Texas Spring 2022

[ElectricStorm]

Also don't want to forget about Sunday and Monday. Could be a sneaky event Sunday


Monday with some bit time hail potential in TX, and a low end tornado threat

[cheezyWXguy]

The dfw nws seems confident that the cap won’t break Monday, but I am skeptical. By 5pm on the nam and hrrr cin is virtually gone and cape is over 4000 to the immediate east of the dryline. Gonna have to side with the SPC on this one.

[bubba hotep]

[Ntxw]

Source for lift tomorrow is very weak. Models and wpc have continued to tick down again on qpf. <0.50"

[Iceresistance]

Local Met for KFOR-News 4 on Tuesday

 https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1513181610744725510

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at the 18z nam and hrrr, I am still not convinced that the precip depiction (or lack thereof) is correct given the parameter space they depict for Monday and Tuesday. There is a window on both days in which capping is next to nothing under high instability. Monday has a better chance of going unrealized due to the aforementioned lack of forcing, but I intend to watch closely for any remnant boundaries that may sink south into the area from the convection in ok and ar later tonight. As for Tuesday, I am especially suspicious of a cap bust. Either capping needs to increase, or precip depiction does, but right now the output doesn’t make sense to me.

[Haris]

12z GFS has 40s for highs around day 8

[ElectricStorm]

Looking at the 18z nam and hrrr, I am still not convinced that the precip depiction (or lack thereof) is correct given the parameter space they depict for Monday and Tuesday. There is a window on both days in which capping is next to nothing under high instability. Monday has a better chance of going unrealized due to the aforementioned lack of forcing, but I intend to watch closely for any remnant boundaries that may sink south into the area from the convection in ok and ar later tonight. As for Tuesday, I am especially suspicious of a cap bust. Either capping needs to increase, or precip depiction does, but right now the output doesn’t make sense to me.

Something about Tuesday just seems a bit off to me. I think the timing of the trough will be a bit more unfavorable than earlier forecast, I see a couple different scenarios here:
1) Total cap bust: I don't think this will happen, but it's still a possibility.
2) A few discrete cells are able to break the cap, leading to some isolated very large hail and tornado potential.
3) Timing of the trough continues to trend slower and we end up with an overnight linear slop fest. QLCS spins ups possible.
Right now I'm leaning towards 2. I think there will be storms, but I'm not seeing the big outbreak like a few of the analogues are showing. I honestly wouldn't even mind option 3 as that would likely bring a little more rain which is what we need the most right now.

Still gotta watch it of course, there's been several events where only 1 storm gets going and becomes a destructive event. This shouldn't be a non-event, but I'm not too concerned about anything crazy right now, despite the Day 3 enhanced risk.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the 18z nam and hrrr, I am still not convinced that the precip depiction (or lack thereof) is correct given the parameter space they depict for Monday and Tuesday. There is a window on both days in which capping is next to nothing under high instability. Monday has a better chance of going unrealized due to the aforementioned lack of forcing, but I intend to watch closely for any remnant boundaries that may sink south into the area from the convection in ok and ar later tonight. As for Tuesday, I am especially suspicious of a cap bust. Either capping needs to increase, or precip depiction does, but right now the output doesn’t make sense to me.

Something about Tuesday just seems a bit off to me. I think the timing of the trough will be a bit more unfavorable than earlier forecast, I see a couple different scenarios here:
1) Total cap bust: I don't think this will happen, but it's still a possibility.
2) A few discrete cells are able to break the cap, leading to some isolated very large hail and tornado potential.
3) Timing of the trough continues to trend slower and we end up with an overnight linear slop fest. QLCS spins ups possible.
Right now I'm leaning towards 2. I think there will be storms, but I'm not seeing the big outbreak like a few of the analogues are showing. I honestly wouldn't even mind option 3 as that would likely bring a little more rain which is what we need the most right now.

Still gotta watch it of course, there's been several events where only 1 storm gets going and becomes a destructive event. This shouldn't be a non-event, but I'm not too concerned about anything crazy right now, despite the Day 3 enhanced risk.

I think 2 is the most likely option. A few big storms will likely fire off the dry line. The bigger threat will be up in the Midwest Missouri and Iowa closer to better forcing and way to our east.

[Brent]

12z GFS has 40s for highs around day 8

Yeah NWS already mentioned here could be more frost and freeze warnings

[bubba hotep]

Nasty looking cell in deep south TX.

[bubba hotep]

[Ntxw]

Think DFW had a 44mph gust today. We seem to constantly be in wind advisories this year must be some kind of record. It's at least once a week.

[Haris]

fv3 would prompt MOD risk but that is the worst meso model by far accuracy wise

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 has everything east of 35 tomorrow on the model they run with.

Tuesday had some stout looking storms right at rush hour on top of 35 and DFW. Could not tell if it was a line or three large supercells......

[Iceresistance]

Thunderstorm watch in effect for Tulsa tonight.

[Iceresistance]

Big storm over Northern San Antonio


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/KEWX_loop.gif

[ElectricStorm]

Couple things for the next few days:

Tomorrow looks really dangerous for AR. Will probably see an enhanced risk for hail and maybe tornadoes at some point.

I'm very interested to see what SPC does for Tues. It looks like storm formation will be pretty isolated, but the ones that do form are gonna be dangerous. Hopefully they avoid the metro areas.

Wednesday looks big, will probably be a moderate risk day, although maybe not on this coming outlook.

[Lagreeneyes03]

12z GFS has 40s for highs around day 8

That's just wrong...so wrong.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has 40s for highs around day 8

That's just wrong...so wrong.

The good news is that the Highs in the 40s in Southern & Western Texas are gone, replaced by the 50s in Northern Texas to the 80s/90s in Austin & San Antonio