how Florida, particularly South Florida, is under the gun this year. My feeling is likely not. I am basing this on a couple of possible indicators which probably don’t hold a lot of merit but 1) water temps have felt cooler than I can remember in years past. By now usually the water does not feel cold to go into 2) it took a lot longer than normal to get into the rainy season going here than in years past. Even into early June some parts of South Florida were seeing dew points below 70F which is really unheard of. Indeed looking at the SST anomaly picture out there we see a big swath of cooler than normal waters near Florida and the Bahamas out through a lot of the MDR. Of course the waters will warm as the summer goes on but just not as warm as I can remember in many years past.

https://i.postimg.cc/7PTkP3jr/cdas-sflux-ssta-atl-1.png

Come on gatorcane your basing this on ssts? There will be fine come mid August. I am really concerned about the z500 as if there is a storm to take advantage we could have big problems.

[aspen]

Even according to the Coral Reef map, much of the Atlantic is seeing cool SST anomalies, and the MDR is roughly 0.2C below normal for this time of year. According to the 7-day anomaly change map, only a small strip of the subtropics is warming. That suppressive CCKW really is working hard to make the Atlantic look as -AMO as possible in the short time it exists so s2k can go back to standard July SST handwringing and season cancel posts.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also here's another (I guess?) simple point that I would like to make. While we are all understandably monitoring the sst anomalies, shear, etc. in the Atlantic and trying to see any factors that would favor or disfavor an active season, if any expert forecasts are going to bust, etc., let's take it down a notch slightly and simply look at what is going on in the other parts of the world, primarily the WPAC and the EPAC. So far, with the exception of Surigae, the WPAC and EPAC have been fairly inactive, with each basin having produced only 5 NSs (and tied with the Atlantic in NS count so far). More importantly, there has not been any sort of burst in major-intensity tropical cyclone activity in either basin so far, and with the likely return to cool neutral or La Nina later on this season, all of these factors would logically favor one of the three major Northern Hemisphere basins: the Atlantic, that is. In short, I feel that the number of individual signs that point toward a very active Atlantic season unfortunately and clearly outnumber and outweigh the number of individual signs that point toward a lower than expected activity level.

[Monsoonjr99]

I see Elsa provided a nice distraction to the point where this thread started to season cancel cancel, but with it out of the picture now the season canceling has rapidly returned with a fury!

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413974737919746048