2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Category5Kaiju]

The latest GFS run looks fun for sure

[captainbarbossa19]

The latest GFS run looks fun for sure

Looks like it's mainly picking up on more favorable conditions entering the basin soon. As usual, it should be most favorable in the western part first.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1553524874668347392

[lsuhurricane]

GFS Ensembles are crazy bullish as well in the 8-10 day mark. Won’t have to wait long to see if the West Caribbean is favored over the EPaC

[Teban54]

The latest GFS run looks fun for sure

This is most likely overblown, but I've always been concerned that anything entering the Gulf this year has the potential to go places. Among the pre-Bonnie ensemble runs and a handful active EPS ensemble runs for July and August, almost all tracks that somehow ended up in Gulf intensified to hurricanes and even majors.

[hurricane2025]

I mean sooner or later it’s going to crank, it’s august so gfs could be on to something .

[Blown Away]

The latest GFS run looks fun for sure

https://i.postimg.cc/pXg5FrKT/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh144-384.gif
This is most likely overblown, but I've always been concerned that anything entering the Gulf this year has the potential to go places. Among the pre-Bonnie ensemble runs and a handful active EPS ensemble runs for July and August, almost all tracks that somehow ended up in Gulf intensified to hurricanes and even majors.

Wow, TS to maybe Cat 4/5 in 72 hours. That’s impressive!

[ElectricStorm]

Happy hour GFS doing happy hour GFS things

[cycloneye]

First run, long range. Leave the confetti stored. Let the runs come plus other models joining.

[Blown Away]

The latest GFS run looks fun for sure

https://i.postimg.cc/pXg5FrKT/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh144-384.gif
This is most likely overblown, but I've always been concerned that anything entering the Gulf this year has the potential to go places. Among the pre-Bonnie ensemble runs and a handful active EPS ensemble runs for July and August, almost all tracks that somehow ended up in Gulf intensified to hurricanes and even majors.

Wow, TS to maybe Cat 4/5 in 72 hours. That’s impressive!

[Blown Away]

First run, long range. Leave the confetti stored. Let the runs come plus other models joining.

Natives are getting restless, 18z GFS came through in the clutch!

[SFLcane]

Your typical gfs/Gefs Ba, ba, ba, bias.

[Category5Kaiju]

Happy hour GFS doing happy hour GFS things

But what if...just what if...this is the moment that the GFS actually hits the jackpot? Like throwing darts constantly (as it did the past many months) and finally hitting the bullseye?

[Ntxw]

Happy hour GFS doing happy hour GFS things

But what if...just what if...this is the moment that the GFS actually hits the jackpot? Like throwing darts constantly (as it did the past many months) and finally hitting the bullseye?

GFS has dueling hurricanes in the EPAC and ATL, that doesn't look likely. Plus it's in the 300+ hour range which is highly susceptible to disappearing the next run. If we can't trust them 5 days out clearly not 10 or 15 .

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS some very strong members. This could be very wrong given the GFS bias.



Compare that to the 12Z EURO ensembles and huge difference.

[MGC]

Happy hour GFS doing happy hour GFS things

Eventually the GFS will get one right.......MGC

[gatorcane]

Really slow on the models now, but one thing catching my eye in the long-range is this tropical wave which the ECMWF moves through the Bahamas while increasing the vorticity while the GFS recurves it and develops off the Carolinas (240+ hours not shown). There’s a lot of dry air around and we are probably a few weeks early for development of Cape Verde waves but something to at least watch:

It is best to see this wave on the TT relative humidity charts from 168-240 hours:




Euro 850mb vorticity

[NDG]

Really slow on the models now, but one thing catching my eye in the long-range is this tropical wave which the ECMWF moves through the Bahamas while increasing the vorticity while the GFS recurves it and develops off the Carolinas (240+ hours not shown). There’s a lot of dry air around and we are probably a few weeks early for development of Cape Verde waves but something to at least watch:

It is best to see this wave on the TT relative humidity charts from 168-240 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/B6VzjCLm/ecmwf-mid-RH-watl-fh168-240.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/LsrCR8rW/gfs-mid-RH-watl-fh168-240.gif

Euro 850mb vorticity
https://i.postimg.cc/LXxJLJ2C/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh168-240.gif

It also caught my eyes this morning, it is on its long range forecast but for at least 5 runs in a row it shows this TW to approach the Lesser Antilles next weekend and track north of the Caribbean where it could have the best UL environment for development. Very little support for development from the EPS, for now.

[cycloneye]

Really slow on the models now, but one thing catching my eye in the long-range is this tropical wave which the ECMWF moves through the Bahamas while increasing the vorticity while the GFS recurves it and develops off the Carolinas (240+ hours not shown). There’s a lot of dry air around and we are probably a few weeks early for development of Cape Verde waves but something to at least watch:

It is best to see this wave on the TT relative humidity charts from 168-240 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/B6VzjCLm/ecmwf-mid-RH-watl-fh168-240.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/LsrCR8rW/gfs-mid-RH-watl-fh168-240.gif

Euro 850mb vorticity
https://i.postimg.cc/LXxJLJ2C/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh168-240.gif

It also caught my eyes this morning, it is on its long range forecast but for at least 5 runs in a row it shows this TW to approach the Lesser Antilles next weekend and track north of the Caribbean where it could have the best UL environment for development. Very little support for development from the EPS, for now.

See it here. 2022 Tropical Waves

[NDG]

Really slow on the models now, but one thing catching my eye in the long-range is this tropical wave which the ECMWF moves through the Bahamas while increasing the vorticity while the GFS recurves it and develops off the Carolinas (240+ hours not shown). There’s a lot of dry air around and we are probably a few weeks early for development of Cape Verde waves but something to at least watch:

It is best to see this wave on the TT relative humidity charts from 168-240 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/B6VzjCLm/ecmwf-mid-RH-watl-fh168-240.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/LsrCR8rW/gfs-mid-RH-watl-fh168-240.gif

Euro 850mb vorticity
https://i.postimg.cc/LXxJLJ2C/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh168-240.gif

It also caught my eyes this morning, it is on its long range forecast but for at least 5 runs in a row it shows this TW to approach the Lesser Antilles next weekend and track north of the Caribbean where it could have the best UL environment for development. Very little support for development from the EPS, for now.

See it here. 2022 Tropical Waves

Yep, that's it. The same Euro shows it struggling with mid level dry air as it tracks across the Atlantic over the next 3-4 days but lighting up as it approaches and tracks across the northern Lesser Antilles later in the week.