ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking this might be a remnant low now and if it isn't it will be one soon. Now the question is will there be enough of it left to start from scratch and try to get going again or not. I think there will be but we won't know until tomorrow.

[johngaltfla]

I'm thinking this might be a remnant low now and if it isn't it will be one soon. Now the question is will there be enough of it left to start from scratch and try to get going again or not. I think there will be but we won't know until tomorrow.

We'll know by 1100. I would prefer an open wave. We've had too much rain in SW Florida.

[Zonacane]

Not dead yet

[cheezyWXguy]

Man, that little swirl crossing from DR into Haiti really is the center, huh… Saw it earlier and thought it was just a random eddy. At current pace though, should be back over water soon, what’s left of it. And I thought Danny looked rough

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking this might be a remnant low now and if it isn't it will be one soon. Now the question is will there be enough of it left to start from scratch and try to get going again or not. I think there will be but we won't know until tomorrow.

We'll know by 1100. I would prefer an open wave. We've had too much rain in SW Florida.

Sorry I meant we won't know if it will have anything left to have a chance to recover until tomorrow. Even if it's a remnant it can still spin up again

[InfernoFlameCat]

I believe the llc has survived the trip. Remarkable. It is crossing into the sea now.

[BobHarlem]

I believe the llc has survived the trip. Remarkable. It is crossing into the sea now.

Can anyone highlight what they think is the center now? I'm not seeing it.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425608780478402560

[InfernoFlameCat]

TBH though, Fred is on life support right now.

[toad strangler]

TBH though, Fred is on life support right now.

We will see very soon but boy did I wince when seeing where Fred decided to go in and at what angle.

[Zonacane]

TBH though, Fred is on life support right now.

Nah, convection should start refiring as Fred moves north.

[Woofde]

TBH though, Fred is on life support right now.

Nah, convection should start refiring as Fred moves north.

It's certainly possible, but it takes a lot of time to start new structure even with 31C SSTs. With a South Florida landfall looking more likely, it may not have enough time to meaningfully strengthen.

[jlauderdal]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425608780478402560

The same hwrf that had a hurricane in se florida, now we are going to believe its dissipation solution one run later...just throw it out and look elsewhere for guidance

[InfernoFlameCat]

TBH though, Fred is on life support right now.

Life support check up, windrate 35mph, air pressure 1009. Anyhow yes convection will most likely refire within the next 6 hours. otherwise he will be declared dissipated

[Blown Away]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Very faint rotation @DR/Haiti border at the N coast moving @NNW... Who knows it’s all a mess now...

[toad strangler]

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425608780478402560?s=20

The same hwrf that had a hurricane in se florida, now we are going to believe its dissipation solution one run later...just throw it out and look elsewhere for guidance

I didn't believe the 12z simply because of the very tough angle Fred was heading for into Hispaniola but 18z is more plausible given that situation. Either way I don't take any modeling for gospel.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-96-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Very faint rotation @DR/Haiti border at the N coast moving @NNW... Who knows it’s all a mess now...

Yeah thats what I was looking at,

[Category5Kaiju]

Well, it looks like the Cheese Shredder has just found its latest victim!

[psyclone]

If Fred is going to recover, It probably needs to gain sufficient longitude so that inflow isn't disrupted by mountains to its south...which means it needs to get west of the high terrain of eastern Cuba. Assuming we continue to have a trackable disturbance that remains north of Cuba...It will have a better shot once it reaches a longitude near of just a degree or so east of Andros Island. We need to wait awhile before pronouncing it dead...even if it technically dissipates. we could very well round trip back to a PTC type situation even though the NHC may maintain a depression status for continuity purposes.

[jlauderdal]

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425608780478402560?s=20

The same hwrf that had a hurricane in se florida, now we are going to believe its dissipation solution one run later...just throw it out and look elsewhere for guidance

I didn't believe the 12z simply because of the very tough angle Fred was heading for into Hispaniola but 18z is more plausible given that situation. Either way I don't take any modeling for gospel.

Good idea, nhc is the gospel