Tropical Storm Ophelia

[nequad]

The GFS will be over an hour late.

Going to be a late night ...

[Thunder44]

0z NOGAPS is out. It takes it generally NNE, east of the NC outer banks to near Cape Cod by Friday morning.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005091100

[spinfan4eva]

Keep on moving the track to the right, eventually, it will be a Florida storm again at this rate

[Regit]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Is this headed SSE now, or is that just an illusion? It does seem that the entire system, in the last frame, shifted South.

[THead]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Is this headed SSE now, or is that just an illusion? It does seem that the entire system, in the last frame, shifted South.

Not sure but we're gettin steady showers in S. Fla. from the extension of O's tail..making for a wet night here.

[superfly]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Is this headed SSE now, or is that just an illusion? It does seem that the entire system, in the last frame, shifted South.

This was forecast.

"THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART OF THAT TIME. "

[Regit]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Is this headed SSE now, or is that just an illusion? It does seem that the entire system, in the last frame, shifted South.

This was forecast.

"THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART OF THAT TIME. "

Yes, but it being forecast and it happening are two very different things.

[spinfan4eva]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Is this headed SSE now, or is that just an illusion? It does seem that the entire system, in the last frame, shifted South.

From NHC 11pm EDT (they dont know where it going to go and is Fla in the southeast?)

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

NHC Discussion:

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.
THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART
OF THAT TIME.

Current synoptics: It could move Southwest from the high to the west or North from the high to the east

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE OPHELIA HARDLY MOVING...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST... OR ABOUT 255
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250
MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES... 240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB... 28.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[spinfan4eva]

NHC Quote

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern United States coast
should monitor the progress of Ophelia.

Fla included?

NHC Quote

Ophelia is drifting slowly toward the south-southwest and little
motion is expected today.

Hopefully it will loop back north as the models say and not be a big problem. We Shall see

[ameriwx2003]

Wow... the OZ ECMWF doesn't bode well at all for the Carolinas to New England..
http://www.ecmwf.int/

[Thunder44]

[LarryWx]

NHC Quote

NHC Quote

Ophelia is drifting slowly toward the south-southwest and little
motion is expected today.

Hopefully it will loop back north as the models say and not be a big problem. We Shall see

She drifted 0.2 degrees southward in the last three hours. The NHC tracks have recently been assuming virtually no latitude drop (0.1 for the latest track) prior to a turn to the W and then WNW. She now being at 31.6N is already further south than the furthest south point of the 11 PM track, 31.7N. If this is just a blip, it is no big deal. However, if this southward drift were to continue into much of tomorrow, this would quickly call into question the NHC 11 PM track, and we could again be talking about landfall threats a good bit further south imho.

[fci]

NHC Quote

NHC Quote

Ophelia is drifting slowly toward the south-southwest and little
motion is expected today.

Hopefully it will loop back north as the models say and not be a big problem. We Shall see

She drifted 0.2 degrees southward in the last three hours. The NHC tracks have recently been assuming virtually no latitude drop (0.1 for the latest track) prior to a turn to the W and then WNW. She now being at 31.6N is already further south than the furthest south point of the 11 PM track, 31.7N. If this is just a blip, it is no big deal. However, if this southward drift were to continue into much of tomorrow, this would quickly call into question the NHC 11 PM track, and we could again be talking about landfall threats a good bit further south imho.

In spite of the temporary jog south, seems like guidance has it going to skirt the outer banks, if at all.

[ameriwx2003]

Larrywx.. Good obervation and good points about future track.The 0Z Candian is a good LOL. I doubt though you or anyone else thinks it will get that far south .

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[nequad]

Beware of the 00Z run of the GFS . It has only completed through 60 hours.

[LarryWx]

I feel so blind during this early AM with it being a satellite eclipse period as well as there being no updated long-range radar for the time-being. Long-range radar hasn't updated since 12:22 AM EDT.

But, I did just notice that there is a vortex report out as of 2:29 AM EDT, giving coordinates of 31.7N, 75.9W. So, perhaps that southward drift is finished?

[Thunder44]

937
WHXX01 KWBC 110636
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050911 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050911 0600 050911 1800 050912 0600 050912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
LBAR 31.7N 75.9W 31.7N 75.0W 31.8N 74.5W 31.5N 73.5W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050913 0600 050914 0600 050915 0600 050916 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
LBAR 31.1N 72.1W 29.6N 69.9W 29.7N 68.5W 31.3N 68.6W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 75.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 31.7N LONM12 = 76.2W DIRM12 = 63DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 30.9N LONM24 = 76.9W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 130NM

Just the LBAR. But 6z models are initializing at 75kts.

[JamesFromMaine2]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 110841
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...OPHELIA SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT REMAINS STATIONARY...
...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FROM
SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES... 405 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 245 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$

[JamesFromMaine2]